La Liga 2025-2026: Vallecano vs Ath Madrid Prediction - 15 Feb 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Vallecano

Home Team
10%
VS

Ath Madrid

Away Team
80%
Draw: 10%
Over 2.5: 48%
Under 2.5: 52%
Goal: 52%
No Goal: 48%
Expected Corners: 10.2
Expected Shots: 24.1

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Barcelona 23 19 1 3 63 23 40 58
2 Real Madrid 23 18 3 2 49 18 31 57
3 Ath Madrid 23 13 6 4 38 18 20 45
4 Villarreal 22 14 3 5 43 24 19 45
5 Betis 23 10 8 5 37 28 9 38
6 Espanol 23 10 4 9 27 31 -4 34
7 Celta 23 8 9 6 30 25 5 33
8 Sociedad 23 8 7 8 33 31 2 31
9 Osasuna 23 8 5 10 28 28 0 29
10 Betis 23 8 4 11 25 33 -8 28
11 Getafe 23 7 5 11 18 27 -9 26
12 Girona 23 6 8 9 22 37 -15 26
13 Sevilla 23 7 4 12 30 38 -8 25
14 Alaves 23 7 4 12 20 29 -9 25
15 Elche 23 5 9 9 31 35 -4 24
16 Mallorca 23 6 6 11 28 37 -9 24
17 Valencia 23 5 8 10 23 37 -14 23
18 Vallecano 22 5 7 10 18 30 -12 22
19 Levante 22 4 6 12 26 38 -12 18
20 Oviedo 22 3 7 12 12 34 -22 16

Recent Trends

Vallecano L L L W D

  • Last Match: L vs Real Madrid (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Osasuna (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Celta (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Mallorca (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Getafe (Goals: 1 - 1)

Ath Madrid L D W W D

  • Last Match: L vs Betis (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Levante (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Mallorca (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Alaves (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Sociedad (Goals: 1 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Vallecano

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.54
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 0.96
# Clean Sheets: 0

Ath Madrid

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.07
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.58
# Clean Sheets: 3

Key Prediction Insights

Atlético Madrid are strong favourites here, with an 80.0% probability of taking all three points away to Vallecano, who have just a 10.0% chance of an upset and sit 18th in La Liga, inside the relegation zone. Atlético, currently 3rd and chasing a Champions League place, are also expected to be involved in a tight encounter on the scoreboard, with the model leaning towards an under 2.5 goals prediction despite a 48.0% chance of the game going over 2.5. A draw is also rated at only 10.0%, underlining how heavily the balance tilts towards the visitors.

Match Analysis

Vallecano come into this match on a worrying three-game losing streak: 1-2 at Real Madrid, 1-3 at home to Osasuna, and 0-3 away at Celta. The results are poor, but the performances haven’t been quite as dire as the scorelines suggest; across the last five games they’ve averaged 1.538 expected goals for and only 0.956 against, yet they have no clean sheets in that period and are conceding 1.2 goals per match. The big issue is both boxes: they’re not turning decent chance creation into enough goals (just 1.0 scored per game) and they’re being punished heavily when they do concede. Atlético Madrid have also had mixed results recently, with a 3-0 home win over Mallorca sandwiched between a 0-0 draw at Levante and a 0-1 home defeat to Betis. Interestingly, their underlying numbers show 1.074 expected goals for but a relatively high 1.578 expected goals against over the last five outings, even though they’ve kept 3 clean sheets and conceded only 1.0 goal per game. That combination suggests a team relying on defensive organisation and efficiency in both penalty areas, which matches their reputation and helps explain why they’re 3rd with 38 scored and only 18 conceded in 23 league games.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Vallecano
Goals in last 5 matches
Ath Madrid
Goals in last 5 matches
The model favours under 2.5 with a 52.0% probability, even though this is only slightly stronger than the chance of the match going over 2.5. Two of Vallecano’s last three games have finished with at least three goals (1-2 vs Real Madrid and 1-3 vs Osasuna), with only the 0-3 at Celta also landing over 2.5, so all three in fact went over the line. For Atlético, two of their last three stayed under 2.5 (0-0 at Levante, 0-1 vs Betis) and only the 3-0 win against Mallorca went over, aligning better with an under 2.5 prediction. With both teams averaging just 1.0 goal scored per match recently despite modest xG figures, a low-scoring contest is the likeliest script.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Vallecano
Corners in last 5 matches
Ath Madrid
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total corners for this match is 10.19, pointing towards a game with a healthy but not extreme number of set-piece situations. Vallecano’s last three games produced 4, 7 and 7 corners for them respectively (while conceding 9, 3 and 5), and Atlético’s recent matches show 7, 7 and 10 corners in their favour. Both sides have shown they can rack up corners when they press high and attack the flanks, so a corners prediction around ten fits with their recent patterns and the expectation of Atlético spending long spells in the attacking half.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Vallecano
Shots in last 5 matches
Ath Madrid
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total shots for this clash is 24.15, which is in line with how both teams have been playing. Vallecano’s last three outings saw them take 11, 11 and 14 shots, while facing 16, 14 and 11, suggesting open games with plenty of attempts from both ends. Atlético’s last three produced 10, 10 and 17 shots for and 8, 10 and 6 against, again backing an overall shots prediction in the mid‑20s. Those volumes match their xG trends: neither side is ruthless, but both generate enough efforts to keep the expected shots count relatively high.

Final Prediction

Atlético Madrid’s edge comes from their league position, defensive solidity (only 18 conceded all season, plus 3 recent clean sheets), and Vallecano’s fragile form and relegation pressure. Even if the underlying numbers hint that Vallecano can create chances, Atlético’s superior efficiency and organisation should make the difference. A key factor to watch will be whether Vallecano can finally turn their decent xG into goals against a disciplined Atlético back line, or whether Atlético’s clinical approach in both boxes keeps them firmly in control.

Get Daily Football Predictions

Enjoyed this analysis? Subscribe to our Telegram channel and receive daily AI-driven football predictions directly on your phone.

Join Our Telegram Channel