La Liga 2025-2026: Villarreal vs Levante Prediction - 2 May 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Villarreal

Home Team
73%
VS

Levante

Away Team
13%
Draw: 14%
Over 2.5: 57%
Under 2.5: 43%
Goal: 58%
No Goal: 42%
Expected Corners: 9.6
Expected Shots: 25.0
Expected Spread: +1.0

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Barcelona 33 28 1 4 87 30 57 85
2 Real Madrid 33 23 5 5 68 31 37 74
3 Villarreal 33 20 5 8 59 38 21 65
4 Ath Madrid 33 18 6 9 56 37 19 60
5 Betis 33 12 14 7 49 41 8 50
6 Getafe 33 13 5 15 28 34 -6 44
7 Celta 33 11 11 11 45 43 2 44
8 Sociedad 33 11 10 12 52 52 0 43
9 Osasuna 33 11 9 13 39 40 -1 42
10 Betis 33 12 5 16 36 48 -12 41
11 Vallecano 33 9 12 12 33 41 -8 39
12 Valencia 33 10 9 14 37 48 -11 39
13 Espanol 33 10 9 14 37 49 -12 39
14 Elche 33 9 11 13 44 50 -6 38
15 Girona 33 9 11 13 36 50 -14 38
16 Alaves 33 9 9 15 38 49 -11 36
17 Mallorca 33 9 8 16 41 51 -10 35
18 Sevilla 33 9 7 17 40 55 -15 34
19 Levante 33 8 9 16 37 50 -13 33
20 Oviedo 33 6 10 17 26 51 -25 28

Recent Trends

Villarreal W D W L W

  • Last Match: W vs Celta (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Oviedo (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Ath Bilbao (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Girona (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Sociedad (Goals: 3 - 1)

Levante D W W L W

  • Last Match: D vs Espanol (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Sevilla (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Getafe (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Sociedad (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Oviedo (Goals: 4 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Villarreal

xG (avg) 2.40
xGA (avg) 1.44
Clean Sheets 0

Levante

xG (avg) 0.88
xGA (avg) 2.50
Clean Sheets 3

Key Prediction Insights

Villarreal are clear favourites at home, with a 73.0% probability of victory against a Levante side given just a 13.0% chance, and a 14.0% likelihood of a draw. The model leans towards an over 2.5 prediction on goals (57.0% for over), expecting an open game tilted towards the hosts. Villarreal sit 3rd in La Liga on 65 points, chasing the Champions League places, while Levante are 19th on 33 points and fighting to avoid the drop.

Match Analysis

Villarreal come into this with momentum: two wins and a draw in their last three, including a 2-1 home win over Celta and a gritty 2-1 success away to Athletic Bilbao. Even in their 1-1 draw at Oviedo, they showed resilience despite being out-shot 16–7 and failing to earn a single corner. Their attacking form is strong: across the last five games they’ve averaged 2.6 goals scored, with 2.4 expected goals, and only 1.0 conceded, even if they haven’t managed a clean sheet in that run. Levante’s recent form is more nuanced. They’ve taken seven points from their last three (two wins and a draw), but all in low-scoring encounters: 1-0 and 2-0 home wins over Getafe and Sevilla, plus a 0-0 away at Espanyol. Over the last five, though, they average just 0.6 goals scored and 0.8779 xG, while conceding 2.0 goals on average with 2.5 xG against. The contrast between their three recent clean sheets and those underlying numbers suggests they will be under significant pressure against a high-powered Villarreal attack.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Villarreal
Goals in last 5 matches
Levante
Goals in last 5 matches
The model backs an over 2.5 prediction at 57.0%, expecting this to be more open than Levante’s recent games. Two of Villarreal’s last three have gone over 2.5 goals (2-1 vs Celta, 2-1 at Athletic Bilbao), with only the 1-1 at Oviedo finishing under. Levante, by contrast, have seen all of their last three finish under 2.5 (0-0, 2-0, 1-0), but their low attacking output and high xG conceded (2.5 on average) point towards them eventually cracking under sustained pressure rather than controlling the tempo.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Villarreal
Corners in last 5 matches
Levante
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total for this match is 9.55 corners, a moderate figure that fits the profiles of these sides. Villarreal’s last three have been corner-heavy overall – 12 vs Celta (7-5), 7 vs Oviedo (0-7) and a huge 18 vs Athletic Bilbao (3-15) – indicating end-to-end phases even when they’re not dominating. Levante, meanwhile, have produced 8, 9 and 8 total corners in their last three, with a particularly aggressive 8-2 count against Getafe. The corners prediction reflects two teams willing to attack wide and sustain pressure, especially the home side.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Villarreal
Shots in last 5 matches
Levante
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The shots prediction stands at 24.98 expected shots in total, underlining an encounter where Villarreal should spend long spells in Levante’s half. Villarreal’s last three have seen 22, 23 and 30 total shots, while Levante’s games have produced 17, 15 and 27. With Villarreal generating 2.4 xG on average in recent weeks and Levante allowing 2.5 xG, the expected shots tally is consistent with a match where the hosts create a high volume of chances and Levante look to counter sporadically.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Villarreal wins by X goals. Negative = Levante wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Villarreal vs Levante with expected spread of +1.0
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Villarreal vs Levante
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The goal spread prediction is an expected spread of +1.03 in favour of Villarreal, meaning the home side are projected to win by roughly a goal. Over their last three, Villarreal are +3 on goal difference (two 2-1 wins and a 1-1 draw), while Levante are +2 (two clean-sheet wins and one 0-0). However, Villarreal’s superior attacking numbers and their 73.0% win probability justify a positive spread despite Levante’s recent defensive results.

Final Prediction

Villarreal’s attacking rhythm, strong xG profile and top‑three position give them a clear edge over a Levante side still struggling to create chances and leaning heavily on defensive resistance. If Levante’s back line can’t replicate their recent clean sheets against this level of opponent, the game is likely to tilt quickly towards the hosts. The key factor to watch will be whether Villarreal’s relentless chance creation can turn early pressure into goals, or whether Levante can drag the match into the kind of low-tempo battle that has kept them alive in the relegation fight.

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