Ligue 1 2025-2026: Auxerre vs Strasbourg Prediction - 7 Mar 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Auxerre

Home Team
22%
VS

Strasbourg

Away Team
60%
Draw: 18%
Over 2.5: 47%
Under 2.5: 53%
Goal: 51%
No Goal: 49%
Expected Corners: 9.2
Expected Shots: 23.8

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Paris FC 24 18 3 3 53 19 34 57
2 Lens 24 17 2 5 45 21 24 53
3 Lyon 24 14 3 7 39 26 13 45
4 Marseille 24 13 4 7 51 33 18 43
5 Lille 24 12 4 8 37 31 6 40
6 Rennes 24 11 7 6 38 35 3 40
7 Monaco 24 11 4 9 40 36 4 37
8 Strasbourg 24 10 5 9 40 31 9 35
9 Brest 24 9 6 9 32 34 -2 33
10 Lorient 24 8 9 7 34 38 -4 33
11 Toulouse 24 8 7 9 33 28 5 31
12 Angers 24 8 5 11 22 30 -8 29
13 Le Havre 24 6 8 10 20 30 -10 26
14 Paris FC 24 6 8 10 28 40 -12 26
15 Nice 24 6 6 12 30 44 -14 24
16 Auxerre 24 4 6 14 19 35 -16 18
17 Nantes 24 4 5 15 22 41 -19 17
18 Metz 24 3 4 17 22 53 -31 13

Recent Trends

Auxerre D L W D D

  • Last Match: D vs Lorient (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Rennes (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Metz (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Paris FC (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Toulouse (Goals: 0 - 0)

Strasbourg D W D L L

  • Last Match: D vs Lens (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Lyon (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Marseille (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Le Havre (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Paris SG (Goals: 1 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Auxerre

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.41
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.03
# Clean Sheets: 2

Strasbourg

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.59
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.45
# Clean Sheets: 0

Key Prediction Insights

Strasbourg travel to Auxerre as clear favourites, with a 60.0% probability of taking all three points against a home side given just a 22.0% chance of victory and an 18.0% likelihood of a draw. The model leans towards a narrow away success combined with an under 2.5 goals prediction, rated at 53.0% for staying below the three-goal line. In the table, Strasbourg are pushing for the European spots in 8th on 35 points, while Auxerre sit 16th on 18 points, just one place and one point above the relegation zone.

Match Analysis

Auxerre come into this under pressure but with some flickers of life. They’ve taken four points from their last three games: an important 3-1 win away at bottom side Metz, a 2-2 draw at Lorient and a sobering 0-3 home defeat to Rennes. Those matches show both sides of their season: they can score – 5 goals in the last three – but remain fragile at the back with 6 conceded. Interestingly, their recent underlying numbers are slightly more encouraging than the raw scorelines: over the last five games they’ve averaged 1.41 expected goals for and only 1.03 against, and they’ve kept two clean sheets in that period, hinting at a team that isn’t quite as porous as their -16 goal difference suggests. Strasbourg, meanwhile, look like a side in form and full of belief. They are unbeaten in their last three – a 3-1 home win over Lyon sandwiched between a 2-2 draw away at Marseille and a 1-1 home draw with high-flying Lens. That run against strong opposition underlines why they’ve climbed to 8th: 6 goals scored and 4 conceded in those three outings, with a consistent attacking output backed up by 1.6 goals and 1.59 expected goals on average across their last five. Defensively they’re not watertight – 1.4 goals and 1.45 xG conceded per game recently and no clean sheets in five – but they tend to edge games through superior firepower, something that could decide this against a struggling Auxerre.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Auxerre
Goals in last 5 matches
Strasbourg
Goals in last 5 matches
The model leans towards under 2.5 with a 53.0% probability, even if the headline scores hint at entertainment. Two of Auxerre’s last three matches went over 2.5 goals (3-1 v Metz, 2-2 at Lorient) and one went under (0-3 v Rennes, exactly three goals but still below the “more than 2.5” line). Strasbourg have seen the opposite: all three of their recent games hit at least three goals, but the over 2.5 prediction is tempered by the underlying numbers – Auxerre are averaging 1.2 scored and 1.8 conceded, Strasbourg 1.6 scored and 1.4 conceded, and both sides’ xG profiles (1.41 for and 1.03 against for Auxerre, 1.59 for and 1.45 against for Strasbourg) suggest tighter contests than some of the recent scorelines.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Auxerre
Corners in last 5 matches
Strasbourg
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction points towards a relatively average game on that front, with 9.19 total corners expected. Auxerre’s last three have produced 10, 9 and 7 corners (they’ve both won and conceded their fair share: 7-3 at Lorient, 4-5 v Rennes, 3-4 at Metz), reflecting a side that does get forward but not relentlessly. Strasbourg’s recent matches show similar variety – 10 corners at home to Lyon, 10 away at Marseille, but only 10 again in the Lens draw where they were pinned back (2-8) – reinforcing the idea of around nine or ten predicted corners overall. With Strasbourg the more proactive attacking unit and Auxerre fighting for survival, we can expect a balanced but not frantic flow of set-piece opportunities.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Auxerre
Shots in last 5 matches
Strasbourg
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots total is 23.81, which fits well with how both sides have been playing. Auxerre’s last three outings have seen combined shot counts of 25 at Lorient (10-15), 23 against Rennes (11-12) and 27 at Metz (14-13), showing that their games do allow chances at both ends. Strasbourg’s fixtures have been more extreme – 33 shots in the Lens draw (8-25), 17 in the Lyon win (13-4) and 22 in Marseille’s 2-2 (12-10) – but across those matches they regularly reach double figures themselves. That aligns with the shots prediction and with their xG: both teams generate around 1.4–1.6 expected goals per match recently, indicating they should muster enough attempts to approach that 24-shot mark, even if finishing isn’t always ruthless.

Final Prediction

Strasbourg’s edge comes from their momentum, higher league position and more consistent attacking threat, all of which underpin their 60.0% win probability against a relegation-threatened Auxerre. The hosts’ recent xG suggests they aren’t outclassed, but their defensive lapses and league standing leave them vulnerable to a ruthless away side. The key factor to watch will be whether Auxerre’s improved underlying defending (1.03 xG conceded on average) can hold up against Strasbourg’s confident front line or whether the visitors’ firepower eventually tells.

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