Ligue 1 2025-2026: Brest vs Le Havre Prediction - 8 Mar 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Brest

Home Team
73%
VS

Le Havre

Away Team
12%
Draw: 15%
Over 2.5: 54%
Under 2.5: 46%
Goal: 54%
No Goal: 46%
Expected Corners: 9.8
Expected Shots: 25.6

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Paris FC 24 18 3 3 53 19 34 57
2 Lens 24 17 2 5 45 21 24 53
3 Lyon 24 14 3 7 39 26 13 45
4 Marseille 24 13 4 7 51 33 18 43
5 Lille 24 12 4 8 37 31 6 40
6 Rennes 24 11 7 6 38 35 3 40
7 Monaco 24 11 4 9 40 36 4 37
8 Strasbourg 24 10 5 9 40 31 9 35
9 Brest 24 9 6 9 32 34 -2 33
10 Lorient 24 8 9 7 34 38 -4 33
11 Toulouse 24 8 7 9 33 28 5 31
12 Angers 24 8 5 11 22 30 -8 29
13 Le Havre 24 6 8 10 20 30 -10 26
14 Paris FC 24 6 8 10 28 40 -12 26
15 Nice 24 6 6 12 30 44 -14 24
16 Auxerre 24 4 6 14 19 35 -16 18
17 Nantes 24 4 5 15 22 41 -19 17
18 Metz 24 3 4 17 22 53 -31 13

Recent Trends

Brest W W D W D

  • Last Match: W vs Metz (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Marseille (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Lille (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Lorient (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Nice (Goals: 2 - 2)

Le Havre L L W W L

  • Last Match: L vs Paris SG (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Nantes (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Toulouse (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Strasbourg (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Lens (Goals: 0 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Brest

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.41
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 0.82
# Clean Sheets: 3

Le Havre

Average Expected Goals (xG): 0.89
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 2.59
# Clean Sheets: 0

Key Prediction Insights

Brest are strong favourites at home, with a 73.0% probability of victory against a Le Havre side given just a 12.0% chance, and a draw rated at 15.0%. The model points firmly towards a Brest win (“H”) and leans to an over 2.5 goals prediction at 54.0%. In the table, Brest sit 9th on 33 points, while Le Havre are 13th on 26 points and still glancing nervously towards the relegation battle.

Match Analysis

Brest come into this with momentum and defensive solidity. They are unbeaten in their last three (two wins and a draw), beating Marseille 2-0 at home and grinding out results away to Metz (1-0) and Lille (1-1). Those matches underline a compact side that doesn’t need many chances to hurt opponents: just 6 shots at Metz and 11 at Lille, yet they took four points. Over the last five games, Brest average 1.4 goals scored and only 0.4 conceded, with three clean sheets – backed up by strong numbers of 1.41 xG for and just 0.818 xG against. Le Havre’s recent form tells a very different story. They’ve lost three of their last five, and in the most recent three they’ve taken just one win, 2-1 at home to Toulouse, sandwiched between a 0-2 defeat at Nantes and a 0-1 home loss to Paris SG. The major concern is in both boxes: only 0.2 goals scored on average in the last five, while conceding 1.6, with no clean sheets in that spell. Their underlying figures are worrying too – 0.886 xG for but 2.588 xG against on average – suggesting they allow a lot of chances and struggle to create enough of their own.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Brest
Goals in last 5 matches
Le Havre
Goals in last 5 matches
The model goes for over 2.5 goals prediction at 54.0%, with Brest’s attacking edge and Le Havre’s defensive issues tipping the balance. Two of Le Havre’s last three matches reached three goals (2-1 vs Toulouse, 0-2 vs Nantes) or came close at 0-1, while all three of Brest’s recent games stayed under (1-0, 2-0, 1-1), but their averages of 1.4 scored and 0.4 conceded, plus 1.41 xG for, suggest capacity to open up this opponent. Le Havre’s 1.6 goals conceded and very high xG against (2.588) indicate this could be the day Brest’s attack turns control into a higher scoreline.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Brest
Corners in last 5 matches
Le Havre
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The predicted corners total is 9.82, which fits a match where Brest are likely to have territorial dominance but Le Havre still force a few set-piece situations. Brest’s last three have produced big corner counts overall – 4-12 at Metz, 3-2 vs Marseille, 1-13 at Lille – showing they often concede plenty but don’t rely heavily on wide bombardment themselves. Le Havre’s games have been mixed on this front (3-3 vs Paris SG, 6-5 at Nantes, 1-10 vs Toulouse), hinting that when they’re pushed back, corners pile up; the corners prediction sits around average because Brest’s more measured approach may limit their own tally even as they control the game.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Brest
Shots in last 5 matches
Le Havre
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots total is 25.58, reflecting a contest where Brest should generate the bulk of attempts while Le Havre still pose some threat. Brest have faced high shot counts recently (24 at Metz, 17 vs Marseille, 20 at Lille) but remained defensively efficient, suggesting they allow efforts from less dangerous areas. Le Havre, meanwhile, have been outshot heavily (22 by Paris SG, 9 by Nantes, 25 by Toulouse) and their xG against of 2.588 tallies with a shots prediction that leans towards sustained Brest pressure.

Final Prediction

Brest’s combination of solid recent results, strong defensive metrics and more convincing xG profile gives them a clear edge over a Le Havre side conceding too many chances and struggling to find the net. With the home side favoured heavily and the model shading towards over 2.5 goals, the key factor to watch will be whether Le Havre can withstand Brest’s pressure long enough to keep the game tight. If Brest score early, the gap in confidence and underlying numbers could quickly tell.

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