Ligue 1 2025-2026: Auxerre vs Nice Prediction - 10 May 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Auxerre

Home Team
58%
VS

Nice

Away Team
21%
Draw: 21%
Over 2.5: 47%
Under 2.5: 53%
Goal: 51%
No Goal: 49%
Expected Corners: 9.8
Expected Shots: 23.9
Expected Spread: +0.7

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Paris SG 31 22 4 5 70 27 43 70
2 Lens 31 20 4 7 61 33 28 64
3 Lyon 32 18 6 8 52 34 18 60
4 Lille 32 17 7 8 51 35 16 58
5 Rennes 32 16 8 8 56 46 10 56
6 Monaco 32 16 6 10 56 48 8 54
7 Marseille 32 16 5 11 59 44 15 53
8 Strasbourg 31 13 7 11 50 41 9 46
9 Lorient 32 10 12 10 44 49 -5 42
10 Toulouse 32 11 8 13 45 45 0 41
11 Paris FC 32 10 11 11 44 47 -3 41
12 Brest 31 10 8 13 41 51 -10 38
13 Angers 32 9 7 16 27 46 -19 34
14 Le Havre 32 6 14 12 30 43 -13 32
15 Nice 32 7 10 15 36 58 -22 31
16 Auxerre 32 6 10 16 30 43 -13 28
17 Nantes 32 5 8 19 29 51 -22 23
18 Metz 32 3 7 22 32 72 -40 16

Recent Trends

Auxerre W L D D D

  • Last Match: W vs Angers (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Lyon (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Monaco (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Nantes (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Le Havre (Goals: 1 - 1)

Nice D D D D L

  • Last Match: D vs Lens (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Marseille (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Lille (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Le Havre (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Strasbourg (Goals: 1 - 3)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Auxerre

xG (avg) 1.43
xGA (avg) 1.38
Clean Sheets 1

Nice

xG (avg) 0.96
xGA (avg) 1.63
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

Auxerre are favoured to take all three points here, with a home win given a 58.0% probability against just 21.0% for Nice and 21.0% for the draw. The model leans towards a tight contest in terms of goals, with an under 2.5 prediction at 53.0% despite expecting both teams to score. In the table, Nice sit 15th on 31 points, three clear of 16th-placed Auxerre on 28, so this is a genuine six-pointer in the lower half of Ligue 1.

Match Analysis

Auxerre come in with real momentum. A 3-1 home win over Angers was followed by an admirable 3-2 defeat away to third-placed Lyon and a 2-2 draw at Monaco – seven goals scored in three matches against strong opponents. Their recent averages underline a more balanced side than the league position suggests: 1.2 goals scored and only 0.8 conceded per game over the last five, backed by 1.43 xG for and 1.38 xG against, plus one clean sheet. Nice, by contrast, have become hard to beat but struggle to win. Three consecutive draws – 1-1 against Lens, 1-1 at Marseille and 0-0 at Lille – show a cautious, containment-first approach. They average just 0.8 goals scored and 1.0 conceded in their last five, with xG numbers (0.96 for, 1.63 against) suggesting they are often second-best in chance creation and relying on resilience rather than dominance.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Auxerre
Goals in last 5 matches
Nice
Goals in last 5 matches
The model’s under 2.5 prediction at 53.0% reflects a likely cagey battle despite Auxerre’s recent goalfests. Two of Auxerre’s last three matches went over 2.5 goals (3-1 vs Angers, 3-2 vs Lyon), with only the 2-2 in Monaco also clearing that mark – three very open games. Nice have gone under 2.5 in two of their last three (0-0 at Lille, 1-1 at Marseille) and exactly two goals against Lens, which, combined with their 0.8 scored and 1.0 conceded per game and sub-1.0 xG in attack, supports a narrow under 2.5 call even if both sides do find the net.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Auxerre
Corners in last 5 matches
Nice
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total corners for this match is 9.77, pointing towards a fairly typical Ligue 1 rhythm. Auxerre’s last three have produced 10, 9 and 14 corners respectively, with them often conceding more than they take (4-6 vs Angers, 3-6 at Lyon, 3-11 at Monaco), hinting at a side that soaks up pressure and breaks. Nice’s recent games have seen 15, 8 and 8 corners (7-8 vs Lens, 1-7 at Marseille, 3-5 at Lille), again suggesting opponents do much of the attacking. The corners prediction of around 10 fits a game where Auxerre push more at home but Nice’s conservative style keeps things from becoming a corner-fest.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Auxerre
Shots in last 5 matches
Nice
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The shots prediction sits at 23.91 expected shots in total, roughly in line with what both teams have been involved in recently. Auxerre’s last three matches featured 28, 21 and 27 shots, while Nice’s produced 25, 29 and 14, with Nice regularly allowing more efforts than they take (for instance 5-24 at Marseille and 9-16 vs Lens). Given Auxerre’s 1.43 xG average and Nice’s 1.63 xG conceded, the expected shots tally supports the idea of Auxerre generating the clearer openings, even in a match where chances may not be constant.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Auxerre wins by X goals. Negative = Nice wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Auxerre vs Nice with expected spread of +0.7
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Auxerre vs Nice
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The goal spread prediction has Auxerre favoured by 0.66 goals, signalling the home side are expected to win by around a one-goal margin. Recently, Auxerre’s goal differences have been +2, -1 and 0 in their last three, while Nice have posted three straight draws with a combined goal difference of 0. This expected spread aligns with the 58.0% home-win probability: Auxerre’s sharper attack and tighter recent defence give them a slight but notable edge over a Nice team that creates little and leans on defensive organisation.

Final Prediction

Auxerre’s blend of improving form, stronger underlying numbers and home advantage makes them rightful favourites against a Nice side locked in a cycle of low-scoring draws. If Auxerre can maintain their recent attacking output while Nice continue to struggle in front of goal, the fine margins in this relegation scrap should tilt towards the hosts. A key factor to watch will be whether Nice can lift their attacking xG and shot volume; if they don’t, Auxerre’s pressure is likely to tell.

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