La Liga 2025-2026: Valencia vs Celta Prediction - 5 Apr 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Valencia

Home Team
41%
VS

Celta

Away Team
34%
Draw: 25%
Over 2.5: 44%
Under 2.5: 56%
Goal: 49%
No Goal: 51%
Expected Corners: 9.3
Expected Shots: 23.1

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Barcelona 29 24 1 4 78 28 50 73
2 Real Madrid 29 22 3 4 63 26 37 69
3 Villarreal 29 18 4 7 54 34 20 58
4 Ath Madrid 29 17 6 6 49 28 21 57
5 Betis 29 11 11 7 44 37 7 44
6 Celta 29 10 11 8 41 35 6 41
7 Sociedad 29 10 8 11 44 45 -1 38
8 Getafe 29 11 5 13 25 31 -6 38
9 Betis 29 11 5 13 32 41 -9 38
10 Osasuna 29 10 7 12 34 35 -1 37
11 Espanol 29 10 7 12 36 44 -8 37
12 Valencia 29 9 8 12 32 42 -10 35
13 Girona 29 8 10 11 31 44 -13 34
14 Vallecano 29 7 11 11 28 35 -7 32
15 Sevilla 29 8 7 14 37 49 -12 31
16 Alaves 29 8 7 14 30 41 -11 31
17 Elche 29 6 11 12 38 46 -8 29
18 Mallorca 29 7 7 15 34 47 -13 28
19 Levante 29 6 8 15 34 48 -14 26
20 Oviedo 29 4 9 16 20 48 -28 21

Recent Trends

Valencia W L W W L

  • Last Match: W vs Sevilla (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Oviedo (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Alaves (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Osasuna (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Villarreal (Goals: 1 - 2)

Celta L D L W W

  • Last Match: L vs Alaves (Goals: 3 - 4)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Betis (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Real Madrid (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Girona (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Mallorca (Goals: 2 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Valencia

xG (avg) 1.84
xGA (avg) 0.98
Clean Sheets 2

Celta

xG (avg) 1.21
xGA (avg) 1.45
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

Valencia are slight favourites at Mestalla, with a 41.0% chance of taking all three points compared to Celta’s 34.0%, and the model leans towards a home win. The over/under line tilts to a cagey affair: the under 2.5 prediction comes with a 56.0% implied likelihood. In the table, Celta arrive better placed in 6th on 41 points, while Valencia sit 12th on 35 and still looking up the standings.

Match Analysis

Valencia’s last three outings have been a mix of grit and inconsistency: a 3-2 home win over Alaves, a flat 0-1 defeat at Oviedo, and a convincing 2-0 victory away to Sevilla. The pattern is clear – when they impose themselves, they generate plenty of threat, as shown by 19 shots and 10 corners against Alaves, but they can still slip into sterile spells like in Oviedo. Over the last five games they average 1.6 goals scored and 1.4 conceded, backed by strong attacking numbers at 1.842 expected goals per match and just 0.984 expected goals against, plus two clean sheets that hint at growing defensive stability. Celta come into this with a wobble: a chaotic 3-4 home loss to Alaves, a disciplined 1-1 draw away at Betis, and a narrow 1-2 defeat to Real Madrid. They’ve been competitive but not ruthless, averaging 1.2 goals scored and 1.4 conceded over their last five matches, with 1.21 expected goals for and 1.452 against. That balance suggests they can create, but they allow chances too, and only one clean sheet in that stretch underlines a defence that can be opened up, particularly away from Vigo against a front-foot Valencia.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Valencia
Goals in last 5 matches
Celta
Goals in last 5 matches
The model leans to under 2.5 with a 56.0% probability, despite a 44.0% chance for over 2.5 goals. Valencia’s recent games have been split: two of their last three (3-2 vs Alaves and 2-0 at Sevilla) went under/over in opposite directions, with the Oviedo defeat clearly under. Celta also have one clear over (3-4 vs Alaves) and two tighter matches (1-1 at Betis, 1-2 vs Real Madrid) hovering around the line. With Valencia’s xG profile (1.842 for, 0.984 against) and Celta’s more modest 1.21 for, 1.452 against, the over 2.5 prediction is not favoured; the numbers point more towards a controlled, narrow home win rather than a shoot-out.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Valencia
Corners in last 5 matches
Celta
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction sits at 9.31 total, hinting at a match with a steady but not extreme flow of attacks. Valencia’s last three have produced 10-2, 7-4 and 3-1 corner counts, showing they can pile up set pieces when they dominate territory, especially at home. Celta’s games have been quieter on that front – 4-1, 4-3 and 1-6 – suggesting they often concede territory against stronger opponents and break rather than camp in the final third. Put together, the predicted corners figure fits a scenario where Valencia press and probe while Celta look for selective counters.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Valencia
Shots in last 5 matches
Celta
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots total is 23.07, in line with what both sides have shown recently. Valencia have posted 19, 13 and 9 shots in their last three, while allowing 10, 11 and 13 – a profile of a team usually willing to pull the trigger, especially at Mestalla. Celta’s recent shot numbers (12 and 8 at home, 7 away to Betis) show they can be dangerous but not relentlessly high volume. The shots prediction matches the xG picture: Valencia’s higher attacking output and better expected goals against suggest they should edge both shot count and chance quality.

Final Prediction

Valencia’s stronger underlying metrics, home advantage and recent clean sheets give them a slight but real edge over a Celta side that is higher in the table but leaking chances. If Los Che can reproduce the energy and aggression of their win over Alaves, they have the tools to turn territorial pressure into a narrow, low-scoring victory. Watch the midfield battle: whichever side controls that area should dictate the tempo and, ultimately, the result.

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