La Liga 2025-2026: Villarreal vs Ath Madrid Prediction - 24 May 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Villarreal

Home Team
43%
VS

Ath Madrid

Away Team
33%
Draw: 25%
Over 2.5: 55%
Under 2.5: 45%
Goal: 61%
No Goal: 39%
Expected Corners: 9.8
Expected Shots: 25.2
Expected Spread: +0.5

Also available in Claude. Query these predictions in plain language — our native connector lets Claude call our models on demand, no code.

Set it up

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Barcelona 37 31 1 5 94 33 61 94
2 Real Madrid 37 26 5 6 73 33 40 83
3 Villarreal 37 21 6 10 67 45 22 69
4 Ath Madrid 37 21 6 10 61 39 22 69
5 Betis 37 14 15 8 57 47 10 57
6 Celta 37 13 12 12 52 48 4 51
7 Getafe 37 14 6 17 31 38 -7 48
8 Vallecano 37 11 14 12 39 43 -4 47
9 Valencia 37 12 10 15 43 54 -11 46
10 Sociedad 37 11 12 14 58 60 -2 45
11 Espanol 37 12 9 16 42 54 -12 45
12 Betis 37 13 6 18 41 54 -13 45
13 Sevilla 37 12 7 18 46 59 -13 43
14 Alaves 37 11 10 16 43 54 -11 43
15 Levante 37 11 9 17 46 59 -13 42
16 Osasuna 37 11 9 17 44 49 -5 42
17 Elche 37 10 12 15 48 56 -8 42
18 Girona 37 9 13 15 38 54 -16 40
19 Mallorca 37 10 9 18 44 57 -13 39
20 Oviedo 37 6 11 20 26 57 -31 29

Recent Trends

Villarreal L L D W W

  • Last Match: L vs Vallecano (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Sevilla (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Mallorca (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Levante (Goals: 5 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Celta (Goals: 2 - 1)

Ath Madrid W W L W W

  • Last Match: W vs Girona (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Osasuna (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Celta (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Valencia (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Ath Bilbao (Goals: 3 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Villarreal

xG (avg) 2.30
xGA (avg) 1.26
Clean Sheets 0

Ath Madrid

xG (avg) 1.35
xGA (avg) 2.29
Clean Sheets 2

Key Prediction Insights

Villarreal are slight favourites here, with a 43.0% chance of taking all three points compared to Atlético Madrid’s 33.0%, and a 25.0% probability of a draw. The model leans towards a home win and an over 2.5 prediction (55.0% for over), suggesting a game with chances at both ends. Level on 69 points, Villarreal and Atlético sit 3rd and 4th respectively, locked in a direct fight for a top‑three finish and Champions League seeding.

Match Analysis

Villarreal come into this with wobbling form but strong attacking numbers. They’ve taken just one point from their last three games (L-L-D), losing 0-2 at Vallecano and 2-3 at home to Sevilla before drawing 1-1 away at Mallorca. Despite those results, Villarreal’s last five matches show them averaging 2.8 goals scored and 2.302 expected goals per game, but with 1.4 conceded on average and no clean sheets in that stretch, they have been anything but secure at the back. Atlético Madrid, meanwhile, have been far more pragmatic but just as volatile in results. They’ve won tight contests against Girona (1-0) and Osasuna (2-1), either side of a highly frustrating 0-1 home defeat to Celta in a match they dominated in shots and corners. Over their last five, Atlético average 1.8 goals scored and 1.8 conceded, with an xG for of 1.348 and a notably high 2.29 xG against, underlining how often they allow opponents good chances despite two recent clean sheets. Villarreal’s superior attacking output and home advantage are what edge the balance towards the hosts.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Villarreal
Goals in last 5 matches
Ath Madrid
Goals in last 5 matches
The over 2.5 prediction is favoured at 55.0%, and the recent trends support a game that can open up. Two of Villarreal’s last three league matches have gone over 2.5 goals (0-2, 2-3, 1-1), while Atlético have seen one over (2-1) and two unders (1-0, 0-1) in their last three. With Villarreal averaging 2.8 scored and 1.4 conceded, and Atlético at 1.8 scored and 1.8 conceded across their last five, coupled with xG figures of 2.302 for and 1.256 against for the hosts and 1.348 for and 2.29 against for the visitors, there is enough attacking quality and defensive vulnerability to back goals rather than an under 2.5 scenario.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Villarreal
Corners in last 5 matches
Ath Madrid
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total corners for this match is 9.75, pointing to a game with a steady but not extreme flow of attacking phases. Villarreal’s last three have produced 10, 10 and 9 corners respectively, while Atlético’s have seen 17, 12 and 10, suggesting both sides regularly generate and concede set-piece situations. This corners prediction aligns with two teams who like to get into wide areas and cross, especially Atlético’s volume-heavy approach in recent outings.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Villarreal
Shots in last 5 matches
Ath Madrid
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total shots stands at 25.22, indicating an open contest without becoming a pure shootout. Atlético’s recent games have been particularly shot-heavy – 17-25, 5-23 and 20-3 – while Villarreal’s have been more modest but still competitive (11-15, 6-13, 7-18). The shots prediction matches the xG patterns: Villarreal’s 2.302 xG per game and Atlético’s 1.348 expect both attacks to create a fair number of openings.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Villarreal wins by X goals. Negative = Ath Madrid wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Villarreal vs Ath Madrid with expected spread of +0.5
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Villarreal vs Ath Madrid
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The goal spread prediction is Villarreal -0.5, meaning the home side are expected to edge it by a single goal. Villarreal’s last three matches show narrow margins (0-2, 2-3, 1-1), while Atlético’s have all been decided by one goal (1-0, 2-1, 0-1), reinforcing the idea of a tight contest. With the home win probability at 43.0% and both teams sharing the same goal difference of +22, the expected spread reflects Villarreal’s stronger attacking metrics and home advantage just tipping the scales.

Final Prediction

Villarreal’s superior recent attacking output, combined with Atlético’s tendency to concede chances, gives the hosts a slight but meaningful edge in what should be a finely balanced clash. With both clubs level on points and chasing Champions League positioning, the key factor to watch will be whether Atlético’s defence can withstand Villarreal’s sustained pressure or whether the Yellow Submarine’s own fragile back line ends up deciding the night.

Get Daily Football Predictions

Enjoyed this analysis? Subscribe to our Telegram channel and receive daily AI-driven football predictions directly on your phone.

Join Our Telegram Channel