La Liga 2025-2026: Sevilla vs Sociedad Prediction - 4 May 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Sevilla

Home Team
37%
VS

Sociedad

Away Team
37%
Draw: 26%
Over 2.5: 45%
Under 2.5: 55%
Goal: 50%
No Goal: 50%
Expected Corners: 9.4
Expected Shots: 24.7
Expected Spread: +0.0

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Barcelona 33 28 1 4 87 30 57 85
2 Real Madrid 33 23 5 5 68 31 37 74
3 Villarreal 33 20 5 8 59 38 21 65
4 Ath Madrid 33 18 6 9 56 37 19 60
5 Betis 33 12 14 7 49 41 8 50
6 Getafe 33 13 5 15 28 34 -6 44
7 Celta 33 11 11 11 45 43 2 44
8 Sociedad 33 11 10 12 52 52 0 43
9 Osasuna 33 11 9 13 39 40 -1 42
10 Betis 33 12 5 16 36 48 -12 41
11 Vallecano 33 9 12 12 33 41 -8 39
12 Valencia 33 10 9 14 37 48 -11 39
13 Espanol 33 10 9 14 37 49 -12 39
14 Elche 33 9 11 13 44 50 -6 38
15 Girona 33 9 11 13 36 50 -14 38
16 Alaves 33 9 9 15 38 49 -11 36
17 Mallorca 33 9 8 16 41 51 -10 35
18 Sevilla 33 9 7 17 40 55 -15 34
19 Levante 33 8 9 16 37 50 -13 33
20 Oviedo 33 6 10 17 26 51 -25 28

Recent Trends

Sevilla L L W L L

  • Last Match: L vs Osasuna (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Levante (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Ath Madrid (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Oviedo (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Valencia (Goals: 0 - 2)

Sociedad D L D W L

  • Last Match: D vs Vallecano (Goals: 3 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Getafe (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Alaves (Goals: 3 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Levante (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Villarreal (Goals: 1 - 3)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Sevilla

xG (avg) 0.93
xGA (avg) 1.35
Clean Sheets 0

Sociedad

xG (avg) 1.24
xGA (avg) 2.79
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

Sevilla are narrowly tipped to edge this one at home, with a 37.0% chance of victory – the same as Sociedad’s win probability, but the model leans slightly Sevilla’s way. The draw sits at 26.0%, and the goal spread prediction is essentially even at 0.0, underlining how finely balanced this looks. In the table, Sociedad are 8th on 43 points, while Sevilla are down in 18th on 34, fighting to climb out of the relegation zone.

Match Analysis

Sevilla come into this under real pressure but with a flicker of life after a 2-1 home win over Atlético Madrid, sandwiched between two away defeats at Osasuna (1-2) and Levante (0-2). Those three games show a side that struggles on the road but can still raise their game at the Sánchez-Pizjuán. Over the last five matches, they’ve averaged just 1.0 goal scored and 1.2 conceded, with xG figures of 0.926 for and 1.354 against, and no clean sheets – a team often second-best on chances but staying in games. Sociedad’s recent form is chaotic rather than consistent: two wild 3-3 draws (Vallecano and Alavés) around a 0-1 home loss to Getafe. They’ve been more dangerous going forward than Sevilla, averaging 1.6 goals scored across their last five, but their defensive collapse is stark, conceding 2.6 per match with a hefty 2.786 expected goals against. That soft underbelly explains why, despite their higher league position and more open attack, this contest is rated almost level.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Sevilla
Goals in last 5 matches
Sociedad
Goals in last 5 matches
The model leans to an under 2.5 prediction, with only a 45.0% chance of the game going over 2.5 goals. Sevilla’s last three games have twice gone over (2-1 vs Atlético, 1-2 at Osasuna) and once under (0-2 at Levante), but their low averages of 1.0 scored and 1.2 conceded, plus sub-1.0 xG in attack, suggest a limited cutting edge. Sociedad’s matches have all cleared the line recently (3-3, 0-1, 3-3: two over, one under), yet their 1.238 xG for and Sevilla’s generally cautious output push this forecast towards under 2.5 overall.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Sevilla
Corners in last 5 matches
Sociedad
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction points to around 9.42 total corners, a moderate figure that fits both sides’ recent numbers. Sevilla’s last three have produced 8, 9 and 12 corners (they took 4, 6 and 6), while Sociedad’s games yielded 10, 9 and 14 (with Sociedad earning 4, 6 and 9). Both teams can build pressure in wide areas without being relentlessly direct, so the predicted corners tally reflects steady attacking rather than a siege.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Sevilla
Shots in last 5 matches
Sociedad
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots for this match is 24.66 in total, again suggesting a competitive but not frantic contest. Sevilla’s last three outings have seen combined shot counts of 23, 15 and 24, while Sociedad’s have reached 37, 18 and 24, with La Real often allowing opponents to shoot freely. Given Sevilla’s lower attacking xG and Sociedad’s high xGA, this shots prediction lines up with a game of shared chances rather than one-way traffic.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Sevilla wins by X goals. Negative = Sociedad wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Sevilla vs Sociedad with expected spread of +0.0
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Sevilla vs Sociedad
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected spread is 0.0, effectively calling this a toss-up despite Sevilla being the predicted result. Recently, Sevilla’s goal differences have been -1, -2 and +1, while Sociedad’s have been 0, -1 and 0 – neither side consistently outscoring opponents. With both win probabilities at 37.0% and modest attacking numbers for Sevilla against a leaky Sociedad defence, the goal spread prediction of level scores reflects the tight margins.

Final Prediction

Sevilla’s edge rests almost entirely on home advantage and the ability they showed in beating Atlético Madrid in front of their own crowd. Sociedad’s higher position and livelier attack are offset by their alarming defensive figures. The key factor to watch will be whether Sevilla’s more controlled, lower-xG style can exploit Sociedad’s generous back line without opening up into the kind of end-to-end battle that would suit the visitors.

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