La Liga 2025-2026: Villarreal vs Elche Prediction - 8 Mar 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Villarreal

Home Team
78%
VS

Elche

Away Team
10%
Draw: 12%
Over 2.5: 53%
Under 2.5: 47%
Goal: 56%
No Goal: 44%
Expected Corners: 8.9
Expected Shots: 24.6

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Barcelona 26 21 1 4 71 26 45 64
2 Real Madrid 26 19 3 4 54 22 32 60
3 Ath Madrid 26 15 6 5 43 23 20 51
4 Villarreal 26 16 3 7 48 31 17 51
5 Betis 26 11 10 5 42 32 10 43
6 Celta 26 10 10 6 36 28 8 40
7 Espanol 26 10 6 10 33 39 -6 36
8 Sociedad 26 9 8 9 38 38 0 35
9 Betis 26 10 5 11 30 36 -6 35
10 Osasuna 26 9 6 11 30 30 0 33
11 Getafe 26 9 5 12 21 29 -8 32
12 Vallecano 26 7 9 10 26 32 -6 30
13 Sevilla 26 8 6 12 34 41 -7 30
14 Girona 26 7 9 10 27 42 -15 30
15 Valencia 26 7 8 11 27 39 -12 29
16 Alaves 26 7 6 13 23 34 -11 27
17 Elche 26 5 11 10 34 39 -5 26
18 Mallorca 26 6 6 14 29 42 -13 24
19 Levante 26 5 6 15 28 44 -16 21
20 Oviedo 26 3 8 15 16 43 -27 17

Recent Trends

Villarreal L W W L W

  • Last Match: L vs Barcelona (Goals: 1 - 4)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Valencia (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Levante (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Getafe (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Espanol (Goals: 4 - 1)

Elche D L D L L

  • Last Match: D vs Espanol (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Ath Bilbao (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Osasuna (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Sociedad (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Barcelona (Goals: 1 - 3)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Villarreal

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.68
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.68
# Clean Sheets: 1

Elche

Average Expected Goals (xG): 0.61
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 2.60
# Clean Sheets: 1

Key Prediction Insights

Villarreal are strong favourites here, with a 78.0% chance of victory against an Elche side given just a 10.0% shot at an upset, and a 12.0% probability of a draw. The model points to a home win and an over 2.5 prediction, with goals expected to flow at La Cerámica. In the table, Villarreal sit 4th on 51 points and firmly in the Champions League race, while Elche are 17th on 26 points and right on the edge of the relegation battle.

Match Analysis

Villarreal come in with two wins from their last three league outings: a solid 2-1 home victory over Valencia and a tight 1-0 away win at Levante, only blemished by a 4-1 defeat at Barcelona. Across those games they’ve shown both resilience and cutting edge, scoring four and conceding five, but crucially taking six points from nine to keep pace with the sides above them. Their recent averages back that up: 1.8 goals scored and 1.4 conceded over the last five matches, with xG figures (1.682 for, 1.676 against) suggesting they generally create enough and are involved in open contests. Elche’s recent form is more fragile: two draws and a defeat in their last three. A 2-2 home draw with Espanyol and a goalless stalemate with Osasuna were split by a 2-1 loss away to Athletic Bilbao. They’ve been competitive on the scoreboard, but the underlying numbers are worrying: 1.2 goals scored and 2.4 conceded on average in their last five, with a meagre 0.61 xG for and a hefty 2.602 xG against. That gap underlines why they are hovering just above the drop zone and why a visit to in-form Villarreal looks a daunting assignment.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Villarreal
Goals in last 5 matches
Elche
Goals in last 5 matches
The model leans towards an over 2.5 prediction with a 53.0% probability, expecting the game to produce at least three goals. Two of Villarreal’s last three matches have gone over 2.5 goals (4-1 vs Barcelona, 2-1 vs Valencia), with only the 1-0 at Levante landing under. Elche mirror that pattern: over 2.5 in the 2-2 draw with Espanyol and the 2-1 defeat at Athletic, under 2.5 in the 0-0 with Osasuna. With Villarreal averaging 1.8 scored and Elche 2.4 conceded recently – and Elche’s xG against at a worrying 2.602 – the balance tilts towards another high-scoring afternoon.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Villarreal
Corners in last 5 matches
Elche
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction points to a moderate tally, with 8.88 expected total corners in this match. Villarreal’s last three have produced corner totals of 5, 9 and 5, reflecting a side that attacks but doesn’t rely solely on wide bombardment. Elche’s games have been more erratic: 4 corners against Espanyol, just 5 at Athletic, but a remarkable 13 in the 0-0 with Osasuna as they piled on pressure. Taken together, the predicted corners figure suggests a match with steady attacking phases from both teams rather than constant end-to-end waves.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Villarreal
Shots in last 5 matches
Elche
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The shots prediction sits at 24.63 expected shots in total, indicating a reasonably busy afternoon for both goalkeepers. Villarreal’s last three outings featured 6, 12 and 15 attempts of their own, while facing 19, 8 and 16, showing they’re involved in shot-heavy contests, especially away from home. Elche have fired 17, 2 and 17 shots in their last three, but have also allowed 9, 18 and 6, aligning with their poor defensive xG numbers and supporting the idea that Villarreal will generate enough chances to justify those expected shots.

Final Prediction

Villarreal’s superior league position, stronger recent form and far healthier attacking metrics give them a clear edge over an Elche side struggling to keep opponents at bay. Elche’s high xG conceded and 2.4 goals shipped on average in recent weeks are particularly alarming ahead of a trip to a top-four contender. The key factor to watch will be how quickly Villarreal can impose their attacking rhythm; if they start fast, Elche may find themselves chasing a game they are statistically unlikely to control.

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