La Liga 2025-2026: Sevilla vs Alaves Prediction - 14 Feb 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Sevilla

Home Team
55%
VS

Alaves

Away Team
22%
Draw: 23%
Over 2.5: 49%
Under 2.5: 51%
Goal: 57%
No Goal: 43%
Expected Corners: 9.8
Expected Shots: 24.7

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Barcelona 23 19 1 3 63 23 40 58
2 Real Madrid 23 18 3 2 49 18 31 57
3 Ath Madrid 23 13 6 4 38 18 20 45
4 Villarreal 22 14 3 5 43 24 19 45
5 Betis 23 10 8 5 37 28 9 38
6 Espanol 23 10 4 9 27 31 -4 34
7 Celta 23 8 9 6 30 25 5 33
8 Sociedad 23 8 7 8 33 31 2 31
9 Osasuna 23 8 5 10 28 28 0 29
10 Betis 23 8 4 11 25 33 -8 28
11 Getafe 23 7 5 11 18 27 -9 26
12 Girona 23 6 8 9 22 37 -15 26
13 Sevilla 23 7 4 12 30 38 -8 25
14 Alaves 23 7 4 12 20 29 -9 25
15 Elche 23 5 9 9 31 35 -4 24
16 Mallorca 23 6 6 11 28 37 -9 24
17 Valencia 23 5 8 10 23 37 -14 23
18 Vallecano 22 5 7 10 18 30 -12 22
19 Levante 22 4 6 12 26 38 -12 18
20 Oviedo 22 3 7 12 12 34 -22 16

Recent Trends

Sevilla D L W D L

  • Last Match: D vs Girona (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Mallorca (Goals: 1 - 4)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Ath Bilbao (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Elche (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Celta (Goals: 0 - 1)

Alaves L W W L L

  • Last Match: L vs Getafe (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Espanol (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Betis (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Ath Madrid (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Villarreal (Goals: 1 - 3)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Sevilla

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.33
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.73
# Clean Sheets: 0

Alaves

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.24
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.85
# Clean Sheets: 0

Key Prediction Insights

Sevilla are favoured to take all three points at home, with a 55.0% probability of a home win against Alaves’ 22.0% chance and a 23.0% likelihood of a draw. The model leans towards a tight game with an under 2.5 goals prediction (49.0% for under), despite a 57.0% chance that both teams score. In the table, Sevilla sit 13th and Alaves 14th, level on 25 points after 23 matches, underlining how big this is in the mid-table and relegation battle context.

Match Analysis

Sevilla come into this clash with a mixed set of recent results: a 2-1 home win over Athletic Bilbao, a 1-1 home draw with Girona, and a heavy 4-1 away loss at Mallorca. At home they’ve looked more competitive, scoring in both recent matches and generating 10 and 11 shots respectively, though the defensive fragility seen in Mallorca shows they are far from solid. Over their last five games they average 1.4 goals scored and 1.2 conceded, with expected goals at 1.328 for and 1.732 against, and notably no clean sheets in that period. Alaves have quietly pieced together some resilience, with back-to-back 2-1 wins against Betis and away at Espanol before a 2-0 home defeat to Getafe. They’ve been in tight contests, with all three recent matches decided by one or two goals, and their shot counts (13, 11, 17 taken) suggest they can threaten but lack real cutting edge. Across the last five, they average just 0.8 goals scored and 2.2 conceded, with xG of 1.236 for and 1.85 against, also with no clean sheets. Both sides’ defensive numbers point to vulnerability, but Alaves’ weaker goal output, especially compared to Sevilla’s home form, tilts the balance towards the hosts.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Sevilla
Goals in last 5 matches
Alaves
Goals in last 5 matches
The model’s over 2.5 prediction leans slightly towards under 2.5 goals, with under favoured at 49.0%. Two of Sevilla’s last three matches went over 2.5 goals (4-1 vs Mallorca, 2-1 vs Athletic), while the Girona draw stayed under with just two goals. For Alaves, two of their last three also went over 2.5 (both 2-1 wins), with only the 2-0 loss to Getafe falling under. Even with these recent over-leaning scorelines, the average goals (Sevilla 1.4 scored/1.2 conceded, Alaves 0.8 scored/2.2 conceded) and relatively modest xG numbers suggest a cautious under 2.5 outcome is more likely in a tense mid-table clash.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Sevilla
Corners in last 5 matches
Alaves
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction points to a total of around 9.8 corners in this match. Sevilla’s last three have produced 10, 12 and 10 total corners, with them often edging the count (5-5 vs Athletic, 5-7 vs Girona, 8-4 at Mallorca), reflecting a side that still pushes forward at home and forces blocks. Alaves games have seen 9, 6 and 10 corners, with their more balanced and reactive style generating a solid but not extreme number of set-piece situations. Combining both profiles, the predicted corners tally just under double figures fits a match where Sevilla have more of the ball but Alaves still break often enough to earn a few of their own.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Sevilla
Shots in last 5 matches
Alaves
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The shots prediction is for around 24.7 expected shots in total. Sevilla’s last three have featured 20, 26 and 26 total efforts, while Alaves’ have had 30, 21 and 35, suggesting both teams are involved in matches with plenty of attempts even if the finishing isn’t always clinical. That aligns with their xG: Sevilla (1.328 for, 1.732 against) and Alaves (1.236 for, 1.85 against) regularly generate chances without turning them into high-scoring games, supporting an expected shots figure in the mid‑20s.

Final Prediction

Sevilla’s home advantage, slightly stronger attacking numbers, and better recent results against stronger opposition give them an edge over Alaves, even if the table has them level on points. Alaves’ low goal output and tendency to concede over two goals on average tilt the prediction towards a narrow Sevilla win in a cagey contest. A key factor to watch will be how Sevilla’s attack matches up against an Alaves defence that gives up chances but can still drag matches into tight, low-scoring territory.

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