La Liga 2025-2026: Vallecano vs Levante Prediction - 16 Mar 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Vallecano

Home Team
87%
VS

Levante

Away Team
5%
Draw: 7%
Over 2.5: 51%
Under 2.5: 49%
Goal: 50%
No Goal: 50%
Expected Corners: 10.1
Expected Shots: 26.1

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Barcelona 27 22 1 4 72 26 46 67
2 Real Madrid 27 20 3 4 56 23 33 63
3 Ath Madrid 27 16 6 5 46 25 21 54
4 Villarreal 27 17 3 7 50 32 18 54
5 Betis 27 11 10 6 42 34 8 43
6 Celta 27 10 10 7 37 30 7 40
7 Espanol 27 10 7 10 34 40 -6 37
8 Sociedad 27 9 8 10 40 41 -1 35
9 Getafe 27 10 5 12 23 29 -6 35
10 Betis 27 10 5 12 30 37 -7 35
11 Osasuna 27 9 7 11 32 32 0 34
12 Valencia 27 8 8 11 30 41 -11 32
13 Vallecano 27 7 10 10 27 33 -6 31
14 Sevilla 27 8 7 12 35 42 -7 31
15 Girona 27 7 10 10 28 43 -15 31
16 Alaves 27 7 6 14 25 37 -12 27
17 Elche 27 5 11 11 35 41 -6 26
18 Mallorca 27 6 7 14 31 44 -13 25
19 Levante 27 5 7 15 29 45 -16 22
20 Oviedo 27 3 9 15 17 44 -27 18

Recent Trends

Vallecano D W D D W

  • Last Match: D vs Sevilla (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Oviedo (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Ath Bilbao (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Betis (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Ath Madrid (Goals: 3 - 0)

Levante D W L L L

  • Last Match: D vs Girona (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Alaves (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Barcelona (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Villarreal (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Valencia (Goals: 0 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Vallecano

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.88
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 0.92
# Clean Sheets: 2

Levante

Average Expected Goals (xG): 0.84
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 2.60
# Clean Sheets: 1

Key Prediction Insights

Vallecano are strong favourites here, with an 87.0% probability of a home win against a Levante side stuck in 19th place and fighting the drop, while Vallecano sit 13th and looking up the table rather than down. The model leans towards goals too, with an over 2.5 prediction at 51.0%, suggesting a fairly open game despite the gulf in form. A home victory with at least three goals in total is the most likely script.

Match Analysis

Vallecano come into this on a steady run: unbeaten in three, with a home win over Oviedo (3-0) sandwiched between solid 1-1 draws against Sevilla away and Athletic Bilbao at home. Those games underline a side that is hard to beat and increasingly productive in attack, with 5 goals scored and only 2 conceded across the last three. Their recent underlying numbers back that up: over the last five matches they average 2.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded, with xG figures of 1.876 for and just 0.924 against, plus two clean sheets. That’s the profile of a mid-table side trending upwards. Levante’s recent form is far less convincing. They’ve taken four points from their last three – a 2-0 home win over Alavés and a 1-1 draw with Girona – but those results sit alongside a sobering 3-0 defeat away at Barcelona. More worrying is the balance of chances: in those last three they’ve often been out-shot, and across the last five matches they average only 1.0 goal scored while conceding 2.2. Their xG tells the same story: just 0.84 expected goals for per game against a hefty 2.596 expected against, with only one clean sheet in that span. That defensive vulnerability against a confident Vallecano attack explains the lopsided win probabilities.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Vallecano
Goals in last 5 matches
Levante
Goals in last 5 matches
The over 2.5 prediction carries a narrow edge at 51.0%, and the recent scorelines just about support that call. Two of Vallecano’s last three matches finished under 2.5 (1-1 vs Sevilla, 1-1 vs Athletic), but the 3-0 win over Oviedo shows their capacity to open games up, particularly at home. Levante have mirrored that pattern: two matches under 2.5 (2-0 vs Alavés, 1-1 vs Girona) and one over 2.5 in the 3-0 loss at Barcelona. With Vallecano averaging 2.0 scored and 1.0 conceded on strong attacking xG, and Levante conceding 2.2 per game on very poor defensive xG, three goals or more feels a realistic ceiling to aim for rather than an under 2.5 scenario.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Vallecano
Corners in last 5 matches
Levante
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction points to around 10.07 total corners, which fits with how both sides have been playing. Vallecano’s last three have produced 8, 14 and 9 corners respectively, with a particularly dominant 12-2 count at home against Oviedo, suggesting a team that pushes high and forces defensive actions. Levante’s recent matches have yielded 5, 16 and 19 corners, with double figures in each of their last two outings (10-6 vs Alavés, 6-13 at Barcelona). With both teams allowing plenty of attacks against them and Vallecano likely to control territory, a total around 10 predicted corners is consistent with recent trends.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Vallecano
Shots in last 5 matches
Levante
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots figure of 26.06 for the match looks well aligned with recent shot volumes. Vallecano have taken 9, 19 and 15 shots in their last three (43 in total), while facing 11, 8 and 8 (27 faced), showing a team that regularly gets efforts away, especially at home. Levante have been involved in shot-heavy contests: 14 and 22 attempts in their two recent home games, and 5 away at Barcelona, while facing 22, 17 and 22 shots themselves. That constant pressure on their goal matches their high xG conceded, and supports a shots prediction in the mid-20s, with Vallecano likely to take the lion’s share.

Final Prediction

Vallecano’s superior league position, stronger recent form, and far better attacking and defensive metrics give them a clear edge over a Levante side leaking chances and trapped in the relegation zone. If the hosts impose their high-tempo, front-foot approach, Levante’s fragile back line could again be exposed. The key factor to watch will be how often Vallecano can turn sustained pressure into shots inside the box – if they hit their recent xG levels, the home win probability looks justified.

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