Ligue 1 2025-2026: Angers vs Paris SG Prediction - 25 Apr 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Angers

Home Team
14%
VS

Paris SG

Away Team
71%
Draw: 15%
Over 2.5: 58%
Under 2.5: 42%
Goal: 63%
No Goal: 37%
Expected Corners: 10.6
Expected Shots: 27.7
Expected Spread: -1.9

Also available in Claude. Query these predictions in plain language — our native connector lets Claude call our models on demand, no code.

Set it up

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Paris FC 29 21 3 5 65 25 40 66
2 Lens 29 20 2 7 57 29 28 62
3 Lyon 30 16 6 8 45 30 15 54
4 Lille 30 16 6 8 49 34 15 54
5 Rennes 30 15 8 7 52 41 11 53
6 Marseille 30 16 4 10 58 40 18 52
7 Monaco 30 15 5 10 52 45 7 50
8 Strasbourg 29 12 7 10 46 37 9 43
9 Lorient 30 10 11 9 40 44 -4 41
10 Paris FC 30 9 11 10 40 46 -6 38
11 Toulouse 30 10 7 13 41 42 -1 37
12 Brest 29 10 7 12 38 44 -6 37
13 Angers 30 9 7 14 26 40 -14 34
14 Le Havre 30 6 12 12 25 38 -13 30
15 Nice 30 7 8 15 34 56 -22 29
16 Auxerre 30 5 10 15 25 39 -14 25
17 Nantes 30 4 8 18 25 49 -24 20
18 Metz 30 3 6 21 27 66 -39 15

Recent Trends

Angers D L D L L

  • Last Match: D vs Le Havre (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Rennes (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Lyon (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Lens (Goals: 1 - 5)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Nice (Goals: 0 - 2)

Paris SG W L W W L

  • Last Match: W vs Nantes (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Lyon (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Toulouse (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Nice (Goals: 4 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Monaco (Goals: 1 - 3)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Angers

xG (avg) 0.72
xGA (avg) 1.42
Clean Sheets 1

Paris SG

xG (avg) 3.12
xGA (avg) 1.00
Clean Sheets 2

Key Prediction Insights

Paris SG are strong favourites here, with a 71.0% chance of victory against Angers’ 14.0%, and a 15.0% probability of a draw. The model leans towards an away win by a clear margin, with an expected goal spread of -1.9, and points to an over 2.5 prediction at 58.0%. Angers come into this 13th in Ligue 1 on 34 points, while Paris SG are operating at title-challenger level despite not appearing in the provided top-three table.

Match Analysis

Angers have been stubborn but limited in recent weeks. They are unbeaten in their last two (draws against Le Havre and Lyon) after a narrow defeat at Rennes, but goals remain a major issue: just 2 scored and 3 conceded across their last three matches. The pattern fits the wider trend – an average of only 0.4 goals scored and 0.8 conceded over the last five games, with xG of 0.72 for and 1.42 against. They are keeping games tight but usually on the back foot, relying on defensive organisation more than attacking flair. Paris SG, by contrast, look far more explosive. They have two convincing home wins over Toulouse (3-1) and Nantes (3-0) wrapped around an unlucky-looking 2-1 defeat to Lyon, a match they dominated in shots (23-6) and corners (13-5). Over their last five, they average 1.8 goals scored and only 0.8 conceded, but the underlying numbers are even more bullish: 3.124 xG created per game and just 0.996 xG allowed. That gap in chance quality and volume is exactly what drives the heavy tilt in favour of the visitors.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Angers
Goals in last 5 matches
Paris SG
Goals in last 5 matches
The over 2.5 prediction is preferred at 58.0%, with the model expecting Paris SG’s firepower to push the game above the line. Only 1 of Angers’ last 3 league matches has gone over 2.5 goals (the 1-2 defeat at Rennes), reflecting their low attacking output and cautious approach. Paris SG, on the other hand, have seen 2 of their last 3 go over 2.5 (3-1 vs Toulouse, 3-0 vs Nantes), and their combination of 1.8 goals scored, 0.8 conceded and very strong xG numbers suggests they can produce enough chances on their own to take this over.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Angers
Corners in last 5 matches
Paris SG
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The predicted corners total is 10.62, pointing towards a match with plenty of action in the final third, especially from the visitors. Angers’ last three games have produced modest corner counts (4-3, 3-11, 3-7), underlining how often they are pushed back and defending set pieces. Paris SG have regularly piled up corners, especially at home (7-6 vs Nantes, 13-5 vs Lyon, 5-2 vs Toulouse), and that attacking, front-foot style underpins this corners prediction, with the predicted corners number sitting slightly above a typical Ligue 1 average.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Angers
Shots in last 5 matches
Paris SG
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots figure of 27.67 suggests a lively contest, largely driven by Paris SG’s attacking volume. Angers’ recent matches have been relatively low-event for them going forward (11, 6 and 7 shots), while allowing between 11 and 16 efforts to their opponents. Paris SG, however, have unleashed 14, 23 and 17 shots in their last three, consistently outshooting rivals and backing up their xG edge. That shot volume, tied to their 3.124 xG per game, fully supports this shots prediction of close to 28 total attempts.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Angers wins by X goals. Negative = Paris SG wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Angers vs Paris SG with expected spread of -1.9
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Angers vs Paris SG
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The goal spread prediction sits at -1.9, meaning Paris SG are expected to win by nearly two goals on average. Angers’ recent goal differences are narrow (0 in the draws with Le Havre and Lyon, -1 at Rennes), but those slender margins came in games where they were outshot and out-created. Paris SG’s recent scorelines (+3 vs Nantes, +2 vs Toulouse, -1 vs Lyon despite dominance) and their superior offensive and defensive metrics align with both the expected spread and the 71.0% away-win probability.

Final Prediction

Paris SG’s edge in chance creation, shot volume and xG makes them clear favourites despite Angers’ recent resilience and home advantage. If Angers are to take anything, they will need to repeat their defensive focus while being far more ruthless with the few chances they do create. The key factor to watch will be whether Angers can withstand the sustained pressure in wide areas, where Paris SG’s attacks so often translate into shots, corners and ultimately goals.

Get Daily Football Predictions

Enjoyed this analysis? Subscribe to our Telegram channel and receive daily AI-driven football predictions directly on your phone.

Join Our Telegram Channel