La Liga 2025-2026: Vallecano vs Ath Bilbao Prediction - 28 Feb 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Vallecano

Home Team
22%
VS

Ath Bilbao

Away Team
59%
Draw: 19%
Over 2.5: 51%
Under 2.5: 49%
Goal: 55%
No Goal: 45%
Expected Corners: 9.7
Expected Shots: 24.8

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Barcelona 25 20 1 4 67 25 42 61
2 Real Madrid 25 19 3 3 54 21 33 60
3 Villarreal 25 16 3 6 47 27 20 51
4 Ath Madrid 25 14 6 5 42 23 19 48
5 Betis 25 11 9 5 40 30 10 42
6 Celta 25 9 10 6 34 27 7 37
7 Espanol 25 10 5 10 31 37 -6 35
8 Betis 25 10 4 11 29 35 -6 34
9 Osasuna 25 9 6 10 30 29 1 33
10 Sociedad 25 8 8 9 37 38 -1 32
11 Girona 25 7 9 9 26 40 -14 30
12 Sevilla 25 8 5 12 32 39 -7 29
13 Getafe 25 8 5 12 20 29 -9 29
14 Alaves 25 7 6 12 23 32 -9 27
15 Vallecano 24 6 8 10 22 31 -9 26
16 Valencia 25 6 8 11 26 39 -13 26
17 Elche 25 5 10 10 32 37 -5 25
18 Mallorca 25 6 6 13 29 41 -12 24
19 Levante 25 4 6 15 26 44 -18 18
20 Oviedo 24 3 8 13 16 39 -23 17

Recent Trends

Vallecano D W L L L

  • Last Match: D vs Betis (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Ath Madrid (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Real Madrid (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Osasuna (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Celta (Goals: 0 - 3)

Ath Bilbao W W W D L

  • Last Match: W vs Elche (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Oviedo (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Levante (Goals: 4 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Sociedad (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Sevilla (Goals: 1 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Vallecano

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.66
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 0.93
# Clean Sheets: 1

Ath Bilbao

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.72
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.65
# Clean Sheets: 0

Key Prediction Insights

Athletic Bilbao are clear favourites here, with a 59.0% chance of taking all three points away to Vallecano, who are sitting 15th with 26 points from 24 games. Bilbao are higher up the table and pushing for Europe in a crowded mid‑upper pack, while Vallecano are still looking over their shoulder at the relegation battle. The model leans towards an open contest, with an over 2.5 goals prediction at 51.0% and both teams expected to score (55.0% goal probability).

Match Analysis

Vallecano come into this with a quietly solid run of performances: a 1-1 draw at Betis, a superb 3-0 home win over Atlético Madrid, and a narrow 2-1 defeat away to Real Madrid. They’ve taken four points from three tough fixtures, and importantly they’ve been competitive in all of them, creating chances (12, 13 and 11 shots respectively) and never being overwhelmed. Their recent averages – 1.4 goals scored and just 1.0 conceded per game over the last five – show a side that is more balanced than their 15th place suggests. The xG numbers back that up: 1.662 expected goals for and only 0.926 against on average hint at a team that generally wins the chance battle. Athletic Bilbao arrive in excellent form in terms of results, with three straight wins: 2-1 over Elche, 2-1 at Oviedo and 4-2 at home to Levante. They’ve scored eight across those matches, and the shot volumes are eye-catching – 18, 13 and 22 attempts – suggesting a side that is consistently on the front foot. Defensively, though, they’ve been open: conceding at least once in all of their last five and averaging 1.8 goals against. Their attacking xG is strong at 1.724 per game, but the 1.648 xG conceded shows that they allow a fair amount in return, which should give Vallecano encouragement at home.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Vallecano
Goals in last 5 matches
Ath Bilbao
Goals in last 5 matches
With a 51.0% probability, the over 2.5 prediction edges it. Two of Vallecano’s last three league games have gone over 2.5 goals (3-0 vs Atlético, 1-2 at Real Madrid), with only the 1-1 at Betis staying under. For Bilbao, all of their last three ended over 2.5 (3, 3 and 6 total goals). The combination of Vallecano’s 1.4 scored and 1.0 conceded per game, plus Bilbao’s 1.2 scored and 1.8 conceded – aligned with both sides producing and allowing around 1.7 xG – supports the idea of another high‑scoring encounter rather than an under 2.5 grind.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Vallecano
Corners in last 5 matches
Ath Bilbao
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The predicted corners total for this match is 9.7, pointing towards a game with a reasonable but not extreme number of set‑piece situations. Vallecano’s recent corner counts (5-3, 4-8, 4-9) show they both win and concede plenty, especially when defending for stretches against stronger sides. Bilbao’s last three (4-1, 3-2, 4-3) are more controlled but still reflect an attacking team that reaches the final third often. Taken together, the corners prediction around the 9–10 mark fits the picture of two proactive teams, with Bilbao slightly more dominant in territory.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Vallecano
Shots in last 5 matches
Ath Bilbao
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots total is 24.82, which matches what both sides have been producing. Vallecano’s last three games saw combined shot counts of 26, 22 and 27, while Bilbao’s produced 20, 20 and an explosive 28. Given Bilbao’s attacking xG of 1.724 and Vallecano’s 1.662, the shots prediction around 25 attempts overall feels realistic: Bilbao to fire regularly, with Vallecano threatening on transitions and at home.

Final Prediction

Bilbao’s edge comes from their momentum, higher league standing and more consistent attacking volume, which is why they’re given a 59.0% chance to win despite playing away. Vallecano’s recent xG and results against top opposition suggest they won’t roll over, and both teams’ openness points towards goals. The key factor to watch will be how Vallecano’s compact defensive structure copes with Bilbao’s high shot output; if the visitors start pinning them back early, the game could tilt decisively in Athletic’s favour.

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