Ligue 1 2025-2026: Brest vs Auxerre Prediction - 4 Jan 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5

Brest

Home Team
54%
VS

Auxerre

Away Team
22%
Draw: 23%
Over 2.5: 49%
Under 2.5: 51%
Goal: 56%
No Goal: 44%

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Lens 16 12 1 3 28 13 15 37
2 Paris SG 16 11 3 2 35 14 21 36
3 Marseille 16 10 2 4 36 15 21 32
4 Lille 16 10 2 4 33 20 13 32
5 Lyon 16 8 3 5 22 16 6 27
6 Rennes 16 7 6 3 27 24 3 27
7 Strasbourg 16 7 2 7 25 20 5 23
8 Toulouse 16 6 5 5 24 19 5 23
9 Monaco 16 7 2 7 26 27 -1 23
10 Angers 16 6 4 6 17 18 -1 22
11 Brest 16 5 4 7 21 27 -6 19
12 Lorient 16 4 6 6 19 28 -9 18
13 Nice 16 5 2 9 19 29 -10 17
14 Paris FC 16 4 4 8 21 29 -8 16
15 Le Havre 16 3 6 7 13 22 -9 15
16 Auxerre 16 3 3 10 14 25 -11 12
17 Nantes 16 2 5 9 14 28 -14 11
18 Metz 16 3 2 11 17 37 -20 11

Recent Trends

Brest L W W W L

  • Last Match: L vs Rennes (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Monaco (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Strasbourg (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Metz (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Marseille (Goals: 0 - 3)

Auxerre L W D D L

  • Last Match: L vs Lille (Goals: 3 - 4)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Metz (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Paris FC (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Lyon (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Angers (Goals: 0 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Brest

xG (avg) 1.90
xGA (avg) 1.01
Clean Sheets 1

Auxerre

xG (avg) 0.97
xGA (avg) 2.23
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

The upcoming clash between Brest and Auxerre sees Brest as the predicted winner with a 54.0% probability of victory. The game is expected to be low-scoring, with a 49.0% chance of producing fewer than 2.5 goals. Brest currently sits in 11th place in Ligue 1, while Auxerre is struggling near the bottom at 16th position, fighting to avoid relegation.

Match Analysis

Brest has shown a mix of performances in their last three outings, recently losing to Rennes, but securing back-to-back wins against Monaco and Strasbourg. This indicates a team capable of bouncing back from setbacks. Their goal-scoring average in the past five matches stands at 0.8, but they have a higher expected goals metric of 1.898, suggesting potential for improvement in finishing. Defensively, they've managed to maintain an average of 1.0 goals conceded, with a notable clean sheet against Monaco. Auxerre, on the other hand, has had a challenging period, with a narrow loss to Lille, a victory against Metz, and a draw with Paris FC. Their scoring average is slightly lower at 0.6 goals per game, and defensively they have been more porous, conceding an average of 2.0 goals. Their advanced metrics reflect this struggle, with expected goals conceded at 2.226, highlighting defensive vulnerabilities.

Final Prediction

Brest's recent victories and solid defensive performances provide them with an edge over Auxerre, whose defensive frailties could be exploited. A key factor to watch will be how Brest capitalizes on their chances, potentially translating their higher expected goals into actual goals, to secure the predicted win.

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