Ligue 1 2025-2026: Angers vs Lille Prediction - 22 Feb 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Angers

Home Team
6%
VS

Lille

Away Team
88%
Draw: 6%
Over 2.5: 46%
Under 2.5: 54%
Goal: 53%
No Goal: 47%
Expected Corners: 9.0
Expected Shots: 23.3

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Lens 22 17 1 4 42 17 25 52
2 Paris FC 22 16 3 3 49 19 30 51
3 Lyon 22 14 3 5 36 20 16 45
4 Marseille 22 12 4 6 48 29 19 40
5 Lille 22 10 4 8 35 31 4 34
6 Rennes 22 9 7 6 34 35 -1 34
7 Strasbourg 22 9 4 9 36 29 7 31
8 Monaco 22 9 4 9 35 34 1 31
9 Lorient 22 8 7 7 29 33 -4 31
10 Toulouse 22 8 6 8 32 26 6 30
11 Angers 22 8 5 9 22 27 -5 29
12 Brest 22 7 6 9 29 34 -5 27
13 Le Havre 22 6 8 8 20 27 -7 26
14 Nice 22 6 5 11 27 40 -13 23
15 Paris FC 22 5 7 10 26 39 -13 22
16 Auxerre 22 4 5 13 17 30 -13 17
17 Nantes 22 3 5 14 20 40 -20 14
18 Metz 22 3 4 15 22 49 -27 13

Recent Trends

Angers L W W D L

  • Last Match: L vs Lorient (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Toulouse (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Metz (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Paris FC (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Marseille (Goals: 2 - 5)

Lille D D L L L

  • Last Match: D vs Brest (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Metz (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Lyon (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Strasbourg (Goals: 1 - 4)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Paris SG (Goals: 0 - 3)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Angers

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.54
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.45
# Clean Sheets: 3

Lille

Average Expected Goals (xG): 0.94
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.17
# Clean Sheets: 1

Key Prediction Insights

Lille are strong favourites here, with an 88.0% probability of taking all three points away at Angers, who have just a 6.0% chance of a home win and sit 11th in Ligue 1, while Lille are 5th and pushing for European places. The model also leans towards a tight encounter, with an under 2.5 goals prediction despite only a moderate 46.0% probability on the over. Overall, it points to a Lille win in a controlled, relatively low-scoring game.

Match Analysis

Angers come into this clash with two gritty 1-0 home wins over Toulouse and Metz, sandwiched around a 2-0 away defeat at Lorient. That run underlines a clear pattern: they are stronger at home, capable of edging tight games through organisation and work rate rather than heavy scoring. Their advanced numbers back that up – 1.8 goals scored and 1.6 conceded on average over the last five, with xG for (1.544) and against (1.446) both close to parity and three clean sheets in that span, suggesting a side that can keep things tight when their structure holds. Lille’s recent form has been more frustrating than poor: a 1-1 draw with Brest and goalless draw at Metz before a narrow 1-0 loss away to Lyon. They have dominated territory and chances, as seen in big corner and shot advantages in all three games, but not turned that into goals. Their recent averages – 1.0 goal scored and 1.4 conceded, with xG for at 0.938 and xG against at 1.174 – show a team creating enough to edge games but lacking a clinical edge in front of goal. Even so, their higher league position and more stable underlying metrics give them a clear statistical edge over Angers.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Angers
Goals in last 5 matches
Lille
Goals in last 5 matches
The model points towards under 2.5 with the over 2.5 prediction only given a 46.0% chance, so a low-scoring match is slightly favoured. All three of Angers’ last games have finished under 2.5 goals (0-2, 1-0, 1-0), while all three of Lille’s have also been under (1-1, 0-0, 0-1). With Angers’ recent goals for (1.8) and against (1.6) aligned with moderate xG figures, and Lille averaging just 1.0 scored and 1.4 conceded with sub-1.0 xG in attack, the data supports an “under 2.5” call.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Angers
Corners in last 5 matches
Lille
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total corners for this match is 9.04, pointing towards a medium-to-lively corners prediction. Angers have had fairly modest corner counts in recent games (2-3, 3-5, 4-3), reflecting a measured style and fewer all-out attacking waves. Lille, by contrast, have piled up corners – 13-1 vs Brest, 6-1 at Metz, 7-2 at Lyon – which fits a front-foot, crossing-heavy approach. That combination suggests Lille’s pressure should drive the predicted corners total close to the 9-mark.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Angers
Shots in last 5 matches
Lille
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total shots for this game is 23.34, a solid figure that suits a match where Lille are likely to take the initiative. Angers’ recent shot numbers (10, 12, 17 taken; 8, 12, 5 faced) show they can both create and limit chances, particularly at home. Lille have consistently outshot opponents (20-11, 16-6, 11-4), and that volume marries well with their xG profile to justify a relatively high shots prediction and expected shots total.

Final Prediction

Lille’s superior league position, stronger recent chance creation and dominance in key metrics like shots and corners explain why they are heavily backed to win. Angers’ resilience at home and string of low-scoring matches suggest they can make it competitive. The key factor to watch will be whether Lille can finally turn territorial control and set-piece pressure into goals in what should be a tactical, cagey contest.

Get Daily Football Predictions

Enjoyed this analysis? Subscribe to our Telegram channel and receive daily AI-driven football predictions directly on your phone.

Join Our Telegram Channel