La Liga 2025-2026: Sevilla vs Ath Madrid Prediction - 11 Apr 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Sevilla

Home Team
25%
VS

Ath Madrid

Away Team
53%
Draw: 22%
Over 2.5: 58%
Under 2.5: 42%
Goal: 50%
No Goal: 50%
Expected Corners: 8.9
Expected Shots: 23.5

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Barcelona 30 25 1 4 80 29 51 76
2 Real Madrid 30 22 3 5 64 28 36 69
3 Villarreal 30 18 4 8 54 35 19 58
4 Ath Madrid 30 17 6 7 50 30 20 57
5 Betis 30 11 12 7 44 37 7 45
6 Celta 30 11 11 8 44 37 7 44
7 Sociedad 30 11 8 11 46 45 1 41
8 Getafe 30 12 5 13 27 31 -4 41
9 Osasuna 30 10 8 12 36 37 -1 38
10 Espanol 30 10 8 12 36 44 -8 38
11 Betis 30 11 5 14 32 43 -11 38
12 Girona 30 9 10 11 32 44 -12 37
13 Vallecano 30 8 11 11 29 35 -6 35
14 Valencia 30 9 8 13 34 45 -11 35
15 Alaves 30 8 8 14 32 43 -11 32
16 Mallorca 30 8 7 15 36 48 -12 31
17 Sevilla 30 8 7 15 37 50 -13 31
18 Elche 30 6 11 13 38 47 -9 29
19 Levante 30 6 8 16 34 50 -16 26
20 Oviedo 30 5 9 16 21 48 -27 24

Recent Trends

Sevilla L L L D D

  • Last Match: L vs Oviedo (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Valencia (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Barcelona (Goals: 2 - 5)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Vallecano (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Betis (Goals: 2 - 2)

Ath Madrid L L W W W

  • Last Match: L vs Barcelona (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Real Madrid (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Getafe (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Sociedad (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Oviedo (Goals: 1 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Sevilla

xG (avg) 0.88
xGA (avg) 1.56
Clean Sheets 0

Ath Madrid

xG (avg) 1.00
xGA (avg) 1.87
Clean Sheets 2

Key Prediction Insights

Atlético Madrid are favoured to take all three points in Seville, with a 53.0% chance of an away win against just 25.0% for Sevilla, who sit a worrying 17th in La Liga compared to Atlético’s push for the Champions League places in 4th. The model also points to an open game, with an over 2.5 goals prediction at 58.0% probability. With Sevilla hovering just above the relegation zone and Atlético chasing the top three, the stakes are high at both ends of the table.

Match Analysis

Sevilla come into this on a brutal run of three straight defeats: 0-1 at Oviedo, 0-2 at home to Valencia and a 2-5 beating at Barcelona. The pattern is clear – defensive fragility and a lack of cutting edge. They’ve scored just 1.0 goal per game on average over their last five, while conceding 1.2, and crucially their expected goals for that period sits at only 0.88. That suggests their attack isn’t just unlucky; it’s struggling to create high-quality chances. With no clean sheets in their last five, they look vulnerable against better attacks. Atlético are not exactly flying either, with back-to-back defeats to Barcelona (1-2) and Real Madrid (2-3) before a narrow 1-0 home win over Getafe. Still, those losses came against the top two, and they created a reasonable volume of attempts: 13 shots away to Real Madrid and 16 at home to Getafe. Over their last five games they average 0.8 goals scored and 1.4 conceded, with xG for at 0.998 and xG against up at 1.868 – a sign that they’ve been allowing more chances than usual under Simeone but still carry enough threat going forward. Given the quality gap reflected in the table – 57 points for Atlético versus Sevilla’s 31 – and both sides’ recent trends, Atlético’s greater discipline and slightly higher attacking production give them a clear edge, even if their form has been patchy.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Sevilla
Goals in last 5 matches
Ath Madrid
Goals in last 5 matches
The over 2.5 prediction at 58.0% leans towards goals in this one. Two of Sevilla’s last three matches have gone over 2.5 goals (0-1, 0-2, 2-5), with that heavy defeat at Barcelona highlighting their defensive issues. Atlético have seen two of their last three also go over 2.5 (1-2 vs Barcelona, 2-3 vs Real Madrid, 1-0 vs Getafe). With Sevilla conceding 1.2 goals per game and 1.564 xG against, and Atlético allowing 1.4 goals and 1.868 xG against on average, both defences look open enough to support the over 2.5 call despite neither attack being prolific on paper.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Sevilla
Corners in last 5 matches
Ath Madrid
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The model points to 8.95 predicted corners, hinting at a game with a moderate but not extreme number of set-piece situations. Sevilla’s last three have produced 14, 4 and 7 total corners respectively, with them often conceding more as they’re pushed back. Atlético’s recent matches have swung from just 2 corners versus Barcelona, to 5 at Real Madrid, then a big 13 against Getafe, showing they can rack up flags when they sustain pressure. With Atlético likely to have more of the ball and Sevilla forced to defend deep, this corners prediction around nine fits a contest where the away side probe and Sevilla look to break selectively rather than constantly attack.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Sevilla
Shots in last 5 matches
Ath Madrid
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots total sits at 23.5, suggesting a game with a reasonable amount of action in both boxes but not an all-out shooting festival. Sevilla’s last three shot counts read 9, 13 and 8 attempts, while allowing 7, 9 and 13 – they’re not swarming opponents, but they do give up sustained pressure, especially away to stronger sides. Atlético, meanwhile, have taken 6, 13 and 16 shots in their last three and conceded 22, 17 and 7, numbers that align well with their xG profile of roughly 1.0 for and close to 1.9 against. The shots prediction therefore fits an Atlético side that should generate the bulk of the 23–24 efforts, with Sevilla relying on fewer but potentially dangerous situations in transition.

Final Prediction

Atlético Madrid’s superior league position, stronger underlying numbers in attack, and Sevilla’s defensive frailty make the visitors rightful favourites to edge this contest. Sevilla’s lack of clean sheets and low recent xG going forward underline the scale of their task. A key factor to watch will be how much territory Atlético can claim; if they pin Sevilla back and rack up corners and shots as the data suggests, their quality should eventually tell.

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