La Liga 2025-2026: Vallecano vs Espanol Prediction - 23 Apr 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Vallecano

Home Team
59%
VS

Espanol

Away Team
20%
Draw: 20%
Over 2.5: 56%
Under 2.5: 44%
Goal: 53%
No Goal: 47%
Expected Corners: 9.7
Expected Shots: 26.4

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Barcelona 31 26 1 4 84 30 54 79
2 Real Madrid 31 22 4 5 65 29 36 70
3 Villarreal 31 19 4 8 56 36 20 61
4 Ath Madrid 31 17 6 8 51 32 19 57
5 Betis 31 11 13 7 45 38 7 46
6 Celta 31 11 11 9 44 40 4 44
7 Sociedad 31 11 9 11 49 48 1 42
8 Getafe 31 12 5 14 27 32 -5 41
9 Osasuna 31 10 9 12 37 38 -1 39
10 Espanol 31 10 8 13 37 48 -11 38
11 Betis 31 11 5 15 33 45 -12 38
12 Girona 31 9 11 11 33 45 -12 38
13 Vallecano 31 8 11 12 29 38 -9 35
14 Valencia 31 9 8 14 34 46 -12 35
15 Mallorca 31 9 7 15 39 48 -9 34
16 Sevilla 31 9 7 15 39 51 -12 34
17 Alaves 31 8 9 14 35 46 -11 33
18 Elche 31 7 11 13 39 47 -8 32
19 Levante 31 7 8 16 35 50 -15 29
20 Oviedo 31 6 9 16 24 48 -24 27

Recent Trends

Vallecano L W L D D

  • Last Match: L vs Mallorca (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Elche (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Barcelona (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Levante (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Sevilla (Goals: 1 - 1)

Espanol L D L L D

  • Last Match: L vs Barcelona (Goals: 1 - 4)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Betis (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Getafe (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Mallorca (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Oviedo (Goals: 1 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Vallecano

xG (avg) 1.97
xGA (avg) 0.85
Clean Sheets 1

Espanol

xG (avg) 0.90
xGA (avg) 2.51
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

Vallecano are slight but clear favourites here, with a 59.0% probability of a home win against an Espanol side given just a 20.0% chance, and a 20.0% likelihood of a draw. The model also leans towards goals, with an over 2.5 prediction at 56.0% probability. In the table, Espanol sit 10th on 38 points, while Vallecano are 13th on 35, so a home victory would tighten that mid‑table pack even further.

Match Analysis

Vallecano come into this on the back of a mixed run: a solid 1-0 home win over Elche was sandwiched between a 0-3 collapse at Mallorca and a narrow 0-1 defeat away to leaders Barcelona. The underlying numbers, however, are much kinder to them than those results suggest. Over the last five games they’ve averaged 1.8 goals scored and only 0.4 conceded, with an impressive 1.97 expected goals (xG) created and just 0.85 xG allowed. Even in defeat they’ve generally controlled territory, winning the corner battle in all three recent matches (7-6, 9-4, 9-6). Espanol’s recent form is more worrying. A 1-4 loss at Barcelona and a 1-2 home defeat to Getafe bookend a goalless draw at Betis, leaving them with one point from the last nine. Defensively they’ve been fragile: across the last five games they concede 2.4 goals per match on average, from a hefty 2.514 xG against. Going forward, 1.2 goals per game and just 0.898 xG suggest they rely more on moments than sustained pressure. Recent shot counts also tell a story: they were heavily outshot at Barcelona (10-20) and Betis (8-19), and even at home to Getafe they allowed 10 attempts.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Vallecano
Goals in last 5 matches
Espanol
Goals in last 5 matches
The model’s over 2.5 prediction at 56.0% fits reasonably with recent patterns, even if both sides have had some low‑scoring outings. Two of Espanol’s last three games went over 2.5 goals (1-4 vs Barcelona, 1-2 vs Getafe), while all three of Vallecano’s most recent fixtures actually landed under 2.5 (0-3, 1-0, 0-1). The push towards over 2.5 is driven by Vallecano’s strong attacking xG of 1.97 and Espanol’s leaky defence conceding 2.4 goals on average; that mix usually opens the door to chances and goals.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Vallecano
Corners in last 5 matches
Espanol
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The predicted corners total is 9.72, pointing to a game around the 9–10 corner mark. Vallecano’s last three matches produced 13, 13 and 15 total corners respectively, as they consistently racked up more corners than their opponents (7-6, 9-4, 9-6), a sign of a side that attacks with width and sustains pressure at home. Espanol’s games have also been corner‑friendly, with 12, 7 and 21 total corners, including a huge 12-9 count in their favour against Getafe, so this corners prediction is in line with two teams prepared to push on in wide areas.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Vallecano
Shots in last 5 matches
Espanol
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots figure of 26.38 suggests an open contest with both teams getting efforts away. Vallecano’s recent games brought 17, 21 and 8 shots for them, while they allowed 12, 9 and 15, confirming a side involved in reasonably shot‑heavy matches. Espanol have faced big shot volumes away (20 at Barcelona, 19 at Betis) and still managed 15 attempts themselves against Getafe, so the shots prediction aligns with their tendency to concede territory but still pose some threat.

Final Prediction

Vallecano’s edge comes from stronger recent underlying data: more xG created, far fewer chances conceded, and a much tighter defence than Espanol’s porous back line. Espanol’s habit of conceding volume – in both shots and xG – could be decisive if Vallecano impose their usual home pressure. The key factor to watch will be how often Vallecano’s wide play turns territorial dominance into clear chances in and around the box.

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