La Liga 2025-2026: Real Madrid vs Alaves Prediction - 21 Apr 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Real Madrid

Home Team
85%
VS

Alaves

Away Team
6%
Draw: 8%
Over 2.5: 68%
Under 2.5: 32%
Goal: 61%
No Goal: 39%
Expected Corners: 9.6
Expected Shots: 28.1

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Barcelona 31 26 1 4 84 30 54 79
2 Real Madrid 31 22 4 5 65 29 36 70
3 Villarreal 31 19 4 8 56 36 20 61
4 Ath Madrid 31 17 6 8 51 32 19 57
5 Betis 31 11 13 7 45 38 7 46
6 Celta 31 11 11 9 44 40 4 44
7 Sociedad 31 11 9 11 49 48 1 42
8 Getafe 31 12 5 14 27 32 -5 41
9 Osasuna 31 10 9 12 37 38 -1 39
10 Espanol 31 10 8 13 37 48 -11 38
11 Betis 31 11 5 15 33 45 -12 38
12 Girona 31 9 11 11 33 45 -12 38
13 Vallecano 31 8 11 12 29 38 -9 35
14 Valencia 31 9 8 14 34 46 -12 35
15 Mallorca 31 9 7 15 39 48 -9 34
16 Sevilla 31 9 7 15 39 51 -12 34
17 Alaves 31 8 9 14 35 46 -11 33
18 Elche 31 7 11 13 39 47 -8 32
19 Levante 31 7 8 16 35 50 -15 29
20 Oviedo 31 6 9 16 24 48 -24 27

Recent Trends

Real Madrid D L W W W

  • Last Match: D vs Girona (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Mallorca (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Ath Madrid (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Elche (Goals: 4 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Celta (Goals: 2 - 1)

Alaves D D W D L

  • Last Match: D vs Sociedad (Goals: 3 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Osasuna (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Celta (Goals: 4 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Villarreal (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Valencia (Goals: 2 - 3)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Real Madrid

xG (avg) 2.35
xGA (avg) 1.08
Clean Sheets 0

Alaves

xG (avg) 1.44
xGA (avg) 1.73
Clean Sheets 0

Key Prediction Insights

Real Madrid are clear favourites at home, with an 85.0% probability of victory against an Alaves side battling at the lower end of the table. Madrid come into this second in La Liga on 70 points, while Alaves sit 17th on 33 points and still looking over their shoulder at the relegation zone. The model also leans strongly towards goals, with an over 2.5 prediction at 68.0% and both teams to score (“goal”) rated at 61.0%.

Match Analysis

Madrid’s recent run has been mixed in terms of results but lively in terms of performances. A 3-2 home win over Atletico showed their attacking punch but also their defensive vulnerability, followed by a 2-1 defeat away to Mallorca that underlined how they can be punished on the road. Back at home, they were held 1-1 by Girona despite dominating shots 22-10 and corners 10-1, a reminder that they often create enough but aren’t always ruthless. Over the last five games they’ve averaged 2.4 goals scored and 1.2 conceded, with xG figures of 2.352 for and 1.076 against and, notably, no clean sheets in that stretch. Alaves arrive in decent attacking form but leaking heavily at the back. Their last three matches have finished 4-3, 2-2 and 3-3, with a win at Celta and draws against Osasuna and Sociedad – a nine-goal thriller in San Sebastián and another high-scoring away performance at Balaídos. They’ve averaged 2.0 goals scored and 2.4 conceded over their last five, with xG of 1.436 for and 1.73 against, and also no clean sheets. That profile – plenty of chances created, plenty allowed – is exactly the kind of open game that tends to suit Madrid at the Bernabéu.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Real Madrid
Goals in last 5 matches
Alaves
Goals in last 5 matches
The over 2.5 prediction at 68.0% looks very well supported by the recent numbers. Two of Real Madrid’s last three league games went over 2.5 goals (3-2 vs Atlético, 2-1 at Mallorca), with only the 1-1 draw against Girona staying under. Alaves are even more extreme: all three of their latest matches – 4-3, 2-2, 3-3 – have cleared the 2.5 line comfortably. With Madrid averaging 2.4 scored and 1.2 conceded, Alaves at 2.0 scored and 2.4 conceded, and both sides’ xG profiles clearly positive in attack, everything points towards another high-scoring night rather than an under 2.5 grind.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Real Madrid
Corners in last 5 matches
Alaves
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction sits at 9.62 total, which fits the way these two have been playing. Madrid’s last three produced 11, 10 and 8 corners (vs Girona, Mallorca and Atlético), with heavy dominance at home – particularly that 10-1 count against Girona – suggesting they rack up repeated set-piece situations when they pin teams back. Alaves’ recent games have been more modest in corner volume (10, 8 and 5 totals), but their willingness to attack, even away from home, keeps the numbers respectable. Put together, the predicted corners tally around 9–10 feels realistic for a match where Madrid will press high and Alaves will still try to break forward.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Real Madrid
Shots in last 5 matches
Alaves
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
With expected shots projected at 28.14, this has all the makings of a busy night for both goalkeepers. Madrid’s last three have seen shot totals of 32 (22-10 vs Girona), 21 (15-6 at Mallorca) and 30 (17-13 vs Atlético), underlining a consistent ability to generate high volume. Alaves have been similarly open: 24 shots in their 3-3 at Sociedad, 26 in the 2-2 with Osasuna, and 26 again in the 4-3 win at Celta. That attacking intent from both sides lines up neatly with the xG numbers and supports a shots prediction close to the 28-mark rather than a cagey contest.

Final Prediction

Real Madrid’s edge comes from superior firepower, stronger underlying numbers and home advantage, all reinforced by an 85.0% win probability. Alaves’ recent goal-fests show they can hurt teams but also leave huge gaps, which is dangerous against a side creating more than two expected goals per game. The key factor to watch will be how long Alaves can resist Madrid’s sustained pressure; if the hosts strike early, this could turn into the kind of open, high-scoring game the data is pointing towards.

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