La Liga 2025-2026: Valencia vs Alaves Prediction - 8 Mar 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Valencia

Home Team
50%
VS

Alaves

Away Team
24%
Draw: 25%
Over 2.5: 45%
Under 2.5: 55%
Goal: 52%
No Goal: 48%
Expected Corners: 9.8
Expected Shots: 23.9

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Barcelona 26 21 1 4 71 26 45 64
2 Real Madrid 26 19 3 4 54 22 32 60
3 Ath Madrid 26 15 6 5 43 23 20 51
4 Villarreal 26 16 3 7 48 31 17 51
5 Betis 26 11 10 5 42 32 10 43
6 Celta 26 10 10 6 36 28 8 40
7 Espanol 26 10 6 10 33 39 -6 36
8 Sociedad 26 9 8 9 38 38 0 35
9 Betis 26 10 5 11 30 36 -6 35
10 Osasuna 26 9 6 11 30 30 0 33
11 Getafe 26 9 5 12 21 29 -8 32
12 Vallecano 26 7 9 10 26 32 -6 30
13 Sevilla 26 8 6 12 34 41 -7 30
14 Girona 26 7 9 10 27 42 -15 30
15 Valencia 26 7 8 11 27 39 -12 29
16 Alaves 26 7 6 13 23 34 -11 27
17 Elche 26 5 11 10 34 39 -5 26
18 Mallorca 26 6 6 14 29 42 -13 24
19 Levante 26 5 6 15 28 44 -16 21
20 Oviedo 26 3 8 15 16 43 -27 17

Recent Trends

Valencia W L W L L

  • Last Match: W vs Osasuna (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Villarreal (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Levante (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Real Madrid (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Betis (Goals: 1 - 2)

Alaves L D D L W

  • Last Match: L vs Levante (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Girona (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Sevilla (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Getafe (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Espanol (Goals: 2 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Valencia

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.77
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 0.70
# Clean Sheets: 2

Alaves

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.21
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.49
# Clean Sheets: 0

Key Prediction Insights

Valencia are slight favourites at Mestalla, with a 50.0% chance of taking all three points against an Alaves side given just a 24.0% chance of an away win (draw at 25.0%). The model points towards a tight home victory and an *under 2.5* goals prediction, with only a 45.0% probability of the game producing three or more goals. In the table, Valencia sit 15th on 29 points, two ahead of 16th-placed Alaves on 27, making this a direct mid-lower table clash with real relegation pressure.

Match Analysis

Valencia come into this on the back of two wins from their last three matches: a 1-0 home success over Osasuna and a 2-0 away win at Levante, either side of a narrow 2-1 defeat at Villarreal. Those results hint at a team tightening up defensively – two clean sheets in three – while still carrying enough threat to edge close games. Over their last five outings they average 1.2 goals scored and 1.2 conceded, but their expected goals tell a more positive story: 1.77 xG created per match against just 0.70 xG allowed, underlining a side that generally controls chance quality even if the scorelines stay modest. Alaves, by contrast, are grinding rather than flying. They are winless in three, with a 2-0 defeat at Levante following back-to-back draws against Girona (2-2) and Sevilla (1-1). There’s spirit and volume – 17 shots against both Levante and Girona – but less efficiency at both ends. Over the last five games they’ve averaged 0.8 goals scored and 1.6 conceded, with 1.21 xG for and 1.49 xG against, and no clean sheets in that run. That mix of vulnerability and bluntness, especially away from home, explains why Valencia are given the edge.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Valencia
Goals in last 5 matches
Alaves
Goals in last 5 matches
The model leans to an *under 2.5* outcome, with the over 2.5 prediction sitting at just 45.0%. Two of Valencia’s last three matches have finished under 2.5 goals (1-0 vs Osasuna, 2-0 at Levante), with only the 2-1 loss at Villarreal going over. Alaves have seen one over (2-2 vs Girona) and two unders (2-0 loss at Levante, 1-1 at Sevilla) in their last three. With Valencia posting only 1.2 goals scored and 1.2 conceded on average, and Alaves at 0.8 for and 1.6 against, plus neither side’s xG numbers exploding, a low-scoring contest fits the data.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Valencia
Corners in last 5 matches
Alaves
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction points to around 9.75 total corners, which aligns with recent patterns for both teams. Valencia’s last three have produced 9, 9 and 5 corners respectively, while Alaves’ games have seen 16, 13 and 3 – a wide range but generally consistent with teams that attack in bursts rather than relentlessly. Given Valencia’s tendency to create sustained pressure at home and Alaves’ willingness to shoot from volume rather than quality, the predicted corners total around the 9–10 mark is reasonable.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Valencia
Shots in last 5 matches
Alaves
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
With expected shots set at 23.93 in total, this match should see a healthy but not frantic level of attempts. Valencia’s last three outings brought 14, 8 and 5 shots, while they faced 8, 12 and 9, suggesting moderate shot counts with a defensive base. Alaves have been more shot-happy: 17, 17 and 12 efforts for, while allowing 22, 10 and 4. Linking this shots prediction to the xG numbers, we can expect plenty of efforts but not necessarily a clinical finishing display, reinforcing the under 2.5 outlook.

Final Prediction

Valencia’s stronger underlying numbers – especially the 1.77 xG created and 0.70 xG conceded over their recent run – and home advantage give them a narrow but real edge over an Alaves side struggling to turn effort into points. The key factor to watch will be whether Valencia’s improving defence can maintain control against Alaves’ high shot volume; if they do, a tight home win looks on the cards.

Get Daily Football Predictions

Enjoyed this analysis? Subscribe to our Telegram channel and receive daily AI-driven football predictions directly on your phone.

Join Our Telegram Channel