La Liga 2025-2026: Villarreal vs Valencia Prediction - 22 Feb 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Villarreal

Home Team
79%
VS

Valencia

Away Team
9%
Draw: 11%
Over 2.5: 52%
Under 2.5: 48%
Goal: 55%
No Goal: 45%
Expected Corners: 9.6
Expected Shots: 23.3

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Real Madrid 24 19 3 2 53 19 34 60
2 Barcelona 24 19 1 4 64 25 39 58
3 Villarreal 24 15 3 6 45 26 19 48
4 Ath Madrid 24 13 6 5 38 21 17 45
5 Betis 24 11 8 5 39 29 10 41
6 Espanol 24 10 5 9 29 33 -4 35
7 Celta 24 8 10 6 32 27 5 34
8 Sociedad 24 8 7 9 34 35 -1 31
9 Betis 24 9 4 11 27 34 -7 31
10 Osasuna 24 8 6 10 28 28 0 30
11 Getafe 24 8 5 11 20 28 -8 29
12 Girona 24 7 8 9 24 38 -14 29
13 Sevilla 24 7 5 12 31 39 -8 26
14 Alaves 24 7 5 12 21 30 -9 26
15 Valencia 24 6 8 10 25 37 -12 26
16 Elche 24 5 10 9 31 35 -4 25
17 Vallecano 23 6 7 10 21 30 -9 25
18 Mallorca 24 6 6 12 29 39 -10 24
19 Levante 24 4 6 14 26 41 -15 18
20 Oviedo 23 3 7 13 13 36 -23 16

Recent Trends

Villarreal W L W D L

  • Last Match: W vs Levante (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Getafe (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Espanol (Goals: 4 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Osasuna (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Real Madrid (Goals: 0 - 2)

Valencia W L L W W

  • Last Match: W vs Levante (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Real Madrid (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Betis (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Espanol (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Getafe (Goals: 1 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Villarreal

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.37
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.35
# Clean Sheets: 1

Valencia

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.29
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.77
# Clean Sheets: 2

Key Prediction Insights

Villarreal are strong favourites at home with a 79.0% win probability, compared to just 9.0% for Valencia and an 11.0% chance of a draw. The model leans towards a home win and an over 2.5 prediction on goals (52.0% for over), with both sides expected to score. In the current La Liga table, Villarreal sit 3rd on 48 points, while Valencia are down in 15th on 26 points, underlining the gap between the two.

Match Analysis

Villarreal come into this derby in solid form: two wins and one defeat in their last three games. They edged Levante 1-0 away, brushed aside Espanyol 4-1 at home, and only slipped up 2-1 at Getafe. Across their last five, they’re averaging 1.8 goals scored and 1.2 conceded, with xG figures (1.37 for, 1.35 against) showing a relatively balanced but efficient side that tends to take its chances better than it allows the opposition to. Valencia arrive with a more mixed picture: one win and two defeats from their last three. They beat Levante 2-0 away, but lost 2-0 at home to Real Madrid and 2-1 away to Betis despite being competitive in shots and corners. Over their last five, they average 1.2 goals scored and 1.6 conceded, and their expected goals conceded (1.774 per game) suggests they allow more good chances than Villarreal, which is a concern against a top‑three attack.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Villarreal
Goals in last 5 matches
Valencia
Goals in last 5 matches
The over 2.5 prediction is favoured at 52.0%, with the numbers hinting at a game that can open up. Two of Villarreal’s last three matches went over 2.5 goals (3 and 5 total goals), while one of Valencia’s last three did so (their 1-2 loss at Betis), with the other two finishing on exactly two goals. Villarreal’s 1.8 scored vs 1.2 conceded and Valencia’s 1.2 scored vs 1.6 conceded, combined with xG figures on both sides above 1.2 per game, support the idea of at least three goals rather than an under 2.5 outcome.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Villarreal
Corners in last 5 matches
Valencia
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The predicted corners total is 9.6, pointing to a match around the 9–10 corners mark. Villarreal’s recent games saw 5, 7 and 13 corners respectively, while Valencia’s produced 5, 13 and 8, showing both teams can be involved in fluctuating but often healthy corner counts. Given Villarreal’s attacking status near the top of the league and Valencia’s willingness to push on the flanks (as reflected by their corner numbers vs Real Madrid and Betis), the corners prediction of roughly ten seems well aligned with their styles.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Villarreal
Shots in last 5 matches
Valencia
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots total is 23.33, suggesting an open contest with both sides getting efforts away. Villarreal’s last three games have had 31, 13 and 19 total shots, while Valencia’s produced 14, 18 and 29, all fitting into that low‑to‑high 20s range overall. With both teams’ xG figures above 1.2 per match, this shots prediction matches the idea of sustained attacking phases rather than a cagey, low‑event encounter.

Final Prediction

Villarreal’s superior league position, stronger recent results and more efficient attack give them a clear edge at home. Valencia’s defensive vulnerability, highlighted by 1.6 goals conceded and high xG against, may be exposed by a top‑three side. A key factor to watch will be how Valencia’s back line copes with sustained pressure; if Villarreal impose themselves early, the hosts are well placed to turn their dominance into a high‑scoring win.

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