La Liga 2025-2026: Real Madrid vs Ath Madrid Prediction - 22 Mar 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Real Madrid

Home Team
68%
VS

Ath Madrid

Away Team
15%
Draw: 17%
Over 2.5: 61%
Under 2.5: 39%
Goal: 52%
No Goal: 48%
Expected Corners: 9.8
Expected Shots: 25.3

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Barcelona 28 23 1 4 77 28 49 70
2 Real Madrid 28 21 3 4 60 24 36 66
3 Ath Madrid 28 17 6 5 47 25 22 57
4 Villarreal 28 17 4 7 51 33 18 55
5 Betis 28 11 11 6 43 35 8 44
6 Celta 28 10 11 7 38 31 7 41
7 Sociedad 28 10 8 10 43 42 1 38
8 Espanol 28 10 7 11 35 42 -7 37
9 Getafe 28 10 5 13 23 30 -7 35
10 Betis 28 10 5 13 30 40 -10 35
11 Osasuna 28 9 7 12 33 35 -2 34
12 Girona 28 8 10 10 31 43 -12 34
13 Vallecano 28 7 11 10 28 34 -6 32
14 Valencia 28 8 8 12 30 42 -12 32
15 Sevilla 28 8 7 13 37 47 -10 31
16 Mallorca 28 7 7 14 33 45 -12 28
17 Alaves 28 7 7 14 26 38 -12 28
18 Elche 28 5 11 12 36 45 -9 26
19 Levante 28 5 8 15 30 46 -16 23
20 Oviedo 28 4 9 15 18 44 -26 21

Recent Trends

Real Madrid W W L L W

  • Last Match: W vs Elche (Goals: 4 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Celta (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Getafe (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Osasuna (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Sociedad (Goals: 4 - 1)

Ath Madrid W W W W L

  • Last Match: W vs Getafe (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Sociedad (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Oviedo (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Espanol (Goals: 4 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Vallecano (Goals: 0 - 3)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Real Madrid

xG (avg) 2.33
xGA (avg) 1.07
Clean Sheets 0

Ath Madrid

xG (avg) 0.97
xGA (avg) 1.50
Clean Sheets 2

Key Prediction Insights

Real Madrid are favoured to take the derby, with a 68.0% probability of a home win against just 15.0% for Atlético and 17.0% for the draw. Second in La Liga on 66 points, Madrid are chasing leaders Barcelona, while third-placed Atlético sit on 57 points and are trying to cement their Champions League place. The model leans towards a high-scoring clash, with an over 2.5 prediction at 61.0% and a goal for both teams rated at 52.0%.

Match Analysis

Real Madrid come into this derby on the back of two wins and one defeat in their last three games, scoring 6 and conceding 3. The 4-1 home victory over Elche underlined their attacking power, while the 2-1 away win at Celta showed they can edge tight contests; the slip was the 0-1 home loss to Getafe despite racking up 18 shots and 10 corners. Over their last five matches, they’ve averaged 2.4 goals scored and only 0.8 conceded, backed up by an impressive 2.332 expected goals (xG) created per game and 1.074 xG allowed – numbers that speak to sustained attacking pressure even when the final scoreline doesn’t fully reflect it. Atlético arrive in good form with three straight wins: 1-0 against Getafe, a 3-2 thriller versus Real Sociedad and a 1-0 success away to Oviedo. That run shows a blend of defensive control and the ability to get involved in more open games when needed. However, their advanced metrics are more modest: 1.0 goal scored and 0.8 conceded on average over the last five, with just 0.97 xG for per match versus 1.498 xG against, suggesting opponents are creating decent chances even if they’re not always taking them. Against a Real Madrid side that consistently generates high xG, that defensive bending could easily turn into breaking.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Real Madrid
Goals in last 5 matches
Ath Madrid
Goals in last 5 matches
The model goes for over 2.5 goals with a 61.0% probability, and the recent patterns back that over 2.5 prediction. Two of Real Madrid’s last three league games went over 2.5 goals (4-1 vs Elche, 2-1 vs Celta), with only the 0-1 loss to Getafe falling under. Atlético’s last three have been tighter, with two under 2.5 (1-0 vs Getafe, 1-0 vs Oviedo) and one over 2.5 (3-2 vs Sociedad), but their higher xG conceded (1.498) against Madrid’s 2.4 goals and 2.332 xG per game suggests this derby is more likely to open up than recent Atlético scorelines indicate.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Real Madrid
Corners in last 5 matches
Ath Madrid
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The predicted corners total is 9.85, which fits how both sides have been playing. Real Madrid’s last three matches produced corner counts of 5-4, 6-1 and 10-2, showing they regularly pin opponents back and rack up set-piece situations. Atlético’s games brought 10-3, 8-1 and 3-8 in corners, underlining that their matches tend to be busy in wide areas at both ends. This corners prediction of around ten suits a derby where Madrid attack aggressively and Atlético are happy to respond with direct counters and plenty of balls into the box.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Real Madrid
Shots in last 5 matches
Ath Madrid
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The shots prediction is for 25.29 total efforts, which is well-aligned with recent performances. Real Madrid have taken 14, 14 and 18 shots in their last three, showing a consistently high output. Atlético have fired 16, 24 and 12 shots over the same span, with opponents also getting chances against them. Combining that with Madrid’s 2.332 xG and Atlético’s 0.97 xG for, the expected shots figure reflects a match where both teams get attempts away, but the hosts are more clinical and efficient in turning volume into real danger.

Final Prediction

Real Madrid’s edge lies in their superior attacking numbers and home form: they create more, concede less in chance quality, and have more ways to hurt an Atlético defence that has allowed 1.498 xG per game recently. If Atlético can keep the game tight and lean on their three-match winning streak, they’ll have a chance, but the balance of evidence points to Madrid’s firepower deciding it. Watch the battle in midfield and the volume of Madrid’s wide deliveries – that’s where the derby is most likely to tilt.

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