Ligue 1 2025-2026: Auxerre vs Rennes Prediction - 22 Feb 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Auxerre

Home Team
38%
VS

Rennes

Away Team
36%
Draw: 26%
Over 2.5: 49%
Under 2.5: 51%
Goal: 52%
No Goal: 48%
Expected Corners: 9.8
Expected Shots: 25.3

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Lens 22 17 1 4 42 17 25 52
2 Paris FC 22 16 3 3 49 19 30 51
3 Lyon 22 14 3 5 36 20 16 45
4 Marseille 22 12 4 6 48 29 19 40
5 Lille 22 10 4 8 35 31 4 34
6 Rennes 22 9 7 6 34 35 -1 34
7 Strasbourg 22 9 4 9 36 29 7 31
8 Monaco 22 9 4 9 35 34 1 31
9 Lorient 22 8 7 7 29 33 -4 31
10 Toulouse 22 8 6 8 32 26 6 30
11 Angers 22 8 5 9 22 27 -5 29
12 Brest 22 7 6 9 29 34 -5 27
13 Le Havre 22 6 8 8 20 27 -7 26
14 Nice 22 6 5 11 27 40 -13 23
15 Paris FC 22 5 7 10 26 39 -13 22
16 Auxerre 22 4 5 13 17 30 -13 17
17 Nantes 22 3 5 14 20 40 -20 14
18 Metz 22 3 4 15 22 49 -27 13

Recent Trends

Auxerre W D D L L

  • Last Match: W vs Metz (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Paris FC (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Toulouse (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Paris SG (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Lens (Goals: 0 - 1)

Rennes W L L L D

  • Last Match: W vs Paris SG (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Lens (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Monaco (Goals: 0 - 4)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Lorient (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Le Havre (Goals: 1 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Auxerre

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.57
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.06
# Clean Sheets: 2

Rennes

Average Expected Goals (xG): 0.88
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.60
# Clean Sheets: 0

Key Prediction Insights

Auxerre are marginally favoured at home, with a 38.0% chance of victory compared to Rennes’ 36.0%, and the model pointing to a home win despite Rennes sitting 6th on 34 points and Auxerre down in 16th on 17 points. The game leans towards a tight affair, with an under 2.5 goals prediction backed by a 51.0% chance that the match stays low-scoring. A draw remains a real possibility at 26.0%, underlining how finely balanced this clash is.

Match Analysis

Auxerre come in quietly rejuvenated: unbeaten in three (W-D-D), including an impressive 3-1 away win at Metz followed by back-to-back clean sheets against Paris FC and Toulouse, both 0-0. They’ve tightened up at the back and, over the last five games, are averaging 1.2 goals scored and 1.2 conceded, with xG of 1.57 for and just 1.064 against. Two clean sheets in that stretch show a side becoming harder to break down at a time when every point matters in their battle to escape the relegation scrap. Rennes, despite being 6th and pushing for European places, arrive in more volatile form: a big 3-1 home win over Paris SG was bookended by heavy defeats away to Lens (1-3) and Monaco (0-4). They’re scoring only 0.8 goals per game over their last five while conceding 2.4, and their expected goals numbers (0.88 for, 1.6 against) back up the sense that they’re being out-created too often. With no clean sheets in that span, their defence looks vulnerable, especially away from home, which is where Auxerre will look to exploit any early nerves.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Auxerre
Goals in last 5 matches
Rennes
Goals in last 5 matches
The model leans under 2.5 with a 51.0% probability, despite a 49.0% chance of over 2.5 goals, making a narrow, cagey scoreline the preferred call. Auxerre’s last three matches have produced one game over 2.5 (the 3-1 at Metz) and two clear unders (both 0-0), while all three of Rennes’ recent games landed over 2.5 with exactly four total goals each. Auxerre’s balanced 1.2 scored and 1.2 conceded per game, combined with their lower xG conceded (1.064) against a Rennes attack at just 0.88 xG, supports an under 2.5 and over 2.5 prediction tilt towards a slightly more conservative outlook.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Auxerre
Corners in last 5 matches
Rennes
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total corners for this match is 9.81, suggesting a game with steady but not frantic attacking pressure. Auxerre’s recent corner counts (3, 7, 4) and their opponents’ (4, 4, 5) show fairly even battles, reflecting a balanced approach rather than constant wing bombardment. Rennes’ last three (5, 4, 2 for; 8, 4, 5 against) also point to opponents often pushing them back, which fits a corners prediction around the 9–10 mark rather than an extreme total.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Auxerre
Shots in last 5 matches
Rennes
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total shots is 25.3, indicating a match where both sides should fashion a decent number of attempts without turning it into a shoot-out. Auxerre’s shot numbers (14, 12, 8 for; 13, 8, 12 against) and Rennes’ (13, 14, 8 for; 22, 10, 14 against) both show consistent double-digit efforts either taken or faced. That aligns with a shots prediction in the mid‑20s and fits the xG data: Auxerre’s higher attacking xG (1.57) and Rennes’ defensive xG against (1.6) point to chances being created, even if not all are high-quality.

Final Prediction

Auxerre’s edge comes from recent momentum and defensive improvement, combined with Rennes’ shaky away form and leaky back line. While Rennes are higher in the table, the numbers suggest a tight home win is plausible, especially if Auxerre can again limit chances against. A key factor to watch will be whether Rennes can lift their attacking output above that 0.88 xG average, or if Auxerre’s newfound resilience continues to tilt close matches in their favour.

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