Ligue 1 2025-2026: Auxerre vs Brest Prediction - 21 Mar 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Auxerre

Home Team
35%
VS

Brest

Away Team
40%
Draw: 25%
Over 2.5: 47%
Under 2.5: 53%
Goal: 54%
No Goal: 46%
Expected Corners: 9.6
Expected Shots: 24.2

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Paris SG 25 18 3 4 54 22 32 57
2 Lens 26 18 2 6 49 23 26 56
3 Marseille 26 15 4 7 53 33 20 49
4 Lyon 26 14 5 7 40 27 13 47
5 Lille 26 13 5 8 40 33 7 44
6 Monaco 26 13 4 9 45 37 8 43
7 Rennes 26 12 7 7 43 37 6 43
8 Strasbourg 26 10 7 9 40 31 9 37
9 Lorient 26 9 10 7 37 40 -3 37
10 Brest 26 10 6 10 34 36 -2 36
11 Toulouse 26 9 7 10 37 32 5 34
12 Angers 26 9 5 12 23 32 -9 32
13 Paris FC 26 6 10 10 29 41 -12 28
14 Le Havre 26 6 9 11 20 32 -12 27
15 Nice 26 7 6 13 32 48 -16 27
16 Auxerre 26 4 7 15 19 36 -17 19
17 Nantes 25 4 5 16 22 42 -20 17
18 Metz 26 3 4 19 25 60 -35 13

Recent Trends

Auxerre L D D L W

  • Last Match: L vs Marseille (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Strasbourg (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Lorient (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Rennes (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Metz (Goals: 3 - 1)

Brest L W W W D

  • Last Match: L vs Monaco (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Le Havre (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Metz (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Marseille (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Lille (Goals: 1 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Auxerre

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.17
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.21
# Clean Sheets: 1

Brest

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.27
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 2.00
# Clean Sheets: 3

Key Prediction Insights

Brest are marginal favourites here, with a 40.0% chance of victory against Auxerre’s 35.0%, and the draw at 25.0%, but the model leans towards the home side snatching it despite Brest sitting 10th and Auxerre down in 16th. The game is forecast to be tight, with an under 2.5 goals prediction at 53.0% implied by a 47.0% chance of over 2.5. With Auxerre fighting to stay above the bottom two and Brest trying to climb from mid‑table towards the European spots, the stakes are obvious.

Match Analysis

Auxerre come in scrapping for every point. A narrow 0-1 defeat away at third‑placed Marseille was followed by a 0-0 stalemate at home to Strasbourg and a 2-2 draw at Lorient. That run – two draws and a loss – shows some resilience, especially defensively at home, but also underlines their issues in front of goal: just two goals in their last three matches. Across the last five, they’ve averaged only 0.6 goals scored per game, though their xG of 1.172 suggests they are at least creating enough to do slightly better. Brest’s recent form is more positive but far from dominant. They beat Le Havre 2-0 at home and edged Metz 1-0 away before a 0-2 loss at Monaco. That’s two wins and a defeat from their last three, with three goals scored and two conceded – solid, controlled football rather than anything spectacular. Over the last five, they average 1.0 goal scored and 1.4 conceded, with xG for at 1.272 and xG against a relatively high 1.998, hinting that opponents have been creating chances even when Brest kept three clean sheets in that span.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Auxerre
Goals in last 5 matches
Brest
Goals in last 5 matches
The under 2.5 call looks justified here, with a 53.0% edge over the 47.0% probability of an over 2.5 prediction. Two of Auxerre’s last three matches have finished under 2.5 goals (0-1 vs Marseille, 0-0 vs Strasbourg), with only the 2-2 at Lorient going over. All three of Brest’s most recent games have ended under 2.5 (2-0, 1-0, 0-2). With Auxerre averaging 0.6 scored and 1.6 conceded, and Brest at 1.0 scored and 1.4 conceded, plus both sides’ xG numbers just above 1 per game, everything points towards a low‑scoring battle.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Auxerre
Corners in last 5 matches
Brest
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction sits at 9.58 total, suggesting a match with a fair amount of attacking but not a barrage. Auxerre’s last three have produced 7, 9 and 10 total corners respectively, as they both win and concede a steady stream from wide areas. Brest’s games have swung more wildly – 11, 4 and 16 total corners – reflecting spells where they are pinned back as well as periods of sustained pressure. With Brest often allowing opponents to rack up efforts and Auxerre needing to press at home, a total around the predicted corners mark looks realistic.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Auxerre
Shots in last 5 matches
Brest
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots figure of 24.21 hints at a reasonably open contest without becoming a shoot‑out. Auxerre’s last three have seen combined shot counts of 24 (vs Marseille), 23 (vs Strasbourg) and 25 (vs Lorient), right on that line. Brest’s recent matches have also been lively in terms of attempts: 23 shots vs Monaco, 25 vs Le Havre and a remarkable 30 vs Metz. Those volumes line up with each side’s xG profiles, supporting a shots prediction in the mid‑20s with both teams carving out opportunities rather than one‑way traffic.

Final Prediction

Brest’s higher league position (10th vs 16th) and slightly sharper recent results give them the statistical edge, but Auxerre’s improvement in underlying numbers and home advantage explain why the model still fancies a home upset. In a game likely decided by fine margins and under 2.5 goals, the key factor to watch will be which side is more clinical with the limited chances their xG suggests they will create.

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