La Liga 2025-2026: Sevilla vs Valencia Prediction - 21 Mar 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Sevilla

Home Team
30%
VS

Valencia

Away Team
46%
Draw: 24%
Over 2.5: 44%
Under 2.5: 56%
Goal: 51%
No Goal: 49%
Expected Corners: 9.3
Expected Shots: 21.4

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Barcelona 28 23 1 4 77 28 49 70
2 Real Madrid 28 21 3 4 60 24 36 66
3 Ath Madrid 28 17 6 5 47 25 22 57
4 Villarreal 28 17 4 7 51 33 18 55
5 Betis 28 11 11 6 43 35 8 44
6 Celta 28 10 11 7 38 31 7 41
7 Sociedad 28 10 8 10 43 42 1 38
8 Espanol 28 10 7 11 35 42 -7 37
9 Getafe 28 10 5 13 23 30 -7 35
10 Betis 28 10 5 13 30 40 -10 35
11 Osasuna 28 9 7 12 33 35 -2 34
12 Girona 28 8 10 10 31 43 -12 34
13 Vallecano 28 7 11 10 28 34 -6 32
14 Valencia 28 8 8 12 30 42 -12 32
15 Sevilla 28 8 7 13 37 47 -10 31
16 Mallorca 28 7 7 14 33 45 -12 28
17 Alaves 28 7 7 14 26 38 -12 28
18 Elche 28 5 11 12 36 45 -9 26
19 Levante 28 5 8 15 30 46 -16 23
20 Oviedo 28 4 9 15 18 44 -26 21

Recent Trends

Sevilla L D D W D

  • Last Match: L vs Barcelona (Goals: 2 - 5)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Vallecano (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Betis (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Getafe (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Alaves (Goals: 1 - 1)

Valencia L W W L W

  • Last Match: L vs Oviedo (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Alaves (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Osasuna (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Villarreal (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Levante (Goals: 2 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Sevilla

xG (avg) 0.83
xGA (avg) 1.64
Clean Sheets 1

Valencia

xG (avg) 1.16
xGA (avg) 1.69
Clean Sheets 2

Key Prediction Insights

Valencia are slight favourites to take all three points, with a 46.0% chance of an away win compared to Sevilla’s 30.0% probability at home and a 24.0% chance of a draw. The model leans towards a tight contest with an under 2.5 goals prediction (44.0% chance of over, so the edge is on the “under”), despite both sides being close in the table, with Valencia 14th on 32 points and Sevilla 15th on 31.

Match Analysis

Sevilla come into this one on a three-game winless run: a heavy 5-2 defeat away to leaders Barcelona, followed by a 1-1 draw at home to Vallecano and a 2-2 derby draw at Betis. They are still fragile at the back – 47 goals conceded this season, the worst record in the top 15 – and their recent advanced metrics underline the concern: they’ve allowed an average xG against of 1.638 over the last five matches, while creating only 0.83 xG going forward. Even though they’ve found the net in all of their last three, the underlying numbers suggest they are often out-created. Valencia arrive in Seville with more positive momentum: back-to-back home wins over Alaves (3-2) and Osasuna (1-0) were followed by a disappointing 1-0 defeat at struggling Oviedo. Those two wins, however, have nudged them ahead of Sevilla in the standings and their recent xG profile is slightly healthier in attack, averaging 1.156 xG scored per game over the last five. Defensively, they are not watertight either, conceding 1.69 xG on average, but two clean sheets in that same five-game stretch suggest they can tighten up when needed.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Sevilla
Goals in last 5 matches
Valencia
Goals in last 5 matches
The model points to an under 2.5 outcome as the more likely scenario, with the over 2.5 prediction only given a 44.0% chance. Sevilla’s last three matches have been mixed for goal totals: 7 goals at Barcelona (over), 2 against Vallecano (under), and 4 at Betis (over), so 2 of 3 went over. Valencia’s recent games have been more cagey, with 1-0 vs Osasuna (under), 3-2 vs Alaves (over) and 1-0 at Oviedo (under), again 2 of 3 under. With both teams averaging just 1.0 goal scored and 1.0 conceded in their last five, and xG figures that are modest rather than explosive, a low-scoring, narrow result fits the under 2.5 narrative.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Sevilla
Corners in last 5 matches
Valencia
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction points to around 9.3 total corners, suggesting a moderately open game but not an end-to-end siege. Sevilla’s last three matches produced corner totals of 7 (4-3 vs Barcelona), 8 (6-2 vs Vallecano) and 7 (3-4 vs Betis), showing they can generate pressure, particularly at home. Valencia have been even more productive from wide areas, with 11 corners at Oviedo (7-4), a huge 12 against Alaves (10-2) and 9 versus Osasuna (5-4), which supports the idea of predicted corners hovering right around that 9–10 mark as both sides look to work the flanks.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Sevilla
Shots in last 5 matches
Valencia
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots total is 21.43, indicating a game with a decent number of attempts but not a shooting gallery. Sevilla’s last three outings saw them take 8 shots at Barcelona, 11 against Vallecano and 14 at Betis, while facing 13, 9 and 9 respectively – consistently around that low-20s combined mark. Valencia’s shot volumes have been solid too, recording 13 attempts at Oviedo, 19 against Alaves and 14 versus Osasuna; when combined with their xG of 1.156 per game, this supports a shots prediction in the low 20s, with both teams able to create but often from lower-quality positions.

Final Prediction

Valencia’s slight edge in form, cleaner recent defensive record and higher win probability tilt this match in their favour, even away from home. Sevilla’s porous defence and weaker xG balance make them vulnerable if Valencia manage the game with discipline. The key factor to watch will be how often Valencia can turn their wing play and corner count into clear chances against a Sevilla back line that has struggled all season.

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