La Liga 2025-2026: Sociedad vs Getafe Prediction - 22 Apr 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Sociedad

Home Team
64%
VS

Getafe

Away Team
18%
Draw: 19%
Over 2.5: 44%
Under 2.5: 56%
Goal: 58%
No Goal: 42%
Expected Corners: 9.4
Expected Shots: 24.1

Also available in Claude. Query these predictions in plain language — our native connector lets Claude call our models on demand, no code.

Set it up

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Barcelona 31 26 1 4 84 30 54 79
2 Real Madrid 31 22 4 5 65 29 36 70
3 Villarreal 31 19 4 8 56 36 20 61
4 Ath Madrid 31 17 6 8 51 32 19 57
5 Betis 31 11 13 7 45 38 7 46
6 Celta 31 11 11 9 44 40 4 44
7 Sociedad 31 11 9 11 49 48 1 42
8 Getafe 31 12 5 14 27 32 -5 41
9 Osasuna 31 10 9 12 37 38 -1 39
10 Espanol 31 10 8 13 37 48 -11 38
11 Betis 31 11 5 15 33 45 -12 38
12 Girona 31 9 11 11 33 45 -12 38
13 Vallecano 31 8 11 12 29 38 -9 35
14 Valencia 31 9 8 14 34 46 -12 35
15 Mallorca 31 9 7 15 39 48 -9 34
16 Sevilla 31 9 7 15 39 51 -12 34
17 Alaves 31 8 9 14 35 46 -11 33
18 Elche 31 7 11 13 39 47 -8 32
19 Levante 31 7 8 16 35 50 -15 29
20 Oviedo 31 6 9 16 24 48 -24 27

Recent Trends

Sociedad D W L W L

  • Last Match: D vs Alaves (Goals: 3 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Levante (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Villarreal (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Osasuna (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Ath Madrid (Goals: 2 - 3)

Getafe L W W L W

  • Last Match: L vs Levante (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Ath Bilbao (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Espanol (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Ath Madrid (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Betis (Goals: 2 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Sociedad

xG (avg) 2.34
xGA (avg) 1.00
Clean Sheets 1

Getafe

xG (avg) 1.24
xGA (avg) 2.40
Clean Sheets 2

Key Prediction Insights

Sociedad are favoured to take all three points at home, with a 64.0% probability of victory against Getafe’s 18.0%, in a direct duel between 7th and 8th in La Liga. The model leans towards a tight, low-scoring game, with an under 2.5 goals prediction at 56.0% implied probability and a slight edge for both teams to score at 58.0%. With only one point between them in the table, this feels like a mini play-off for a potential late push towards the European places.

Match Analysis

Sociedad come into this on the back of a mixed but lively run: a 3-3 thriller at home to Alavés, a controlled 2-0 win over Levante, and a 1-3 loss away to third-placed Villarreal. At home they’ve looked assertive, racking up 9 and 11 corners in those two recent San Sebastián fixtures and scoring five times in the process. Their recent averages are impressive in attack: 2.8 goals scored per game over the last five, backed up by 2.342 expected goals, suggesting their forward play is consistently creating chances rather than relying on one-off moments. Getafe’s recent form is more pragmatic: a 1-0 defeat at Levante, sandwiched between a 2-0 home win over Athletic Bilbao and a 2-1 away win at Espanyol. They’ve taken six points from their last three matches by being clinical, despite often playing second fiddle territorially – they were outshot 22-5 at Levante and 15-10 at Espanyol. The advanced numbers underline that tightrope: just 1.0 goals conceded per game in the last five but a hefty 2.402 expected goals against, hinting that opponents have been creating enough to trouble them. Away to an attack as productive as Sociedad’s, that defensive overperformance will be tested.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Sociedad
Goals in last 5 matches
Getafe
Goals in last 5 matches
The model goes for under 2.5 with a 56.0% edge over the 44.0% chance of over 2.5 goals, making a low-scoring contest the primary call. Sociedad’s last three matches have produced totals of 6, 2 and 4 goals, meaning two of the three went over 2.5, fuelled by their 2.8 scored and 1.6 conceded per game and strong xG numbers. Getafe’s recent games have finished 1, 2 and 3 goals, with just one over 2.5, and their combination of tight scorelines and low output (1.0 scored, 0.6 conceded) supports the under 2.5 prediction despite some warning signs in their xG against.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Sociedad
Corners in last 5 matches
Getafe
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction points to around 9.36 total corners, which fits the recent patterns of these two. Sociedad’s last three have seen corner counts of 14, 16 and 9 (for both teams combined), showing how their front-foot home approach and volume of shots regularly generate set pieces. Getafe’s matches have been more modest – 10, 7 and 21 total corners – but their tendency to absorb pressure, especially away from home, should allow Sociedad to rack up enough attacking territory to push the total close to the predicted corners figure.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Sociedad
Shots in last 5 matches
Getafe
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots total is 24.12, in line with what both sides have been involved in recently. Sociedad’s last three outings featured 24, 26 and 32 total shots, reflecting an open style where they both create and concede attempts, matching their high xG for and relatively modest xG against. Getafe’s games have seen 27, 15 and 25 total shots; even when they sit deep, opponents manage to fire away, which supports a shots prediction in the low-to-mid 20s and a game where the hosts should carry the greater attacking weight.

Final Prediction

Sociedad’s attacking momentum, stronger chance creation and home form give them the edge in what looks like a cagey but controlled home win. Getafe’s ability to stay in games despite conceding chances is their main card, but the underlying numbers suggest that can only hold for so long. The key factor to watch will be whether Getafe’s defence can once again defy the xG and withstand the sustained pressure Sociedad are expected to generate.

Get Daily Football Predictions

Enjoyed this analysis? Subscribe to our Telegram channel and receive daily AI-driven football predictions directly on your phone.

Join Our Telegram Channel