La Liga 2025-2026: Real Madrid vs Girona Prediction - 10 Apr 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Real Madrid

Home Team
81%
VS

Girona

Away Team
8%
Draw: 11%
Over 2.5: 62%
Under 2.5: 38%
Goal: 59%
No Goal: 41%
Expected Corners: 9.9
Expected Shots: 27.0

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Barcelona 30 25 1 4 80 29 51 76
2 Real Madrid 30 22 3 5 64 28 36 69
3 Villarreal 30 18 4 8 54 35 19 58
4 Ath Madrid 30 17 6 7 50 30 20 57
5 Betis 30 11 12 7 44 37 7 45
6 Celta 30 11 11 8 44 37 7 44
7 Sociedad 30 11 8 11 46 45 1 41
8 Getafe 30 12 5 13 27 31 -4 41
9 Osasuna 30 10 8 12 36 37 -1 38
10 Espanol 30 10 8 12 36 44 -8 38
11 Betis 30 11 5 14 32 43 -11 38
12 Girona 30 9 10 11 32 44 -12 37
13 Vallecano 30 8 11 11 29 35 -6 35
14 Valencia 30 9 8 13 34 45 -11 35
15 Alaves 30 8 8 14 32 43 -11 32
16 Mallorca 30 8 7 15 36 48 -12 31
17 Sevilla 30 8 7 15 37 50 -13 31
18 Elche 30 6 11 13 38 47 -9 29
19 Levante 30 6 8 16 34 50 -16 26
20 Oviedo 30 5 9 16 21 48 -27 24

Recent Trends

Real Madrid L W W W L

  • Last Match: L vs Mallorca (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Ath Madrid (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Elche (Goals: 4 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Celta (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Getafe (Goals: 0 - 1)

Girona W L W D L

  • Last Match: W vs Villarreal (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Osasuna (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Ath Bilbao (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Levante (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Celta (Goals: 1 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Real Madrid

xG (avg) 2.42
xGA (avg) 1.20
Clean Sheets 0

Girona

xG (avg) 1.49
xGA (avg) 1.49
Clean Sheets 2

Key Prediction Insights

Real Madrid are clear favourites at the Bernabéu, with an 81.0% probability of taking all three points against a Girona side given just an 8.0% chance, and an 11.0% likelihood of a draw. The model points to a home win and an over 2.5 prediction, with 62.0% probability of at least three goals. In the table, Madrid sit 2nd on 69 points chasing leaders Barcelona, while Girona are 12th on 37 points and comfortably mid‑table.

Match Analysis

Madrid come in from a mixed but largely positive spell: a 4-1 home win over Elche, a thrilling 3-2 derby victory against Atlético, and a 2-1 slip at Mallorca. Those three games underline their attacking power – 8 goals scored – but also a degree of defensive looseness, conceding five and failing to keep a single clean sheet. The advanced numbers back this up: over the last five matches they’ve averaged 2.6 goals scored and 2.416 expected goals, while conceding 1.2 per game from 1.196 expected goals against. Girona’s recent form has been more erratic but quietly resilient. They’ve beaten Athletic Bilbao 3-0 and Villarreal 1-0 at home, either side of a flat 1-0 defeat away to Osasuna. They’ve only scored 4 goals in their last three, but they’ve also kept two clean sheets in that run and conceded just once in those two home wins. Over their last five games, Girona average only 0.8 goals scored and 1.2 conceded, yet their expected goals (1.494 for, 1.49 against) suggest they are creating and allowing roughly balanced chances, perhaps underperforming slightly in attack.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Real Madrid
Goals in last 5 matches
Girona
Goals in last 5 matches
The over 2.5 prediction carries a 62.0% probability, and the recent numbers lean that way. Two of Real Madrid’s last three matches have gone over 2.5 goals (4-1 vs Elche, 3-2 vs Atlético), with only the 2-1 defeat at Mallorca finishing just above that line in total goals but still reflecting an open game. For Girona, two of their last three have gone under 2.5 (1-0 vs Villarreal, 0-1 at Osasuna) and only the 3-0 win over Athletic cleared it, yet their averages of 0.8 scored and 1.2 conceded, combined with 1.494 xG for and 1.49 xG against, point to a match where Madrid’s far sharper attack should push the total over.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Real Madrid
Corners in last 5 matches
Girona
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction points to around 9.87 total corners, suggesting a game with steady but not frantic wide play. Madrid’s last three have produced 4, 4 and 5 corners for them (and 6, 1 and 4 against), reflecting a side that attacks but doesn’t rely solely on hitting the byline. Girona’s matches have been corner-heavy overall – they’ve had 7, 2 and 2 themselves, while facing 4, 6 and 9 – which supports the idea that Madrid’s pressure and Girona’s counter-attacking could combine to hit the predicted corners range.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Real Madrid
Shots in last 5 matches
Girona
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots figure of 27.03 suggests a match with a healthy amount of attempts on goal, in line with Madrid’s attacking output. Over their last three, Madrid have taken 14, 17 and 15 shots, while allowing 11, 13 and 6 – consistent with a dominant side that still gives opponents moments. Girona’s recent games show 14, 5 and 10 shots for, versus 20, 19 and 9 against, numbers that fit an underdog likely to absorb pressure; this supports a shots prediction where Madrid’s superior xG (2.416 per game) should translate into a high volume of efforts.

Final Prediction

Real Madrid’s edge lies in their firepower: a stronger attack, higher expected goals and home advantage against a Girona team that struggles to score regularly. Girona’s organised defence and two recent clean sheets give them a puncher’s chance of keeping it tight, but the balance of probabilities is heavily tilted towards a home win. The key factor to watch will be whether Girona can withstand Madrid’s early pressure – if they crack, the scoreline could quickly reflect the over 2.5 goals outlook.

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