La Liga 2025-2026: Sociedad vs Alaves Prediction - 11 Apr 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Sociedad

Home Team
56%
VS

Alaves

Away Team
22%
Draw: 22%
Over 2.5: 64%
Under 2.5: 36%
Goal: 62%
No Goal: 38%
Expected Corners: 9.6
Expected Shots: 26.4

Also available in Claude. Query these predictions in plain language — our native connector lets Claude call our models on demand, no code.

Set it up

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Barcelona 30 25 1 4 80 29 51 76
2 Real Madrid 30 22 3 5 64 28 36 69
3 Villarreal 30 18 4 8 54 35 19 58
4 Ath Madrid 30 17 6 7 50 30 20 57
5 Betis 30 11 12 7 44 37 7 45
6 Celta 30 11 11 8 44 37 7 44
7 Sociedad 30 11 8 11 46 45 1 41
8 Getafe 30 12 5 13 27 31 -4 41
9 Osasuna 30 10 8 12 36 37 -1 38
10 Espanol 30 10 8 12 36 44 -8 38
11 Betis 30 11 5 14 32 43 -11 38
12 Girona 30 9 10 11 32 44 -12 37
13 Vallecano 30 8 11 11 29 35 -6 35
14 Valencia 30 9 8 13 34 45 -11 35
15 Alaves 30 8 8 14 32 43 -11 32
16 Mallorca 30 8 7 15 36 48 -12 31
17 Sevilla 30 8 7 15 37 50 -13 31
18 Elche 30 6 11 13 38 47 -9 29
19 Levante 30 6 8 16 34 50 -16 26
20 Oviedo 30 5 9 16 21 48 -27 24

Recent Trends

Sociedad W L W L W

  • Last Match: W vs Levante (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Villarreal (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Osasuna (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Ath Madrid (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Mallorca (Goals: 1 - 0)

Alaves D W D L L

  • Last Match: D vs Osasuna (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Celta (Goals: 4 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Villarreal (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Valencia (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Levante (Goals: 0 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Sociedad

xG (avg) 2.51
xGA (avg) 1.08
Clean Sheets 2

Alaves

xG (avg) 1.46
xGA (avg) 1.71
Clean Sheets 0

Key Prediction Insights

Sociedad are favoured to take all three points at home, with a 56.0% probability of victory against Alaves’ 22.0% and an equal 22.0% chance of a draw. Sitting 7th on 41 points, Sociedad are pushing to close the gap on the European places, while 15th‑placed Alaves (32 points) are still looking over their shoulder at the relegation scrap. The model also leans strongly towards an open game, with an over 2.5 goals prediction at 64.0% and both teams expected to score.

Match Analysis

Sociedad come into this derby in quietly impressive form. They’ve won two of their last three – 2-0 at home to Levante and 3-1 at home to Osasuna – with only a 3-1 defeat away to high-flying Villarreal interrupting that run. At home they’ve looked assertive: 18 shots and 11 corners against Levante underline their ability to pin teams back in San Sebastián. Over the last five games they’re averaging 2.8 goals scored and 1.2 conceded, backed by strong underlying numbers of 2.512 expected goals (xG) for and 1.082 xG against per match, plus two clean sheets in that spell. Alaves, meanwhile, are on a three-game unbeaten streak that has eased some relegation worries: a 2-2 draw with Osasuna, an eye-catching 4-3 away win at Celta, and a solid 1-1 home draw with Villarreal. They’ve found a bit of attacking punch with 1.8 goals scored on average over their last five, but they’re also conceding 2.0 per game and haven’t kept a single clean sheet in that period. Their xG profile – 1.458 for and 1.71 against – suggests they tend to be second best in chance quality, something that could hurt them against a Sociedad side that regularly creates more and better openings.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Sociedad
Goals in last 5 matches
Alaves
Goals in last 5 matches
With a 64.0% probability on over 2.5, the over 2.5 prediction fits the recent patterns of both teams. All three of Sociedad’s last matches have hit at least three goals (2-0, 1-3, 3-1), while all three of Alaves’ have also gone over – 2-2, 4-3 and 1-1 being the only exception, meaning two of their last three cleared the line. Combined averages of 2.8 scored and 1.2 conceded for Sociedad, and 1.8 scored and 2.0 conceded for Alaves, plus xG figures on both sides above 1.4, all point towards another match more likely to be over 2.5 than under 2.5.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Sociedad
Corners in last 5 matches
Alaves
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The model’s corners prediction sits at 9.56 total, which fits what we’ve seen recently from these two. Sociedad’s last three have produced 16, 9 and 8 corners respectively, with La Real themselves winning 11, 5 and 3 – evidence of a side that attacks with width at home but can be forced back away. Alaves’ recent games have yielded 8, 5 and 7 corners in total, with them swinging between heavy dominance on set plays (7-1 vs Osasuna) and more reactive displays. With Sociedad likely to carry the territorial initiative, the predicted corners figure just under double digits feels realistic.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Sociedad
Shots in last 5 matches
Alaves
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
Expected shots for this game is 26.43 in total, which again aligns with current trends. Sociedad’s last three outings have seen 26, 32 and 27 total shots, with La Real usually on the front foot at home (18 attempts against Levante, 14 versus Osasuna). Alaves’ matches have produced 26, 26 and 18 shots, reflecting a team willing to trade chances even if they don’t always control games. Given Sociedad’s strong xG (2.512) and Alaves’ defensive record, a shots prediction in the mid‑20s ties in well with the idea of an open, chance‑filled contest.

Final Prediction

Sociedad’s edge comes from their superior recent form, stronger xG profile and a clear home advantage, all of which support them as deserved favourites. Alaves’ attacking revival gives them a puncher’s chance, but their lack of clean sheets is a major concern. The key factor to watch will be whether Alaves can withstand Sociedad’s sustained pressure in the final third, especially in the wide areas that so often generate both shots and corners for the home side.

Get Daily Football Predictions

Enjoyed this analysis? Subscribe to our Telegram channel and receive daily AI-driven football predictions directly on your phone.

Join Our Telegram Channel