La Liga 2025-2026: Vallecano vs Villarreal Prediction - 17 May 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Vallecano

Home Team
30%
VS

Villarreal

Away Team
45%
Draw: 24%
Over 2.5: 56%
Under 2.5: 44%
Goal: 53%
No Goal: 47%
Expected Corners: 9.6
Expected Shots: 25.9
Expected Spread: -0.1

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Barcelona 36 30 1 5 91 32 59 91
2 Real Madrid 36 25 5 6 72 33 39 80
3 Villarreal 36 21 6 9 67 43 24 69
4 Ath Madrid 36 20 6 10 60 39 21 66
5 Betis 36 14 15 7 56 44 12 57
6 Celta 36 13 11 12 51 47 4 50
7 Getafe 36 14 6 16 31 37 -6 48
8 Sociedad 36 11 12 13 55 56 -1 45
9 Betis 36 13 5 18 40 53 -13 44
10 Vallecano 36 10 14 12 37 43 -6 44
11 Valencia 36 11 10 15 39 51 -12 43
12 Sevilla 36 12 7 17 46 58 -12 43
13 Osasuna 36 11 9 16 43 47 -4 42
14 Espanol 36 11 9 16 40 53 -13 42
15 Girona 36 9 13 14 38 53 -15 40
16 Alaves 36 10 10 16 42 54 -12 40
17 Elche 36 9 12 15 47 56 -9 39
18 Mallorca 36 10 9 17 44 55 -11 39
19 Levante 36 10 9 17 44 59 -15 39
20 Oviedo 36 6 11 19 26 56 -30 29

Recent Trends

Vallecano D D W D W

  • Last Match: D vs Valencia (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Girona (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Getafe (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Sociedad (Goals: 3 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Espanol (Goals: 1 - 0)

Villarreal L D W W D

  • Last Match: L vs Sevilla (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Mallorca (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Levante (Goals: 5 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Celta (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Oviedo (Goals: 1 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Vallecano

xG (avg) 2.05
xGA (avg) 1.46
Clean Sheets 2

Villarreal

xG (avg) 1.42
xGA (avg) 1.27
Clean Sheets 0

Key Prediction Insights

Villarreal are slight favourites here, with a 45.0% chance of taking all three points compared to Vallecano’s 30.0%, and the expected goal spread of -0.13 tilts the balance narrowly towards the visitors. The over 2.5 prediction is also in play, with a 56.0% probability of at least three goals in a clash between 3rd‑placed Villarreal (69 points) and mid‑table Vallecano in 10th (44 points). A draw holds a 24.0% chance but sits behind the away win in likelihood.

Match Analysis

Vallecano come into this on a three‑match unbeaten run, drawing 1-1 at Valencia and 1-1 at home to Girona before a composed 2-0 away win at Getafe. They’ve been tight at the back lately, conceding just two goals across those three games, and their last five matches show an average of 1.4 scored and 1.0 conceded, with two clean sheets. The underlying numbers are even more positive: 2.046 expected goals (xG) created on average and 1.456 xG conceded suggest they’re fashioning good chances and limiting opponents fairly well. Villarreal’s recent form has been more volatile: a heavy 5-1 home win over Levante, a 1-1 draw away at Mallorca and then a 3-2 home defeat to Sevilla. That sequence underlines both their attacking threat and their defensive vulnerability, especially with no clean sheets in their last five and an average of 1.0 goal conceded per game. Their xG profile – 1.420 created and 1.266 conceded on average over the last five – points to a side that generally produces enough going forward but doesn’t always shut the door at the other end, which should make for an open contest against Vallecano’s improving attack.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Vallecano
Goals in last 5 matches
Villarreal
Goals in last 5 matches
The over 2.5 prediction at 56.0% edges this market towards goals rather than a cagey affair. Two of Villarreal’s last three games have cleared the 2.5 line (5-1 vs Levante, 2-3 vs Sevilla), while all three of Vallecano’s most recent fixtures have finished under 2.5 (2, 2 and 2 total goals). Even so, Vallecano’s average of 1.4 scored and 1.0 conceded, coupled with their 2.046 xG for and Villarreal’s 1.420 xG for, suggests there is enough attacking intent on both sides for this not to stay low‑scoring for long.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Vallecano
Corners in last 5 matches
Villarreal
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The model’s corners prediction points to around 9.63 total corners, which fits the recent patterns of these two teams. Vallecano’s last three produced 6, 14 and 5 corners respectively, showing they can be involved in both low and high corner counts depending on game state. Villarreal’s last three brought 10, 9 and 10 corners, reflecting a side that attacks consistently and concedes territory as well; that balance supports a predicted corners total close to 10, with both teams willing to push on.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Vallecano
Shots in last 5 matches
Villarreal
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots figure of 25.9 suggests a reasonably busy afternoon for both goalkeepers. Vallecano’s last three matches saw combined shot totals of 18, 27 and 23, while Villarreal’s games produced 19, 25 and 32 efforts, underlining the likelihood of a match where chances are created at both ends. That shots prediction lines up neatly with the xG trends: both teams’ attacking metrics point to regular shooting opportunities rather than a slow, tactical stalemate.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Vallecano wins by X goals. Negative = Villarreal wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Vallecano vs Villarreal with expected spread of -0.1
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Vallecano vs Villarreal
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The goal spread prediction of -0.13 indicates only a marginal edge for Villarreal, reflecting their 45.0% win probability against Vallecano’s 30.0%. Recent scorelines back up the idea of a tight contest: Vallecano have a +2 goal difference over their last three (4 scored, 2 conceded), while Villarreal sit at +1 (8 scored, 7 conceded) but with more volatility in results. With both sides averaging just 1.0 goal conceded over their last five games, the expected spread is small, leaning ever so slightly towards the higher‑placed, more potent Villarreal attack.

Final Prediction

Villarreal’s superior league position, stronger attacking output over the season and marginal statistical edge in the probabilities give them the slight advantage going into this one. Vallecano’s recent solidity and impressive xG numbers, especially at home, mean they are far from outmatched, and the result could hinge on who converts their chances more ruthlessly. A key factor to watch will be how Vallecano’s organized defence copes with Villarreal’s capacity to generate flurries of shots and high‑scoring games.

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