La Liga 2025-2026: Valencia vs Girona Prediction - 25 Apr 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Valencia

Home Team
58%
VS

Girona

Away Team
21%
Draw: 21%
Over 2.5: 47%
Under 2.5: 53%
Goal: 54%
No Goal: 46%
Expected Corners: 9.6
Expected Shots: 24.5
Expected Spread: +0.7

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Barcelona 32 27 1 4 85 30 55 82
2 Real Madrid 32 23 4 5 67 30 37 73
3 Villarreal 32 19 5 8 57 37 20 62
4 Ath Madrid 32 17 6 9 53 35 18 57
5 Betis 32 12 13 7 48 40 8 49
6 Getafe 32 13 5 14 28 32 -4 44
7 Celta 32 11 11 10 44 41 3 44
8 Sociedad 32 11 9 12 49 49 0 42
9 Betis 32 12 5 15 34 45 -11 41
10 Osasuna 32 10 9 13 37 39 -2 39
11 Vallecano 32 9 11 12 30 38 -8 38
12 Espanol 32 10 8 14 37 49 -12 38
13 Girona 32 9 11 12 35 48 -13 38
14 Valencia 32 9 9 14 35 47 -12 36
15 Mallorca 32 9 8 15 40 49 -9 35
16 Elche 32 8 11 13 42 49 -7 35
17 Sevilla 32 9 7 16 39 53 -14 34
18 Alaves 32 8 9 15 36 48 -12 33
19 Levante 32 8 8 16 37 50 -13 32
20 Oviedo 32 6 10 16 25 49 -24 28

Recent Trends

Valencia D L L W L

  • Last Match: D vs Mallorca (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Elche (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Celta (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Sevilla (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Oviedo (Goals: 0 - 1)

Girona L D W L W

  • Last Match: L vs Betis (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Real Madrid (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Villarreal (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Osasuna (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Ath Bilbao (Goals: 3 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Valencia

xG (avg) 1.58
xGA (avg) 1.23
Clean Sheets 1

Girona

xG (avg) 1.46
xGA (avg) 1.63
Clean Sheets 2

Key Prediction Insights

Valencia are favoured at Mestalla, with a 58.0% probability of taking all three points against Girona, who are given a 21.0% chance, with the draw also at 21.0%. The model leans towards a tight game, with an under 2.5 goals prediction at 47.0% and only a slight edge for goals overall. In the table, Girona sit 13th on 38 points, just two clear of 14th-placed Valencia on 36, underlining how big this mid-table clash is.

Match Analysis

Valencia come into this on a three-game winless run (two defeats and a draw), but their recent results don’t fully match their underlying performances. They dominated Elche away with 22 shots and nine corners yet lost 0-1, and against Celta they created plenty again (13 shots, six corners) but were edged 2-3. Across their last five games they’ve averaged 1.8 goals scored and 1.8 conceded, backed by 1.578 xG for and only 1.228 xG against – the profile of a side playing better than their league position suggests, but paying for lapses at the back. Girona’s last three outings have been steadier: a battling 1-1 draw at Real Madrid, a 1-0 home win over Villarreal and a narrow 2-3 home loss to Betis. They’ve shown they can frustrate stronger opponents, yet their averages over the last five games tell a mixed story: just 1.0 goal scored and 1.2 conceded per match, despite 1.456 xG for and 1.632 xG against. That points to a team that allows chances and is a little wasteful in attack, which is risky away at a Valencia side that tends to generate pressure, especially at home.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Valencia
Goals in last 5 matches
Girona
Goals in last 5 matches
The model edges towards an under 2.5 prediction, with under 2.5 goals slightly more likely than over despite a 54.0% chance that both teams score. Two of Valencia’s last three matches went over 2.5 goals (2-3 vs Celta, 1-1 vs Mallorca under), while two of Girona’s last three also cleared the line (2-3 vs Betis, 1-1 at Madrid under, 1-0 vs Villarreal under). With Valencia averaging 1.8 scored and 1.8 conceded and Girona at 1.0 for and 1.2 against, plus relatively modest xG figures on both sides, a tight, low-scoring contest fits the numbers.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Valencia
Corners in last 5 matches
Girona
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction points to around 9.57 total corners, suggesting a moderately open game without being end-to-end chaos. Valencia’s last three have produced 10, 14 and 6 total corners respectively, with the hosts racking up big tallies at Elche (9) and against Celta (6), reflecting a side that attacks with width and forces set-pieces. Girona’s games have been slightly quieter in this area — 4, 11 and 11 total corners — but still show they can both win and concede corners when stretched, supporting the predicted corners total around the 9–10 mark.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Valencia
Shots in last 5 matches
Girona
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots total sits at 24.46, which lines up well with how both teams have been playing. Valencia’s last three matches have seen 30, 30 and 23 total shots, underlining their willingness to shoot and to allow efforts at the other end. Girona’s recent games have produced 16, 32 and 19 shots respectively; combined with their xG of 1.456 for and 1.632 against, this shots prediction feels realistic for a game where both sides trade efforts without it becoming a complete shootout.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Valencia wins by X goals. Negative = Girona wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Valencia vs Girona with expected spread of +0.7
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Valencia vs Girona
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The goal spread prediction has Valencia at +0.66, meaning the home side are expected to win by roughly two-thirds of a goal on average. Valencia’s last three results show a goal difference of -2 overall, while Girona’s is level (3 scored, 4 conceded), but the underlying xG tilt slightly in Valencia’s favour. With the hosts enjoying a 58.0% win probability, stronger recent attacking numbers and home advantage, the expected spread of Valencia -0.66 is consistent with a narrow but deserved home win.

Final Prediction

Valencia’s stronger attacking metrics, home advantage and Girona’s tendency to concede decent chances give the hosts a real edge in this one. Girona’s organisation and capacity to nick results against bigger sides mean it should still be competitive, but over 90 minutes Valencia look better equipped to turn pressure into goals. A key factor to watch will be how often Valencia can pin Girona back into their own box, turning shots and wide attacks into the corners and set-pieces that could decide the match.

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