La Liga 2025-2026: Sociedad vs Elche Prediction - 7 Feb 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5

Sociedad

Home Team
82%
VS

Elche

Away Team
8%
Draw: 10%
Over 2.5: 63%
Under 2.5: 37%
Goal: 59%
No Goal: 41%

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Barcelona 22 18 1 3 60 23 37 55
2 Real Madrid 22 17 3 2 47 18 29 54
3 Ath Madrid 22 13 6 3 38 17 21 45
4 Villarreal 21 13 3 5 39 23 16 42
5 Betis 22 9 8 5 36 28 8 35
6 Espanol 22 10 4 8 26 27 -1 34
7 Celta 22 8 9 5 29 23 6 33
8 Sociedad 22 7 7 8 30 30 0 28
9 Osasuna 22 7 5 10 26 27 -1 26
10 Alaves 22 7 4 11 20 27 -7 25
11 Betis 22 7 4 11 21 31 -10 25
12 Girona 22 6 7 9 21 36 -15 25
13 Elche 22 5 9 8 30 32 -2 24
14 Mallorca 22 6 6 10 28 34 -6 24
15 Sevilla 22 7 3 12 29 37 -8 24
16 Valencia 22 5 8 9 23 35 -12 23
17 Getafe 22 6 5 11 16 27 -11 23
18 Vallecano 22 5 7 10 18 30 -12 22
19 Levante 21 4 6 11 24 34 -10 18
20 Oviedo 22 3 7 12 12 34 -22 16

Recent Trends

Sociedad D W W W D

  • Last Match: D vs Ath Bilbao (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Celta (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Barcelona (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Getafe (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Ath Madrid (Goals: 1 - 1)

Elche L L D D L

  • Last Match: L vs Barcelona (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Levante (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Sevilla (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Valencia (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Villarreal (Goals: 1 - 3)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Sociedad

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.56
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.94
# Clean Sheets: 0

Elche

Average Expected Goals (xG): 0.44
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 2.40
# Clean Sheets: 0

Key Prediction Insights

Sociedad are clear favourites at home with an 82.0% win probability against Elche’s 8.0%, a reflection of their higher league position (8th with 28 points) compared to Elche in 13th on 24 points. The game is projected to be open, with a 63.0% chance of over 2.5 goals and a predicted “over” outcome. There is also a 59.0% probability that both sides get on the scoresheet.

Match Analysis

Sociedad come in on a strong run: two impressive home wins over Celta (3–1) and Barcelona (2–1), followed by a solid away draw in the Basque derby at Athletic Bilbao (1–1). They are scoring freely, averaging 1.8 goals in their last five matches, but their defending has been less secure, conceding 1.6 on average and failing to keep a clean sheet in that spell. Interestingly, their expected goals conceded (1.944) is higher than goals actually conceded, hinting that they’ve allowed chances but gotten away with some. Elche, by contrast, are wobbling. They’ve taken just one point from their last three: a home draw with Sevilla (2–2) sandwiched between defeats to Levante (3–2 away) and Barcelona (3–1 at home). Defensively they’ve been porous, shipping 2.2 goals per game over their last five, with no clean sheets and a very high 2.402 expected goals conceded. In attack, they are averaging only 1.0 goal and an extremely low 0.436 expected goals, suggesting they struggle to create clear chances.

Final Prediction

Sociedad’s stronger recent form, more reliable attacking output, and home advantage justify their heavy 82.0% win probability. Elche’s defensive leaks and lack of chance creation make an upset unlikely. A key factor to watch will be how often Sociedad can turn their superior chance volume into goals against an Elche back line that has been under pressure for weeks.

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