La Liga 2025-2026: Real Madrid vs Ath Bilbao Prediction - 23 May 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Real Madrid

Home Team
67%
VS

Ath Bilbao

Away Team
16%
Draw: 17%
Over 2.5: 60%
Under 2.5: 40%
Goal: 57%
No Goal: 43%
Expected Corners: 9.7
Expected Shots: 26.2
Expected Spread: +0.9

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Barcelona 37 31 1 5 94 33 61 94
2 Real Madrid 37 26 5 6 73 33 40 83
3 Villarreal 37 21 6 10 67 45 22 69
4 Ath Madrid 37 21 6 10 61 39 22 69
5 Betis 37 14 15 8 57 47 10 57
6 Celta 37 13 12 12 52 48 4 51
7 Getafe 37 14 6 17 31 38 -7 48
8 Vallecano 37 11 14 12 39 43 -4 47
9 Valencia 37 12 10 15 43 54 -11 46
10 Sociedad 37 11 12 14 58 60 -2 45
11 Espanol 37 12 9 16 42 54 -12 45
12 Betis 37 13 6 18 41 54 -13 45
13 Sevilla 37 12 7 18 46 59 -13 43
14 Alaves 37 11 10 16 43 54 -11 43
15 Levante 37 11 9 17 46 59 -13 42
16 Osasuna 37 11 9 17 44 49 -5 42
17 Elche 37 10 12 15 48 56 -8 42
18 Girona 37 9 13 15 38 54 -16 40
19 Mallorca 37 10 9 18 44 57 -13 39
20 Oviedo 37 6 11 20 26 57 -31 29

Recent Trends

Real Madrid W W L W D

  • Last Match: W vs Sevilla (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Oviedo (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Barcelona (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Espanol (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Betis (Goals: 1 - 1)

Ath Bilbao D L L W L

  • Last Match: D vs Celta (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Espanol (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Valencia (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Alaves (Goals: 4 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Ath Madrid (Goals: 2 - 3)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Real Madrid

xG (avg) 1.98
xGA (avg) 1.21
Clean Sheets 3

Ath Bilbao

xG (avg) 1.05
xGA (avg) 1.62
Clean Sheets 0

Key Prediction Insights

Real Madrid are strong favourites at the Bernabéu, with a 67.0% chance of victory against Athletic Bilbao’s 16.0% and a 17.0% probability of a draw. Madrid sit 2nd in La Liga on 83 points, while Athletic are outside the European spots, and the model points towards a home win combined with an over 2.5 prediction at 60.0% for total goals.

Match Analysis

Madrid come into this one with two wins from their last three, beating Sevilla 1-0 away and Oviedo 2-0 at home, either side of a 2-0 defeat at Barcelona. Those performances underline a solid defensive base – just one goal conceded in those two victories – combined with enough attacking edge to control games, especially at home as shown by the 19 shots generated against Oviedo. Across the last five matches, they have averaged 2.4 goals scored and only 1.0 conceded, with xG of 1.984 for and 1.212 against, plus three clean sheets, all pointing to a side largely in command. Athletic Bilbao arrive in much shakier form: one point from their last three matches, with a 1-1 draw at home to Celta preceded by back-to-back defeats against Espanyol (0-2 away) and Valencia (0-1 at home). The pattern is worrying: they’ve failed to score in two of those games, yet they haven’t been passive – 27 shots and 13 corners against Celta, 14 shots and 13 corners against Valencia suggest they are creating platforms but lack cutting edge. Over their last five, they average 1.2 goals scored and 2.4 conceded, with xG for at 1.05 and against at 1.618, and no clean sheets, which is a poor backdrop for a visit to one of the league’s most efficient attacks.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Real Madrid
Goals in last 5 matches
Ath Bilbao
Goals in last 5 matches
The model leans to an over 2.5 prediction with a 60.0% probability. None of Real Madrid’s last three league games went over 2.5 goals (1-0, 2-0, 0-2), but their broader averages of 2.4 scored and 1.0 conceded per game, backed by almost 2.0 xG created, suggest capacity for a higher-scoring outing. Athletic’s last three have all been under 2.5 (1-1, 0-2, 0-1), yet their combination of 1.2 scored, 2.4 conceded and xG against of 1.618 hints that, if Madrid are clinical, this under 2.5 trend could be broken.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Real Madrid
Corners in last 5 matches
Ath Bilbao
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total corners for this match is 9.69, pointing to a moderately busy afternoon from wide areas. Real Madrid’s last three have produced 8, 9 and 12 total corners respectively, while Athletic’s have yielded 5, 17 and 18, underlining how their direct, front-foot style often inflates the corners count. Given both teams’ willingness to attack – Madrid at home and Athletic relying heavily on crosses – a corners prediction around the 9–11 range seems well supported by recent numbers.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Real Madrid
Shots in last 5 matches
Ath Bilbao
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots for this game stand at 26.23 in total. Madrid’s recent matches saw 26, 28 and 18 shots combined, while Athletic’s produced 30, 23 and 21, reflecting two sides that regularly generate and allow attempts on goal. With Madrid’s xG at 1.984 and Athletic’s xG against at 1.618, a shots prediction in the mid‑20s fits an encounter where the hosts should dominate volume but the visitors still contribute.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Real Madrid wins by X goals. Negative = Ath Bilbao wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Real Madrid vs Ath Bilbao with expected spread of +0.9
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Real Madrid vs Ath Bilbao
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The goal spread prediction has an expected spread of +0.87 in favour of Real Madrid, indicating they are projected to win by close to a single goal. Across the last three, Madrid have a goal difference of +1 (3 scored, 2 conceded), while Athletic sit at -3 (1 scored, 4 conceded), which aligns with the model’s view of a narrow but clear home edge. That +0.87 expected spread also dovetails with the 67.0% home-win probability and Madrid’s stronger balance between attack and defence.

Final Prediction

Real Madrid’s superior form, defensive solidity and more efficient attack give them a clear advantage over an Athletic side that creates plenty but concedes too much and struggles to convert. The key factor to watch will be whether Athletic’s volume of shots and corners can trouble Madrid’s back line, or if the home side’s clinical finishing quickly turns the night into another routine Bernabéu win.

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