La Liga 2025-2026: Vallecano vs Sociedad Prediction - 26 Apr 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Vallecano

Home Team
46%
VS

Sociedad

Away Team
29%
Draw: 24%
Over 2.5: 49%
Under 2.5: 51%
Goal: 54%
No Goal: 46%
Expected Corners: 10.0
Expected Shots: 26.5
Expected Spread: +0.2

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Barcelona 32 27 1 4 85 30 55 82
2 Real Madrid 32 23 4 5 67 30 37 73
3 Villarreal 32 19 5 8 57 37 20 62
4 Ath Madrid 32 17 6 9 53 35 18 57
5 Betis 32 12 13 7 48 40 8 49
6 Getafe 32 13 5 14 28 32 -4 44
7 Celta 32 11 11 10 44 41 3 44
8 Sociedad 32 11 9 12 49 49 0 42
9 Betis 32 12 5 15 34 45 -11 41
10 Osasuna 32 10 9 13 37 39 -2 39
11 Vallecano 32 9 11 12 30 38 -8 38
12 Espanol 32 10 8 14 37 49 -12 38
13 Girona 32 9 11 12 35 48 -13 38
14 Valencia 32 9 9 14 35 47 -12 36
15 Mallorca 32 9 8 15 40 49 -9 35
16 Elche 32 8 11 13 42 49 -7 35
17 Sevilla 32 9 7 16 39 53 -14 34
18 Alaves 32 8 9 15 36 48 -12 33
19 Levante 32 8 8 16 37 50 -13 32
20 Oviedo 32 6 10 16 25 49 -24 28

Recent Trends

Vallecano W L W L D

  • Last Match: W vs Espanol (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Mallorca (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Elche (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Barcelona (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Levante (Goals: 1 - 1)

Sociedad L D W L W

  • Last Match: L vs Getafe (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Alaves (Goals: 3 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Levante (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Villarreal (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Osasuna (Goals: 3 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Vallecano

xG (avg) 1.83
xGA (avg) 1.04
Clean Sheets 2

Sociedad

xG (avg) 1.08
xGA (avg) 2.33
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

Vallecano are marginally favoured at home with a 46.0% chance of victory, compared to Sociedad’s 29.0%, with the draw at 24.0%. The model points toward a Vallecano win and an under 2.5 goals prediction (49.0% for under) in a tight mid-table clash. Sociedad arrive in 8th on 42 points, while Vallecano sit 11th with 38, both hovering just below the European conversation.

Match Analysis

Vallecano’s recent run has been defined by defensive control at home: back-to-back 1-0 wins over Espanyol and Elche, either side of a heavy 3-0 defeat away to Mallorca. Those two victories were built on volume and territory – 17 and 21 shots respectively, plus 6 and 9 corners – suggesting a side that can pen opponents in at Vallecas even if the scorelines stay modest. Their last five games back this up: 1.4 goals scored and only 0.4 conceded on average, with 1.834 expected goals (xG) created and just 1.038 xG allowed. Sociedad, by contrast, have been unpredictable. A wild 3-3 draw with Alavés was sandwiched between a controlled 2-0 win over Levante and a flat 1-0 home defeat to Getafe. They’re scoring 1.2 per game over the last five but conceding 2.2, with their defensive xG against at a worrying 2.328 and only one clean sheet in that span. The numbers paint a team that allows more chances than it creates (1.076 xG for), which is not ideal when travelling to a side that has been efficient and organised on its own pitch.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Vallecano
Goals in last 5 matches
Sociedad
Goals in last 5 matches
The model leans slightly to under 2.5 with a 49.0% probability, and the recent scores lend weight to that under 2.5 call. Two of Vallecano’s last three league games finished 1-0, with only the 0-3 at Mallorca going over 2.5 goals. Sociedad have gone the other way – two of their last three (3-3 v Alavés, 2-0 v Levante) were over 2.5, but their latest outing was a tight 0-1 loss. With Vallecano’s low concession rate (0.4 per game) and strong xG against, alongside Sociedad’s modest 1.076 xG for, the over 2.5 prediction is less convincing than another low-scoring contest.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Vallecano
Corners in last 5 matches
Sociedad
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total corners for this match is 10.02, a figure supported by both sides’ recent numbers. Vallecano’s last three have produced 11, 13 and 13 corners respectively, while Sociedad’s home games in that stretch generated 9, 14 and 17. This corners prediction fits two teams that rely on sustained pressure and wide play to create chances, even if the final scoreline often stays narrow.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Vallecano
Shots in last 5 matches
Sociedad
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots for this match sit at 26.47, a reasonable shots prediction given recent trends. Vallecano have attempted 17, 17 and 21 shots in their last three, while allowing 15, 12 and 9, pointing to a high-volume approach at home. Sociedad’s last three show 13, 12 and 18 attempts going forward; when combined with both sides’ xG profiles, that expected shots figure suggests a game with plenty of efforts but not necessarily a flood of goals.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Vallecano wins by X goals. Negative = Sociedad wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Vallecano vs Sociedad with expected spread of +0.2
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Vallecano vs Sociedad
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected spread is Vallecano -0.24, a slight edge to the home side in the goal spread prediction. Over the last three matches, Vallecano have a combined goal difference of -1 (two 1-0 wins and a 0-3 loss), while Sociedad sit at +1 (3-3, 2-0, 0-1). The expected spread aligns with the 46.0% home-win probability and Vallecano’s stronger recent defensive metrics, hinting at a narrow home success rather than a dominant scoreline.

Final Prediction

Vallecano’s edge comes from their defensive stability at home and more favourable recent xG numbers at both ends of the pitch. Sociedad’s leaky defence and higher xG conceded tilt the balance slightly toward the hosts, even if the margins are fine. Key to watch will be whether Vallecano can turn their territorial dominance and volume of shots into an early goal, forcing Sociedad to open up and chase the game.

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