La Liga 2025-2026: Valencia vs Osasuna Prediction - 1 Mar 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Valencia

Home Team
59%
VS

Osasuna

Away Team
20%
Draw: 21%
Over 2.5: 47%
Under 2.5: 53%
Goal: 51%
No Goal: 49%
Expected Corners: 9.4
Expected Shots: 23.1

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Barcelona 25 20 1 4 67 25 42 61
2 Real Madrid 25 19 3 3 54 21 33 60
3 Villarreal 25 16 3 6 47 27 20 51
4 Ath Madrid 25 14 6 5 42 23 19 48
5 Betis 25 11 9 5 40 30 10 42
6 Celta 25 9 10 6 34 27 7 37
7 Espanol 25 10 5 10 31 37 -6 35
8 Betis 25 10 4 11 29 35 -6 34
9 Osasuna 25 9 6 10 30 29 1 33
10 Sociedad 25 8 8 9 37 38 -1 32
11 Girona 25 7 9 9 26 40 -14 30
12 Sevilla 25 8 5 12 32 39 -7 29
13 Getafe 25 8 5 12 20 29 -9 29
14 Alaves 25 7 6 12 23 32 -9 27
15 Vallecano 24 6 8 10 22 31 -9 26
16 Valencia 25 6 8 11 26 39 -13 26
17 Elche 25 5 10 10 32 37 -5 25
18 Mallorca 25 6 6 13 29 41 -12 24
19 Levante 25 4 6 15 26 44 -18 18
20 Oviedo 24 3 8 13 16 39 -23 17

Recent Trends

Valencia L W L L W

  • Last Match: L vs Villarreal (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Levante (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Real Madrid (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Betis (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Espanol (Goals: 3 - 2)

Osasuna W D W D W

  • Last Match: W vs Real Madrid (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Elche (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Celta (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Villarreal (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Vallecano (Goals: 3 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Valencia

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.76
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 0.78
# Clean Sheets: 1

Osasuna

Average Expected Goals (xG): 0.93
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.63
# Clean Sheets: 1

Key Prediction Insights

Valencia are favoured to take all three points at Mestalla, with a 59.0% chance of a home win against an Osasuna side given a 20.0% probability of the upset and a 21.0% chance of a draw. The model leans towards a tight contest, with an under 2.5 goals prediction despite a slight 51.0% edge for both teams to score. In the table, Osasuna sit 9th on 33 points, while Valencia are down in 16th on 26 points and still looking over their shoulder at the relegation zone.

Match Analysis

Valencia come into this one with mixed form: a narrow 2-1 defeat at high-flying Villarreal, a solid 2-0 away win at Levante, and a 2-0 home loss to Real Madrid. Those results underline their inconsistency but also show they can keep things organised, especially away, when the structure is right. Over the last five games they’ve averaged 1.2 goals scored and 1.4 conceded, but their underlying numbers are stronger: 1.76 expected goals (xG) created and only 0.78 xG allowed per match, plus one clean sheet in that run. Osasuna, 9th and relatively comfortable, are on a more positive run of results: a statement 2-1 home win over Real Madrid, a 0-0 stalemate at Elche, and a 2-1 victory away at Celta. They’re grinding out points, but the metrics hint at some fragility. In their last five they’ve averaged 1.0 goal scored and 1.0 conceded, yet their xG figures tell a different story: just 0.93 xG for and a hefty 1.63 xG against per game, with only one clean sheet. That suggests they allow more chances than the raw scorelines show, a potential opening for Valencia at home.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Valencia
Goals in last 5 matches
Osasuna
Goals in last 5 matches
The model points towards an under 2.5 outcome, despite only a modest 47.0% probability for over 2.5 goals. Two of Valencia’s last three games finished under 2.5 (2-0 vs Levante, 0-2 vs Real Madrid), with only the 2-1 loss at Villarreal edging over. Osasuna have seen two of their last three matches go over 2.5 (2-1 vs Madrid, 2-1 vs Celta), with the 0-0 at Elche pulling in the other direction. Given Valencia’s recent averages of 1.2 scored and 1.4 conceded, combined with Osasuna’s 1.0 for and 1.0 against and relatively modest xG on both sides, a cagey, low-scoring game fits the under 2.5 profile.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Valencia
Corners in last 5 matches
Osasuna
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction points to around 9.42 total corners, suggesting a moderate but not frantic game in wide areas. Valencia’s recent matches produced 9, 5 and 13 total corners respectively, while Osasuna’s yielded 10, 13 and 10, hinting at teams that do allow opponents to get into crossing positions. With both sides capable of sustained spells of pressure but not relentlessly attacking for 90 minutes, the predicted corners tally feels in line with two balanced mid-table sides.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Valencia
Shots in last 5 matches
Osasuna
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots figure stands at 23.07 total attempts, which fits how both teams have been playing. Valencia’s last three games saw combined shot counts of 20, 14 and 18, while Osasuna’s produced 28, 23 and 26. Those numbers match a shots prediction in the low-to-mid 20s, and link well with the xG profiles: Valencia generating more quality per chance, Osasuna conceding a fair volume of opportunities.

Final Prediction

Valencia’s edge comes from the combination of home advantage and superior recent xG numbers at both ends of the pitch, even if the league table favours Osasuna. The key factor to watch will be whether Valencia can turn their better chance creation into goals against an Osasuna defence that has been getting results but allowing plenty of opportunities.

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