Ligue 1 2025-2026: Brest vs Lens Prediction - 24 Apr 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Brest

Home Team
19%
VS

Lens

Away Team
63%
Draw: 18%
Over 2.5: 58%
Under 2.5: 42%
Goal: 56%
No Goal: 44%
Expected Corners: 9.4
Expected Shots: 24.8
Expected Spread: -0.9

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Paris FC 29 21 3 5 65 25 40 66
2 Lens 29 20 2 7 57 29 28 62
3 Lyon 30 16 6 8 45 30 15 54
4 Lille 30 16 6 8 49 34 15 54
5 Rennes 30 15 8 7 52 41 11 53
6 Marseille 30 16 4 10 58 40 18 52
7 Monaco 30 15 5 10 52 45 7 50
8 Strasbourg 29 12 7 10 46 37 9 43
9 Lorient 30 10 11 9 40 44 -4 41
10 Paris FC 30 9 11 10 40 46 -6 38
11 Toulouse 30 10 7 13 41 42 -1 37
12 Brest 29 10 7 12 38 44 -6 37
13 Angers 30 9 7 14 26 40 -14 34
14 Le Havre 30 6 12 12 25 38 -13 30
15 Nice 30 7 8 15 34 56 -22 29
16 Auxerre 30 5 10 15 25 39 -14 25
17 Nantes 30 4 8 18 25 49 -24 20
18 Metz 30 3 6 21 27 66 -39 15

Recent Trends

Brest D L L L W

  • Last Match: D vs Nantes (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Rennes (Goals: 3 - 4)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Auxerre (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Monaco (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Le Havre (Goals: 2 - 0)

Lens W L W L W

  • Last Match: W vs Toulouse (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Lille (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Angers (Goals: 5 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Lorient (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Metz (Goals: 3 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Brest

xG (avg) 1.50
xGA (avg) 1.33
Clean Sheets 1

Lens

xG (avg) 1.59
xGA (avg) 1.71
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

Lens are clear favourites here: the away win is given a 63.0% probability, with Brest’s chances at home just 19.0% and the draw at 18.0%. The model points firmly to Franck Haise’s side, currently 2nd in Ligue 1 with 62 points, overcoming a Brest team sitting 12th on 37 points. The over 2.5 goals prediction is also strong, at 58.0%, suggesting a reasonably open contest.

Match Analysis

Brest come into this one on a three‑match winless run, with one draw and two defeats. The 1-1 at Nantes showed resilience but also how easily they can be pushed back – they were out-shot 17-4 and lost the corner count 11-0. At home, the 3-4 loss to Rennes underlined both their attacking courage and defensive fragility, while the 0-3 defeat at Auxerre highlighted how vulnerable they remain on the road. Over their last five games, however, Brest’s underlying numbers are more balanced: they’ve averaged 1.8 goals scored and 1.2 conceded, with xG of 1.504 for and 1.332 against, plus one clean sheet. They’re not being outclassed, but they’re conceding too many big moments. Lens arrive with two heavy home wins wrapped around a flat performance at Lille. The 5-1 demolition of Angers and the 3-2 victory over Toulouse were dominant attacking displays, backed up by huge shot volumes: 26-16 and 41-5 respectively. The 0-3 reverse at Lille, though, showed they can be punished when the press is beaten. Over the last five, they’ve averaged 1.6 goals scored and 1.8 conceded, with xG of 1.592 for and 1.706 against and just one clean sheet, so this is not the watertight Lens of previous months – but they still carry far more firepower than Brest.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Brest
Goals in last 5 matches
Lens
Goals in last 5 matches
The over 2.5 prediction is favoured at 58.0%, and the recent scorelines back that up. Two of Brest’s last three matches went over 2.5 goals (3-4 vs Rennes, 0-3 vs Auxerre), with only the 1-1 at Nantes staying under. Two of Lens’ last three have also gone over 2.5 (5-1 vs Angers, 3-2 vs Toulouse), with just the 0-3 loss at Lille underlining their occasional off days. With Brest averaging 1.8 scored and 1.2 conceded, and Lens at 1.6 scored and 1.8 conceded, supported by both sides’ xG figures hovering around 1.5 for and against, the data leans strongly towards over 2.5 rather than under 2.5.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Brest
Corners in last 5 matches
Lens
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The predicted corners total is 9.41, which fits a game where Lens are expected to dominate territory but Brest still carry some threat. Brest’s last three show wild swings: they earned 0 corners at Nantes, then 3 vs Rennes and 3 at Auxerre, while often conceding more (11, 7 and 6 respectively). Lens, by contrast, are a corner machine at home – 14 against Toulouse and 7 against Angers – but only 3 at Lille when they were second best. This corners prediction reflects Lens’ high‑tempo, front‑foot style likely generating most of the predicted corners.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Brest
Shots in last 5 matches
Lens
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots total sits at 24.8, pointing to a match with sustained attacking phases. Brest’s recent games have seen them limited going forward (4 shots at Nantes, 10 vs Rennes, 9 at Auxerre) but consistently facing double‑digit attempts. Lens have been far more explosive: 26 shots vs Angers and a staggering 41 against Toulouse, though just 5 at Lille when their attack stalled. Given their xG figures around 1.6 for and 1.7 against, a shots prediction near 25 looks realistic, with Lens likely providing the majority of the expected shots.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Brest wins by X goals. Negative = Lens wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Brest vs Lens with expected spread of -0.9
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Brest vs Lens
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The goal spread prediction stands at -0.95 (home minus away), meaning Lens are projected to win by roughly one goal on average. Recent goal differences support this expected spread: Brest are -6 over the season and have lost 0-3 and 3-4 in two of their last three, while Lens have shown they can win big (5-1 vs Angers, 3-2 vs Toulouse) but also suffer a heavy defeat (0-3 at Lille). Combining the spread with the 63.0% away‑win probability and Lens’ superior league position and attacking metrics, the model sees the visitors as notably stronger at both ends of the pitch.

Final Prediction

Lens have the edge thanks to their superior league form, higher attacking output and ability to generate sustained pressure, especially in terms of shots and corners. Brest’s recent defensive slips against Rennes and Auxerre make them vulnerable against such a front line. The key factor to watch will be whether Brest’s defence can withstand Lens’ intensity; if they fold early, the match is likely to follow the predicted away win and over 2.5 goals pattern.

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