La Liga 2025-2026: Sociedad vs Osasuna Prediction - 15 Mar 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Sociedad

Home Team
56%
VS

Osasuna

Away Team
22%
Draw: 23%
Over 2.5: 52%
Under 2.5: 48%
Goal: 56%
No Goal: 44%
Expected Corners: 9.7
Expected Shots: 24.9

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Barcelona 27 22 1 4 72 26 46 67
2 Real Madrid 27 20 3 4 56 23 33 63
3 Ath Madrid 27 16 6 5 46 25 21 54
4 Villarreal 27 17 3 7 50 32 18 54
5 Betis 27 11 10 6 42 34 8 43
6 Celta 27 10 10 7 37 30 7 40
7 Espanol 27 10 7 10 34 40 -6 37
8 Sociedad 27 9 8 10 40 41 -1 35
9 Getafe 27 10 5 12 23 29 -6 35
10 Betis 27 10 5 12 30 37 -7 35
11 Osasuna 27 9 7 11 32 32 0 34
12 Valencia 27 8 8 11 30 41 -11 32
13 Vallecano 27 7 10 10 27 33 -6 31
14 Sevilla 27 8 7 12 35 42 -7 31
15 Girona 27 7 10 10 28 43 -15 31
16 Alaves 27 7 6 14 25 37 -12 27
17 Elche 27 5 11 11 35 41 -6 26
18 Mallorca 27 6 7 14 31 44 -13 25
19 Levante 27 5 7 15 29 45 -16 22
20 Oviedo 27 3 9 15 17 44 -27 18

Recent Trends

Sociedad L W D L W

  • Last Match: L vs Ath Madrid (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Mallorca (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Oviedo (Goals: 3 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Real Madrid (Goals: 1 - 4)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Elche (Goals: 3 - 1)

Osasuna D L W D W

  • Last Match: D vs Mallorca (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Valencia (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Real Madrid (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Elche (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Celta (Goals: 2 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Sociedad

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.99
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.95
# Clean Sheets: 1

Osasuna

Average Expected Goals (xG): 0.93
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.47
# Clean Sheets: 1

Key Prediction Insights

Sociedad are favoured to take all three points, with a 56.0% probability of a home win against an Osasuna side given a 22.0% chance, while the draw sits at 23.0%. With Sociedad currently 8th on 35 points and Osasuna right behind them in 11th on 34, this is a direct battle in the tight mid-table pack. The model leans towards an open game, with an over 2.5 prediction at 52.0% and both teams expected to score.

Match Analysis

Sociedad come in from a mixed run but with plenty of attacking punch: a 3-3 thriller at home to Oviedo, a solid 1-0 away win at Mallorca, and a 3-2 defeat at Atlético Madrid. Those three matches produced 6, 1 and 5 total goals respectively, underlining how volatile but dangerous their front line can be. Across the last five games they’re averaging 2.4 goals scored and 1.4 conceded, backed up by strong attacking numbers at nearly 2.0 expected goals (xG) created per match and 1.952 xG allowed. Osasuna’s recent form has been tighter and more controlled. They drew 2-2 at home to Mallorca, lost 1-0 away to Valencia, and impressed with a 2-1 home win over Real Madrid – three competitive performances, all settled by fine margins. Their attack is more modest at 1.0 goal per game over the last five, with 0.934 xG created on average, but they’ve been relatively solid at the back, conceding just 0.8 per match despite allowing 1.466 xG. That suggests a team comfortable absorbing pressure, something they will almost certainly try to do in San Sebastián.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Sociedad
Goals in last 5 matches
Osasuna
Goals in last 5 matches
The model points towards goals, with an over 2.5 prediction at 52.0%, edging out the under 2.5 option. Two of Sociedad’s last three league games went over 2.5 goals (3-3 vs Oviedo, 3-2 vs Atlético), with only the 1-0 win at Mallorca landing under. Osasuna have been slightly more balanced – 2-2 vs Mallorca and 2-1 vs Real Madrid both over 2.5, the 1-0 defeat in Valencia under – but their recent totals also lean towards higher-scoring contests. Given Sociedad’s 2.4 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per game, combined with both sides’ xG profiles, this match is set up for chances at both ends rather than a cagey stalemate.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Sociedad
Corners in last 5 matches
Osasuna
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction sits at 9.67 total, pointing to a game with a healthy amount of attacking play but not an endless stream of set pieces. Sociedad’s last three have produced corner counts of 1-8 at Atlético, 7-3 at Mallorca and 7-6 against Oviedo, showing that when they’re on the front foot they rack up corners high up the pitch. Osasuna, meanwhile, saw 8-0 vs Mallorca, 4-5 at Valencia and 3-7 against Real Madrid – numbers that reflect a side comfortable alternating between pressing and soaking pressure. With both teams willing to attack wide areas, a total close to the predicted corners figure looks realistic.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Sociedad
Shots in last 5 matches
Osasuna
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots total is 24.92, suggesting a match with regular attempts on goal rather than a slow, chess-like encounter. Sociedad’s last three outings saw shot counts of 7-24 vs Atlético, 12-6 at Mallorca and 15-14 vs Oviedo, repeatedly hitting or exceeding that combined range when opponents are factored in. Osasuna’s recent games brought 22-8 vs Mallorca, 8-14 at Valencia and 13-15 against Real Madrid, again pointing towards matches with plenty of efforts. Those volumes marry well with the xG numbers for both sides and support a shots prediction firmly in the mid‑20s.

Final Prediction

Sociedad’s attacking momentum, higher scoring average and home advantage give them a slight but clear edge over an Osasuna team that relies more on organisation than firepower. Osasuna’s defensive resilience keeps them in almost every game, but the balance of chances and xG tilts towards the hosts. The key factor to watch will be whether Osasuna’s back line can contain Sociedad’s multi-pronged attack, or whether sustained pressure finally cracks them over 90 minutes.

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