La Liga 2025-2026: Valencia vs Ath Madrid Prediction - 2 May 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Valencia

Home Team
39%
VS

Ath Madrid

Away Team
36%
Draw: 25%
Over 2.5: 45%
Under 2.5: 55%
Goal: 50%
No Goal: 50%
Expected Corners: 9.2
Expected Shots: 23.0
Expected Spread: +0.1

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Barcelona 33 28 1 4 87 30 57 85
2 Real Madrid 33 23 5 5 68 31 37 74
3 Villarreal 33 20 5 8 59 38 21 65
4 Ath Madrid 33 18 6 9 56 37 19 60
5 Betis 33 12 14 7 49 41 8 50
6 Getafe 33 13 5 15 28 34 -6 44
7 Celta 33 11 11 11 45 43 2 44
8 Sociedad 33 11 10 12 52 52 0 43
9 Osasuna 33 11 9 13 39 40 -1 42
10 Betis 33 12 5 16 36 48 -12 41
11 Vallecano 33 9 12 12 33 41 -8 39
12 Valencia 33 10 9 14 37 48 -11 39
13 Espanol 33 10 9 14 37 49 -12 39
14 Elche 33 9 11 13 44 50 -6 38
15 Girona 33 9 11 13 36 50 -14 38
16 Alaves 33 9 9 15 38 49 -11 36
17 Mallorca 33 9 8 16 41 51 -10 35
18 Sevilla 33 9 7 17 40 55 -15 34
19 Levante 33 8 9 16 37 50 -13 33
20 Oviedo 33 6 10 17 26 51 -25 28

Recent Trends

Valencia W D L L W

  • Last Match: W vs Girona (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Mallorca (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Elche (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Celta (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Sevilla (Goals: 2 - 0)

Ath Madrid W L L L L

  • Last Match: W vs Ath Bilbao (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Elche (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Sevilla (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Barcelona (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Real Madrid (Goals: 2 - 3)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Valencia

xG (avg) 1.49
xGA (avg) 1.15
Clean Sheets 1

Ath Madrid

xG (avg) 0.94
xGA (avg) 2.50
Clean Sheets 0

Key Prediction Insights

Valencia are marginally tipped to edge this one at Mestalla, with a 39.0% chance of a home win against Ath Madrid’s 36.0%, and a draw at 25.0%. The model leans towards a low‑scoring contest with an under 2.5 goals prediction at 55.0% implied (given 45.0% for over). In the table, Ath Madrid are 4th on 60 points chasing the Champions League spots, while Valencia sit 12th on 39 points and still looking over their shoulder at the relegation battle.

Match Analysis

Valencia come in with mixed but encouraging form: a home win over Girona (2-1), a solid away draw at Mallorca (1-1), and a narrow, frustrating defeat at Elche (0-1) despite dominating with 22 shots and 9 corners. Across the last five games they’ve averaged 1.6 goals scored and 1.6 conceded, with an expected goals figure of 1.486 going forward and 1.154 against – signs of a side capable of creating slightly more than they allow, especially at home. Ath Madrid, by contrast, are wobbling. They needed a 3-2 home win over Athletic Bilbao to halt back‑to‑back away defeats at Elche (2-3) and Sevilla (1-2). The worrying part is the underlying numbers: just 1.2 goals scored and 2.2 conceded on average over the last five, with xG of only 0.942 for and a hefty 2.502 against. No clean sheets in that spell underline a defence that is allowing too many chances and a front line not generating consistent volume.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Valencia
Goals in last 5 matches
Ath Madrid
Goals in last 5 matches
The model’s over 2.5 prediction is only 45.0%, so the call is firmly under 2.5. Two of Valencia’s last three matches finished under 2.5 goals (1-1 at Mallorca, 0-1 at Elche), and Ath Madrid have had one under and two overs (3-2, 2-3, 1-2) in the same span. With Valencia’s recent averages at 1.6 scored and 1.6 conceded, and Ath Madrid at 1.2 for and 2.2 against – but both with modest attacking xG – the under 2.5 looks slightly more reliable than a goal fest.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Valencia
Corners in last 5 matches
Ath Madrid
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction points to around 9.21 total corners, roughly in line with what both sides have been producing. Valencia’s last three show 8, 11 and 14 total corners, while Ath Madrid’s games brought 7, 16 and 12 – big swings, but always involving spells of pressure at both ends. With Valencia at home expected to push and Ath Madrid dangerous in transition, the predicted corners total around nine fits two teams that can force set‑pieces without playing nonstop end‑to‑end football.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Valencia
Shots in last 5 matches
Ath Madrid
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots figure is 23.03 in total, suggesting a competitive but not wild shot count. Valencia’s last three matches saw them take 12, 10 and 22 shots, while facing 7, 20 and 8 – a sign of a side capable of big volume when they get on top. Ath Madrid, conversely, have been oddly low-volume in attack (6, 6 and 13 shots) while allowing 12, 14 and 11. That balance between Valencia’s willingness to shoot and Athleti’s leaky defence underpins this shots prediction and lines up with the moderate xG numbers.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Valencia wins by X goals. Negative = Ath Madrid wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Valencia vs Ath Madrid with expected spread of +0.1
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Valencia vs Ath Madrid
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The goal spread prediction is essentially even, at an expected spread of +0.05 in Valencia’s favour – a tiny edge to the home side. Over the last three, Valencia’s goal difference is level (3 scored, 3 conceded), while Ath Madrid’s is negative (6 scored, 7 conceded), echoing the model’s slight tilt towards the hosts. With win probabilities close (39.0% vs 36.0%) and Valencia’s defensive xG profile a bit better, the expected spread staying near zero makes sense.

Final Prediction

Valencia’s edge comes from home advantage, slightly stronger recent underlying numbers, and Ath Madrid’s defensive fragility over the last few weeks. The key factor to watch will be whether Athleti can tighten up without sacrificing what little attacking output they’ve had; if they can’t, Valencia’s aggression at Mestalla could be just enough to turn a finely balanced contest their way.

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