Ligue 1 2025-2026: Angers vs Strasbourg Prediction - 10 May 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Angers

Home Team
26%
VS

Strasbourg

Away Team
52%
Draw: 22%
Over 2.5: 57%
Under 2.5: 43%
Goal: 54%
No Goal: 46%
Expected Corners: 9.3
Expected Shots: 24.3
Expected Spread: -0.5

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Paris SG 31 22 4 5 70 27 43 70
2 Lens 31 20 4 7 61 33 28 64
3 Lyon 32 18 6 8 52 34 18 60
4 Lille 32 17 7 8 51 35 16 58
5 Rennes 32 16 8 8 56 46 10 56
6 Monaco 32 16 6 10 56 48 8 54
7 Marseille 32 16 5 11 59 44 15 53
8 Strasbourg 31 13 7 11 50 41 9 46
9 Lorient 32 10 12 10 44 49 -5 42
10 Toulouse 32 11 8 13 45 45 0 41
11 Paris FC 32 10 11 11 44 47 -3 41
12 Brest 31 10 8 13 41 51 -10 38
13 Angers 32 9 7 16 27 46 -19 34
14 Le Havre 32 6 14 12 30 43 -13 32
15 Nice 32 7 10 15 36 58 -22 31
16 Auxerre 32 6 10 16 30 43 -13 28
17 Nantes 32 5 8 19 29 51 -22 23
18 Metz 32 3 7 22 32 72 -40 16

Recent Trends

Angers L L D L D

  • Last Match: L vs Auxerre (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Paris SG (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Le Havre (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Rennes (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Lyon (Goals: 0 - 0)

Strasbourg L W L W W

  • Last Match: L vs Toulouse (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Lorient (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Rennes (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Nice (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Nantes (Goals: 3 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Angers

xG (avg) 0.68
xGA (avg) 1.88
Clean Sheets 1

Strasbourg

xG (avg) 1.80
xGA (avg) 1.60
Clean Sheets 0

Key Prediction Insights

Strasbourg travel to Angers as clear favourites, with a 52.0% chance of taking all three points compared to just 26.0% for the hosts and a 22.0% probability of a draw. Sitting 8th on 46 points, Strasbourg are pushing for the European places, while 13th‑placed Angers, on 34 points, are still glancing nervously over their shoulders. The model also leans towards an open game, with an over 2.5 goals prediction at 57.0% and a slight overall edge to the visitors in the expected spread.

Match Analysis

Angers arrive in poor form and low on confidence. They’ve taken just one point from their last three outings – a 1-1 draw at home to Le Havre – sandwiched between a 0-3 home defeat to leaders Paris SG and a 1-3 loss away at Auxerre. The pattern is worrying: only two goals scored in those three games and seven conceded, with Angers often second best in shots (9-19 at Auxerre, 6-17 vs PSG, 11-16 vs Le Havre). Over the last five matches they are averaging just 0.2 goals scored and 1.4 conceded, with xG numbers (0.684 for, 1.882 against per game) underlining a blunt attack and a defence that is constantly under pressure. Strasbourg, by contrast, look far more dangerous going forward, even if results have been mixed. They’ve lost two of their last three – 0-3 at home to Rennes and 1-2 at home to Toulouse – but did claim a 3-2 away win at Lorient, showing their attacking threat and willingness to trade chances. Across their last five outings they are averaging 1.8 goals scored and 1.6 conceded, with matching 1.8 xG for and 1.598 xG against, a profile of a side that plays front-foot football but leaves space. That attacking edge, combined with Angers’ struggles in both boxes, is a key reason why Strasbourg are favoured.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Angers
Goals in last 5 matches
Strasbourg
Goals in last 5 matches
The model leans to an over 2.5 prediction at 57.0%, and recent scorelines back the idea of goals. Two of Angers’ last three matches went over 2.5 goals (1-3 vs Auxerre, 0-3 vs PSG), with only the 1-1 against Le Havre staying under. For Strasbourg, two of their last three also finished over 2.5 (3-2 at Lorient, 1-2 vs Toulouse), with only the 0-3 loss to Rennes landing under in total goals terms. With Strasbourg’s attack at 1.8 goals and 1.8 xG per game and Angers conceding 1.4 goals from 1.882 xG, the case for over 2.5 is stronger than for under 2.5.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Angers
Corners in last 5 matches
Strasbourg
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total corners for this match is 9.27, pointing towards a moderately active but not frantic game on the flanks. Angers’ recent corner counts (6, 5, 4 taken; 4, 4, 3 conceded) suggest a side that doesn’t flood the box but still generates a steady stream of set-pieces. Strasbourg have posted higher numbers, especially at home (8 and 2 corners won in their two defeats, plus 7 at Lorient), which fits an attacking style that pushes full-backs high. That balance supports a corners prediction close to the 9–10 range, with Strasbourg’s pressure likely nudging the total slightly upwards.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Angers
Shots in last 5 matches
Strasbourg
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
With an expected total shots figure of 24.31, the shots prediction sits in line with what both teams have been producing. Angers have faced heavy shot volumes lately (19, 17, 16 against) while managing 9, 6 and 11 of their own, often chasing games and defending deep. Strasbourg’s last three show similar patterns: 9, 11 and 9 shots attempted, but big numbers conceded (16 vs Toulouse, 14 at Lorient, 26 vs Rennes), reflecting an open style. Those trends, aligned with Strasbourg’s 1.8 xG per match, make around 24–25 expected shots a realistic benchmark.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Angers wins by X goals. Negative = Strasbourg wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Angers vs Strasbourg with expected spread of -0.5
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Angers vs Strasbourg
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The goal spread prediction sits at -0.5 in favour of Strasbourg, meaning the away side are expected to edge this by a single goal on average. Recent goal differences support that view: Angers are -5 over their last three (1-3, 0-3, 1-1), while Strasbourg are only -1 in the same period (1-2, 3-2, 0-3) despite facing strong opposition. Coupled with the 52.0% away win probability and Strasbourg’s clear attacking superiority in both goals and xG, the expected spread logically tilts towards the visitors.

Final Prediction

Strasbourg’s sharper attack, better recent scoring record and stronger underlying numbers give them the edge over an Angers side short of cutting edge and regularly out-shot. If the visitors impose their usual high-tempo approach, Angers’ porous defence could struggle to cope. A key factor to watch will be whether Angers can disrupt Strasbourg’s rhythm early; if they can’t, the game is likely to flow in the direction the data suggests – towards an away win with goals.

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