La Liga 2025-2026: Vallecano vs Oviedo Prediction - 4 Mar 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Vallecano

Home Team
81%
VS

Oviedo

Away Team
8%
Draw: 11%
Over 2.5: 53%
Under 2.5: 47%
Goal: 53%
No Goal: 47%
Expected Corners: 10.0
Expected Shots: 24.9

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Barcelona 26 21 1 4 71 26 45 64
2 Real Madrid 26 19 3 4 54 22 32 60
3 Ath Madrid 26 15 6 5 43 23 20 51
4 Villarreal 26 16 3 7 48 31 17 51
5 Betis 26 11 10 5 42 32 10 43
6 Celta 26 10 10 6 36 28 8 40
7 Espanol 26 10 6 10 33 39 -6 36
8 Sociedad 26 9 8 9 38 38 0 35
9 Betis 26 10 5 11 30 36 -6 35
10 Osasuna 26 9 6 11 30 30 0 33
11 Getafe 26 9 5 12 21 29 -8 32
12 Sevilla 26 8 6 12 34 41 -7 30
13 Girona 26 7 9 10 27 42 -15 30
14 Valencia 26 7 8 11 27 39 -12 29
15 Vallecano 25 6 9 10 23 32 -9 27
16 Alaves 26 7 6 13 23 34 -11 27
17 Elche 26 5 11 10 34 39 -5 26
18 Mallorca 26 6 6 14 29 42 -13 24
19 Levante 26 5 6 15 28 44 -16 21
20 Oviedo 25 3 8 14 16 40 -24 17

Recent Trends

Vallecano D D W L L

  • Last Match: D vs Ath Bilbao (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Betis (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Ath Madrid (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Real Madrid (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Osasuna (Goals: 1 - 3)

Oviedo L D L W L

  • Last Match: L vs Ath Madrid (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Sociedad (Goals: 3 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Ath Bilbao (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Girona (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Barcelona (Goals: 0 - 3)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Vallecano

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.50
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 0.85
# Clean Sheets: 1

Oviedo

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.45
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 2.26
# Clean Sheets: 1

Key Prediction Insights

Vallecano are strong favourites here, with an 81.0% probability of taking all three points against bottom‑placed Oviedo, who have just an 8.0% chance of an upset and sit 20th in La Liga. The model leans towards a lively contest, backing over 2.5 goals with a 53.0% probability. Vallecano, currently 15th but with breathing space above the drop, face an Oviedo side desperate for points in the relegation fight.

Match Analysis

Vallecano come into this one on a three‑match unbeaten run, drawing 1-1 with Athletic Bilbao and Betis before an eye‑catching 3-0 home win over Atlético Madrid. They’ve been solid at both ends: 1.6 goals scored on average over the last five games and just 1.2 conceded, backed up by encouraging underlying numbers of 1.498 expected goals for and only 0.854 expected goals against. That mix of improving attack and tightening defence, plus a clean sheet in the statement win over Atlético, explains why the home side are rated so highly. Oviedo’s recent form tells a very different story. They’ve taken just one point from their last three matches: a narrow 0-1 home defeat to Atlético, a wild 3-3 draw away at Sociedad, and a 1-2 home loss to Athletic Bilbao. The worrying trend is at the back – they are conceding an average of 2.8 goals over their last five outings, with 2.26 expected goals against, far higher than Vallecano’s defensive figure. While they’re not toothless going forward (1.2 goals and 1.448 xG on average), the defensive frailty and -24 goal difference overall leave them vulnerable, especially away to a team in better form.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Vallecano
Goals in last 5 matches
Oviedo
Goals in last 5 matches
The over 2.5 prediction is favoured at 53.0%, and the recent scorelines support a leaning towards goals. Two of Oviedo’s last three matches have gone over 2.5 goals (3-3 vs Sociedad, 1-2 vs Athletic), while Vallecano have seen one of their last three go over (3-0 vs Atlético) and two finish at exactly two goals. With Vallecano averaging 1.6 scored and 1.2 conceded, and Oviedo at 1.2 scored but a very high 2.8 conceded – backed by higher attacking and defensive xG figures for both – the balance tips slightly towards another game clearing the 2.5 line rather than an under 2.5 grind.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Vallecano
Corners in last 5 matches
Oviedo
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction sits at an expected total of 10.02, which fits the pattern of both sides’ recent matches. Vallecano’s last three have seen 9, 8 and 12 corners respectively, while Oviedo’s have produced 11, 13 and 5, underlining that their games often open up in wide areas. With Vallecano likely to press high at home and Oviedo forced to chase points from a lowly position, repeated attacks and wide deliveries should keep the predicted corners figure in the double‑digit range.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Vallecano
Shots in last 5 matches
Oviedo
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots total is 24.86, a realistic number given recent volumes for both teams. Vallecano’s last three games featured 23, 26 and 22 shots combined, while Oviedo’s produced 28, 29 and 20, suggesting a similar profile for this clash. That shots prediction also lines up with the xG data: both sides generate around 1.4–1.5 expected goals in attack, which typically requires a steady flow of attempts from in and around the box.

Final Prediction

Vallecano’s edge comes from their balance: improving form, stronger defensive metrics, and home advantage against a side leaking goals and stranded in 20th. Oviedo’s attacking spirit means they can threaten, but their porous back line may not withstand sustained pressure. A key factor to watch will be how early Vallecano impose themselves; if they score first, the game could quickly tilt towards the high‑scoring script the numbers are pointing to.

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