La Liga 2025-2026: Vallecano vs Elche Prediction - 3 Apr 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Vallecano

Home Team
63%
VS

Elche

Away Team
18%
Draw: 19%
Over 2.5: 56%
Under 2.5: 44%
Goal: 55%
No Goal: 45%
Expected Corners: 9.8
Expected Shots: 26.0

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Barcelona 29 24 1 4 78 28 50 73
2 Real Madrid 29 22 3 4 63 26 37 69
3 Villarreal 29 18 4 7 54 34 20 58
4 Ath Madrid 29 17 6 6 49 28 21 57
5 Betis 29 11 11 7 44 37 7 44
6 Celta 29 10 11 8 41 35 6 41
7 Sociedad 29 10 8 11 44 45 -1 38
8 Getafe 29 11 5 13 25 31 -6 38
9 Betis 29 11 5 13 32 41 -9 38
10 Osasuna 29 10 7 12 34 35 -1 37
11 Espanol 29 10 7 12 36 44 -8 37
12 Valencia 29 9 8 12 32 42 -10 35
13 Girona 29 8 10 11 31 44 -13 34
14 Vallecano 29 7 11 11 28 35 -7 32
15 Sevilla 29 8 7 14 37 49 -12 31
16 Alaves 29 8 7 14 30 41 -11 31
17 Elche 29 6 11 12 38 46 -8 29
18 Mallorca 29 7 7 15 34 47 -13 28
19 Levante 29 6 8 15 34 48 -14 26
20 Oviedo 29 4 9 16 20 48 -28 21

Recent Trends

Vallecano L D D W D

  • Last Match: L vs Barcelona (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Levante (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Sevilla (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Oviedo (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Ath Bilbao (Goals: 1 - 1)

Elche W L L D L

  • Last Match: W vs Mallorca (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Real Madrid (Goals: 1 - 4)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Villarreal (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Espanol (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Ath Bilbao (Goals: 1 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Vallecano

xG (avg) 1.80
xGA (avg) 1.00
Clean Sheets 1

Elche

xG (avg) 1.10
xGA (avg) 2.49
Clean Sheets 0

Key Prediction Insights

Vallecano are favoured to take all three points, with a 63.0% probability of a home win against an Elche side given just an 18.0% chance, and a 19.0% likelihood of a draw. Sitting 14th on 32 points, Vallecano have a little more breathing space than 17th‑placed Elche on 29 points, but both are still glancing nervously at the relegation zone. The game is also tipped to be open, with an over 2.5 goals prediction backed by a 56.0% probability.

Match Analysis

Vallecano come into this on the back of a tough but respectable run: a narrow 0-1 defeat away to leaders Barcelona, followed by back‑to‑back 1-1 draws against Levante at home and Sevilla away. Those results show a team hard to beat, keeping games tight while still creating chances – 18 shots versus Levante and 9 at Sevilla underline their willingness to attack. Their recent averages are strong: 1.8 goals scored and only 1.0 conceded per game over the last five, with xG figures (1.802 for, 1.004 against) backing up that they’re generally on the right side of the balance. Elche’s recent form is more chaotic. They beat relegation rival Mallorca 2-1 at home, but that win is bookended by a 1-4 defeat at Real Madrid and a 1-2 loss at Villarreal. They’ve found the net consistently – at least once in all three – but have shipped nine goals in that span. The advanced numbers are worrying defensively: conceding an average of 2.8 goals per game in the last five, with xG against at 2.486, suggests this is not just bad luck but a trend of giving up too many good chances. Their attack (1.2 goals scored, xG 1.098) is competitive, but not enough to compensate for that fragility at the back.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Vallecano
Goals in last 5 matches
Elche
Goals in last 5 matches
The model leans towards goals here, with a 56.0% likelihood of over 2.5 and a clear over 2.5 prediction. Two of Elche’s last three matches went over that line (3- and 5-goal games against Mallorca and Real Madrid), while all three of Vallecano’s most recent fixtures finished under 2.5. However, Vallecano’s five‑game averages of 1.8 scored and 1.0 conceded, alongside Elche’s 1.2 scored and 2.8 conceded, plus xG figures (1.802 vs 1.004 for Vallecano; 1.098 vs 2.486 for Elche), point to enough chances being created for this game to tip over rather than under 2.5.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Vallecano
Corners in last 5 matches
Elche
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction points to a moderately busy game, with 9.8 predicted corners overall. Vallecano’s last three have produced mixed numbers: 9 corners at Barcelona, 11 at home to Levante and 8 at Sevilla, reflecting a side that attacks in spells but can also be forced back. Elche’s recent matches saw 4, 9 and 10 total corners, so both teams are accustomed to games around this range. With both needing points and likely to push forward down the flanks, close to 10 predicted corners feels in line with their playing patterns.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Vallecano
Shots in last 5 matches
Elche
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots total is set at 25.97, suggesting a match with a fair amount of goalmouth action. Vallecano’s last three have featured 23, 37 and 20 total shots, while Elche’s produced 24, 25 and 29, which supports a shots prediction in the mid‑20s. Those volumes also marry up with the xG profiles: Vallecano regularly generate around 1.8 xG and Elche concede heavy xG, so the expected shots figure reflects a game where the hosts in particular should be able to pull the trigger often.

Final Prediction

Vallecano’s edge comes from their balance: a solid recent defensive record, better xG differential, and home advantage against an Elche side leaking chances and goals. Elche’s ability to score does keep the contest alive, but their defensive numbers leave them exposed. The key factor to watch will be how often Vallecano can exploit Elche’s back line; if the hosts maintain their recent attacking volume, the probabilities strongly favour a home win with goals.

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