Ligue 1 2025-2026: Angers vs Nice Prediction - 14 Mar 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Angers

Home Team
27%
VS

Nice

Away Team
52%
Draw: 21%
Over 2.5: 44%
Under 2.5: 56%
Goal: 52%
No Goal: 48%
Expected Corners: 9.5
Expected Shots: 24.4

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Paris FC 25 18 3 4 54 22 32 57
2 Lens 25 18 2 5 48 21 27 56
3 Marseille 25 14 4 7 52 33 19 46
4 Lyon 25 14 4 7 40 27 13 46
5 Rennes 25 12 7 6 42 35 7 43
6 Lille 25 12 5 8 38 32 6 41
7 Monaco 25 12 4 9 43 37 6 40
8 Strasbourg 25 10 6 9 40 31 9 36
9 Brest 25 10 6 9 34 34 0 36
10 Lorient 25 8 10 7 35 39 -4 34
11 Angers 25 9 5 11 23 30 -7 32
12 Toulouse 25 8 7 10 33 29 4 31
13 Paris FC 25 6 9 10 29 41 -12 27
14 Le Havre 25 6 8 11 20 32 -12 26
15 Nice 25 6 6 13 30 48 -18 24
16 Auxerre 25 4 7 14 19 35 -16 19
17 Nantes 25 4 5 16 22 42 -20 17
18 Metz 25 3 4 18 22 56 -34 13

Recent Trends

Angers W L L L W

  • Last Match: W vs Nantes (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Monaco (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Lille (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Lorient (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Toulouse (Goals: 1 - 0)

Nice L L D L D

  • Last Match: L vs Rennes (Goals: 0 - 4)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Paris FC (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Lorient (Goals: 3 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Lyon (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Monaco (Goals: 0 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Angers

xG (avg) 1.37
xGA (avg) 1.60
Clean Sheets 2

Nice

xG (avg) 1.26
xGA (avg) 1.80
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

Nice are slight favourites on the road here, with a 52.0% chance of taking all three points against an Angers side given a 27.0% shot at victory (21.0% draw). The model leans towards a tight away win and an under 2.5 goals prediction, with only a 44.0% chance of the game going above that line. In the table, Angers sit 11th on 32 points while Nice are 15th on 24 points, but the numbers still narrowly favour the visitors.

Match Analysis

Angers come into this on the back of a mixed run: a gritty 1-0 away win at Nantes was wrapped by defeats to Monaco (0-2 away) and Lille (0-1 at home). Those three matches totalled just four goals, underlining how tight and low-scoring their games have been lately. Even so, their recent form over five games shows some balance: 1.6 goals scored on average, 1.4 conceded, and two clean sheets, suggesting they can edge close contests when they keep things compact. Nice, by contrast, look far more volatile. A heavy 0-4 home defeat to Rennes exposed defensive frailties, following a narrow 0-1 loss at Paris FC and a wild 3-3 draw at home to Lorient. Across their last five, they average only 1.0 goal scored but 2.2 conceded; their expected goals conceded figure (1.796) also confirms this defensive vulnerability. Offensively, 1.264 xG per game hints that chances are there, but they are not consistently turning them into goals.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Angers
Goals in last 5 matches
Nice
Goals in last 5 matches
The model points to under 2.5 with a 56.0% implied probability, and the recent numbers back that stance. All three of Angers’ last matches finished under 2.5 total goals (1-0, 0-2, 0-1). Nice have been more chaotic — two of their last three went over (0-4, 3-3) with only the 0-1 loss at Paris FC landing under 2.5 — but their five-game averages of 1.0 scored and 2.2 conceded still net out to a modest total. With Angers posting 1.37 xG for and 1.602 xG against, and Nice similar on xG, the over 2.5 prediction doesn’t look as strong as an attritional under 2.5 outcome.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Angers
Corners in last 5 matches
Nice
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The predicted corners figure stands at 9.53, pointing to a match around the 9–10 corners mark. Angers’ recent games have been quite modest in this area: 7 corners at Nantes (4-3), 7 at Monaco (2-5) and just 8 at home to Lille (1-7). Nice, however, have seen higher counts: 8 at Paris FC (6-8), 10 against Lorient (3-7) and 8 versus Rennes (7-1). That blend suggests a corners prediction just below double figures, with Nice’s more open, end-to-end style likely to generate attacking set-pieces even if the scoreline stays tight.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Angers
Shots in last 5 matches
Nice
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots total is 24.42, which fits neatly with both teams’ recent patterns. Angers have allowed more attempts than they’ve taken in their last three: 11-13 at Nantes, 6-10 at Monaco, and 6-14 against Lille. Nice have been involved in shot-heavy encounters too, with tallies of 11-16 away to Paris FC, 8-17 at home to Lorient, and 14-12 versus Rennes. That volume aligns with their xG profiles and supports a shots prediction in the mid-20s, with Nice likely to edge the shot count even if the finishing remains inconsistent.

Final Prediction

Nice are backed as narrow favourites despite their lower league position, largely because their attacking volume and underlying chance creation look slightly stronger than Angers’ recent output. Angers’ discipline and ability to keep scores down mean this is unlikely to be a free-for-all, but if Nice can tighten up at the back, their pressure and shot numbers could tilt a low-scoring contest their way. The key factor to watch will be whether Angers’ defence can absorb Nice’s volume of attempts without cracking.

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