La Liga 2025-2026: Sevilla vs Vallecano Prediction - 8 Mar 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Sevilla

Home Team
42%
VS

Vallecano

Away Team
31%
Draw: 27%
Over 2.5: 49%
Under 2.5: 51%
Goal: 55%
No Goal: 45%
Expected Corners: 9.8
Expected Shots: 23.3

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Barcelona 26 21 1 4 71 26 45 64
2 Real Madrid 26 19 3 4 54 22 32 60
3 Ath Madrid 26 15 6 5 43 23 20 51
4 Villarreal 26 16 3 7 48 31 17 51
5 Betis 26 11 10 5 42 32 10 43
6 Celta 26 10 10 6 36 28 8 40
7 Espanol 26 10 6 10 33 39 -6 36
8 Sociedad 26 9 8 9 38 38 0 35
9 Betis 26 10 5 11 30 36 -6 35
10 Osasuna 26 9 6 11 30 30 0 33
11 Getafe 26 9 5 12 21 29 -8 32
12 Vallecano 26 7 9 10 26 32 -6 30
13 Sevilla 26 8 6 12 34 41 -7 30
14 Girona 26 7 9 10 27 42 -15 30
15 Valencia 26 7 8 11 27 39 -12 29
16 Alaves 26 7 6 13 23 34 -11 27
17 Elche 26 5 11 10 34 39 -5 26
18 Mallorca 26 6 6 14 29 42 -13 24
19 Levante 26 5 6 15 28 44 -16 21
20 Oviedo 26 3 8 15 16 43 -27 17

Recent Trends

Sevilla D W D D L

  • Last Match: D vs Betis (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Getafe (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Alaves (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Girona (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Mallorca (Goals: 1 - 4)

Vallecano W D D W L

  • Last Match: W vs Oviedo (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Ath Bilbao (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Betis (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Ath Madrid (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Real Madrid (Goals: 1 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Sevilla

Average Expected Goals (xG): 0.93
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.93
# Clean Sheets: 1

Vallecano

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.03
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 2.32
# Clean Sheets: 2

Key Prediction Insights

Sevilla are slight favourites at home with a 42.0% chance of victory, edging a Vallecano side given a 31.0% probability of an away win, with the draw at 27.0%. The model leans towards a Sevilla home win and an under 2.5 goals prediction, despite both teams sitting side by side in mid‑table – Vallecano 12th and Sevilla 13th, both on 30 points. With the standings so tight and relegation still lurking below, this is a classic six‑pointer in the middle of the pack.

Match Analysis

Sevilla come into this on a three‑match unbeaten run (one win, two draws), but it has been anything but comfortable. They drew 2-2 at Betis in a lively derby, edged Getafe 1-0 away, then laboured to a 1-1 home draw with Alaves where they were out‑shot 12-4 and didn’t win a single corner. The underlying numbers underline their fragility: across the last five games they’ve scored just 0.8 goals per match while conceding 1.4, with an average xG for of 0.934 compared to 1.926 against. They’re getting results lately, but the balance of chances is still going against them. Vallecano’s recent form is steadier than their season-long defensive record might suggest. They smashed Oviedo 3-0 at home with 19 shots and a 12-2 corner count, then backed it up with solid draws: 1-1 at home to Athletic Bilbao and 1-1 away to Betis. Their last five games paint a stranger picture: averaging just 0.4 goals scored but conceding 2.2, with xG of 1.026 for and 2.318 against. That hints at a side creating reasonable opportunities but punished heavily at the other end. Two clean sheets in that spell show they’re capable of shutting teams down, but when they collapse, they concede in bunches.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Sevilla
Goals in last 5 matches
Vallecano
Goals in last 5 matches
The model leans slightly to under 2.5 with a 51.0% implied probability (given 49.0% for over 2.5), and that matches the recent trend. Two of Sevilla’s last three games were under 2.5 goals (1-0 vs Getafe, 1-1 vs Alaves) with only the 2-2 derby at Betis going over. Vallecano have also seen two of their last three finish under 2.5 (1-1 vs Athletic Bilbao, 1-1 vs Betis), with only the 3-0 win over Oviedo clearing the line. Combined averages of 0.8 goals scored and 1.4 conceded for Sevilla, and 0.4 scored and 2.2 conceded for Vallecano, alongside relatively modest xG at both ends, support the under 2.5 and make the over 2.5 prediction less appealing.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Sevilla
Corners in last 5 matches
Vallecano
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction is for around 9.8 total corners, pointing to a mid‑range count rather than an end‑to‑end siege. Sevilla’s last three matches produced corner totals of 7, 4 and 3, showing a side that neither generates nor concedes huge numbers, especially at home where they managed 0-3 against Alaves. Vallecano’s games have been more energetic in wide areas: 14 corners vs Oviedo, then 9 vs Athletic Bilbao and 8 vs Betis, reflecting a team happy to attack through the flanks. Putting these together, predicted corners just under double digits feels realistic – Vallecano’s more aggressive wing play likely inflating the tally above what Sevilla alone would produce.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Sevilla
Shots in last 5 matches
Vallecano
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots for this match sit at 23.34, which fits neatly with what both sides have been producing. Sevilla’s last three outings saw combined shot counts of 23 (14-9 vs Betis), 12 (6-6 vs Getafe) and 16 (4-12 vs Alaves), suggesting big variation depending on game state and opponent. Vallecano’s matches have been consistently lively in front of goal: 27 shots vs Oviedo, 23 vs Athletic Bilbao and 26 vs Betis. With both teams’ xG figures around 1.0 for and close to or above 2.0 against in recent weeks, a shots prediction in the low‑to‑mid 20s mirrors the idea of a game with decent chance creation but not necessarily clinical finishing.

Final Prediction

Sevilla’s slight edge comes from home advantage and a small upturn in results, even if the underlying metrics still cast doubt on their control of games. Vallecano’s inconsistency at the back and their tendency to concede good chances away from home tip the balance towards a narrow home win. The key factor to watch will be how well Sevilla cope with Vallecano’s wing play and volume of crosses – if they can limit service into the box, their greater nous at home should just about see them through.

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