La Liga 2025-2026: Sociedad vs Valencia Prediction - 17 May 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Sociedad

Home Team
49%
VS

Valencia

Away Team
26%
Draw: 24%
Over 2.5: 50%
Under 2.5: 50%
Goal: 57%
No Goal: 43%
Expected Corners: 9.3
Expected Shots: 24.6
Expected Spread: +0.4

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Barcelona 36 30 1 5 91 32 59 91
2 Real Madrid 36 25 5 6 72 33 39 80
3 Villarreal 36 21 6 9 67 43 24 69
4 Ath Madrid 36 20 6 10 60 39 21 66
5 Betis 36 14 15 7 56 44 12 57
6 Celta 36 13 11 12 51 47 4 50
7 Getafe 36 14 6 16 31 37 -6 48
8 Sociedad 36 11 12 13 55 56 -1 45
9 Betis 36 13 5 18 40 53 -13 44
10 Vallecano 36 10 14 12 37 43 -6 44
11 Valencia 36 11 10 15 39 51 -12 43
12 Sevilla 36 12 7 17 46 58 -12 43
13 Osasuna 36 11 9 16 43 47 -4 42
14 Espanol 36 11 9 16 40 53 -13 42
15 Girona 36 9 13 14 38 53 -15 40
16 Alaves 36 10 10 16 42 54 -12 40
17 Elche 36 9 12 15 47 56 -9 39
18 Mallorca 36 10 9 17 44 55 -11 39
19 Levante 36 10 9 17 44 59 -15 39
20 Oviedo 36 6 11 19 26 56 -30 29

Recent Trends

Sociedad D D L D L

  • Last Match: D vs Girona (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Betis (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Sevilla (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Vallecano (Goals: 3 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Getafe (Goals: 0 - 1)

Valencia D W L W D

  • Last Match: D vs Vallecano (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Ath Bilbao (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Ath Madrid (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Girona (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Mallorca (Goals: 1 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Sociedad

xG (avg) 2.35
xGA (avg) 0.83
Clean Sheets 0

Valencia

xG (avg) 1.57
xGA (avg) 1.32
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

Sociedad are slight favourites at home, with a 49.0% chance of victory against Valencia’s 26.0%, and a 24.0% probability of a draw. The model leans towards a home win and an over 2.5 prediction on goals. In the table, Sociedad sit 8th on 45 points while Valencia are 11th on 43, adding extra weight to this mid-table but still high‑stakes clash.

Match Analysis

Sociedad come into this one on a three‑match winless run (two draws and a defeat), but the performances have been more nuanced than the results. They drew 1-1 away at Girona despite being heavily outshot (6-29), then shared a 2-2 thriller at home with Betis in a balanced contest (14-14 shots), before a narrow 0-1 loss at Sevilla where they again struggled to limit attempts (6-19). The Basque side have still been finding the net regularly: across their last five games they average 2.0 goals scored, backed by an impressive 2.348 expected goals per match, suggesting consistent attacking threat even when the points haven’t followed. Valencia’s recent form has been steadier, if less explosive. They edged a crucial 1-0 victory away at Athletic Bilbao, drew 1-1 at home to Vallecano, and lost 0-2 at home to Atlético Madrid. Those three games underline a cautious, defence-first pattern: only two goals scored, but just three conceded, including one clean sheet in their last five. Their underlying numbers – 0.8 goals scored and 0.6 conceded on average over the last five, with xG of 1.572 for and 1.316 against – show a side that creates enough to be dangerous but prefers controlled, tight matches.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Sociedad
Goals in last 5 matches
Valencia
Goals in last 5 matches
The model leans slightly towards an over 2.5 prediction with a 50.0% probability, expecting this to be more open than some of Valencia’s recent outings. Two of Sociedad’s last three games have gone over 2.5 goals (2-2 vs Betis, 1-1 vs Girona, 0-1 vs Sevilla), while all three of Valencia’s have stayed under 2.5. Sociedad’s mix of 2.0 goals scored and 1.4 conceded on average, supported by strong attacking xG, tilts the balance towards a match that could open up if the hosts impose their rhythm.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Sociedad
Corners in last 5 matches
Valencia
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction points to around 9.35 total corners, in line with a lively but not frantic contest. Sociedad’s last three have produced 9, 7 and 6 total corners, while Valencia’s have yielded 6, 18 and 8, showing they can be involved in both low and high corner counts depending on the opponent. With Sociedad likely to push at home and Valencia comfortable defending deep and breaking, the predicted corners figure fits a game where wide play and blocked efforts create a steady, mid-range number of set-pieces.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Sociedad
Shots in last 5 matches
Valencia
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots total is 24.65, consistent with a match where both teams create but without becoming end-to-end chaos. Sociedad’s recent games have seen them both limit and concede a lot of shots (6, 14, 6 for; 29, 14, 19 against), while Valencia have registered 12, 7 and 12 attempts, conceding 6, 14 and 20. That balance matches the shots prediction and aligns with the xG profiles: Sociedad’s higher attacking xG and Valencia’s solid but not impenetrable defence point to a steady stream of chances for both.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Sociedad wins by X goals. Negative = Valencia wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Sociedad vs Valencia with expected spread of +0.4
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Sociedad vs Valencia
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The goal spread prediction has an expected spread of +0.37 in favour of Sociedad, meaning the hosts are projected to edge it by roughly a single goal. Across their last three games, Sociedad’s goal difference is -1 (3 scored, 4 conceded), while Valencia’s is -1 as well (2 scored, 3 conceded), showing neither side is blowing opponents away. The slight advantage in expected spread reflects Sociedad’s stronger attacking numbers and home advantage, in line with their higher win probability.

Final Prediction

Sociedad’s edge comes from their greater attacking punch, backed by higher recent xG and a willingness to play on the front foot at home, even if that leaves spaces at the back. Valencia’s compact shape and recent defensive solidity mean this won’t be straightforward, but over 90 minutes the home side’s creativity gives them the narrow advantage. The key factor to watch will be whether Valencia can keep Sociedad’s attack quiet early; if they can’t, the game is likely to tilt decisively towards the hosts.

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