La Liga 2025-2026: Villarreal vs Celta Prediction - 26 Apr 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Villarreal

Home Team
63%
VS

Celta

Away Team
18%
Draw: 19%
Over 2.5: 55%
Under 2.5: 45%
Goal: 54%
No Goal: 46%
Expected Corners: 9.1
Expected Shots: 23.9
Expected Spread: +0.6

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Barcelona 32 27 1 4 85 30 55 82
2 Real Madrid 32 23 4 5 67 30 37 73
3 Villarreal 32 19 5 8 57 37 20 62
4 Ath Madrid 32 17 6 9 53 35 18 57
5 Betis 32 12 13 7 48 40 8 49
6 Getafe 32 13 5 14 28 32 -4 44
7 Celta 32 11 11 10 44 41 3 44
8 Sociedad 32 11 9 12 49 49 0 42
9 Betis 32 12 5 15 34 45 -11 41
10 Osasuna 32 10 9 13 37 39 -2 39
11 Vallecano 32 9 11 12 30 38 -8 38
12 Espanol 32 10 8 14 37 49 -12 38
13 Girona 32 9 11 12 35 48 -13 38
14 Valencia 32 9 9 14 35 47 -12 36
15 Mallorca 32 9 8 15 40 49 -9 35
16 Elche 32 8 11 13 42 49 -7 35
17 Sevilla 32 9 7 16 39 53 -14 34
18 Alaves 32 8 9 15 36 48 -12 33
19 Levante 32 8 8 16 37 50 -13 32
20 Oviedo 32 6 10 16 25 49 -24 28

Recent Trends

Villarreal D W L W D

  • Last Match: D vs Oviedo (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Ath Bilbao (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Girona (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Sociedad (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Alaves (Goals: 1 - 1)

Celta L L W L D

  • Last Match: L vs Barcelona (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Oviedo (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Valencia (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Alaves (Goals: 3 - 4)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Betis (Goals: 1 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Villarreal

xG (avg) 2.11
xGA (avg) 1.36
Clean Sheets 0

Celta

xG (avg) 1.34
xGA (avg) 1.37
Clean Sheets 0

Key Prediction Insights

Villarreal are clear favourites at home, with a 63.0% chance of taking all three points against Celta, who are given just an 18.0% chance, with the draw at 19.0%. The model points firmly to a home win and an attacking game, backing over 2.5 goals at 55.0% probability. In the table, Villarreal are flying in 3rd on 62 points, while Celta sit 7th on 44, still in the European mix but some way off the Champions League places.

Match Analysis

Villarreal come into this one from a tricky run of three straight away games: a 1-1 draw at bottom side Oviedo, a hard-fought 2-1 win at Athletic Bilbao, and a narrow 0-1 defeat at Girona. Those results underline a team that always carries threat but doesn’t shut games down – seven goals scored and conceded across those three, with no clean sheet. The underlying numbers back that up: over the last five matches they’re averaging 2.2 goals scored and 1.2 conceded, with xG of 2.108 for and 1.356 against, showing sustained attacking production even when the finishing isn’t perfect. Celta’s recent form is more volatile. They pushed leaders Barcelona but lost 0-1 away, were surprisingly beaten 0-3 at home by Oviedo, then reacted with a wild 3-2 away win at Valencia. That mix of a heavy home defeat and a high-scoring away victory fits their broader profile: 1.6 goals scored and 1.4 conceded on average over the last five, with xG figures of 1.338 for and 1.374 against. Like Villarreal, they’ve not managed a single clean sheet in that period, which is likely to matter a lot here.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Villarreal
Goals in last 5 matches
Celta
Goals in last 5 matches
The over 2.5 prediction is favoured at 55.0%, and the styles of both sides support it. Two of Villarreal’s last three games finished under 2.5 (1-1, 0-1) and one over (2-1), but their five-game averages of 2.2 scored and 1.2 conceded, plus an attacking xG of 2.108, suggest they’re consistently creating enough chances for bigger scorelines. Celta have gone over 2.5 goals in two of their last three (3-0 loss, 3-2 win) and under once (0-1), and with 1.6 scored and 1.4 conceded on average, plus xG against of 1.374, another open game looks more likely than a cagey under 2.5.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Villarreal
Corners in last 5 matches
Celta
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The predicted corners total is 9.13, pointing to a moderate corners prediction rather than an extreme count. Villarreal’s last three have produced wildly one-sided corner counts against them – 0-7 vs Oviedo, 3-15 vs Athletic Bilbao, 4-7 vs Girona – which hints at them allowing territory but remaining efficient in attack. Celta’s recent outings show more balance (3-5 at Barcelona, 4-1 vs Oviedo, 0-6 at Valencia), so a back-and-forth contest should get both sides into wide areas enough to get close to that expected corners figure.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Villarreal
Shots in last 5 matches
Celta
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The model expects 23.93 total attempts, a shots prediction that fits the recent trends. Villarreal’s last three matches have seen them take 7, 12 and 9 shots while facing 16, 18 and 10 – usually being out-shot but still creating quality chances, in line with their strong xG of 2.108. Celta’s last three brought 6, 9 and 9 shots of their own, conceding 10, 8 and 13, so the expected shots total in the mid-20s is consistent with two teams that allow efforts but also have enough attacking edge to test both goalkeepers.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Villarreal wins by X goals. Negative = Celta wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Villarreal vs Celta with expected spread of +0.6
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Villarreal vs Celta
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The goal spread prediction stands at +0.6 for Villarreal, meaning the home side are expected to win by around a single goal on average. Over their last three, Villarreal’s goal differences have been 0 (1-1), +1 (2-1) and -1 (0-1), showing tight games but with enough quality to edge opponents, which fits that expected spread. Celta’s recent goal differences – -1, -3, then +1 – underline their inconsistency and defensive fragility, which, combined with the 63.0% home-win likelihood and Villarreal’s stronger attacking metrics, explains the model’s tilt towards a narrow home victory.

Final Prediction

Villarreal’s superior league position, more reliable attacking output, and home advantage give them a clear edge over an unpredictable Celta side that has struggled for defensive stability. With neither team keeping clean sheets in their last five games, the key storyline should be how often Villarreal can exploit Celta’s back line – and whether Celta’s own forward threat is enough to turn what looks like a likely home win into a genuine shoot-out.

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