Ligue 1 2025-2026: Brest vs Marseille Prediction - 20 Feb 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Brest

Home Team
16%
VS

Marseille

Away Team
70%
Draw: 14%
Over 2.5: 53%
Under 2.5: 47%
Goal: 53%
No Goal: 47%
Expected Corners: 9.4
Expected Shots: 24.7

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Lens 22 17 1 4 42 17 25 52
2 Paris FC 22 16 3 3 49 19 30 51
3 Lyon 22 14 3 5 36 20 16 45
4 Marseille 22 12 4 6 48 29 19 40
5 Lille 22 10 4 8 35 31 4 34
6 Rennes 22 9 7 6 34 35 -1 34
7 Strasbourg 22 9 4 9 36 29 7 31
8 Monaco 22 9 4 9 35 34 1 31
9 Lorient 22 8 7 7 29 33 -4 31
10 Toulouse 22 8 6 8 32 26 6 30
11 Angers 22 8 5 9 22 27 -5 29
12 Brest 22 7 6 9 29 34 -5 27
13 Le Havre 22 6 8 8 20 27 -7 26
14 Nice 22 6 5 11 27 40 -13 23
15 Paris FC 22 5 7 10 26 39 -13 22
16 Auxerre 22 4 5 13 17 30 -13 17
17 Nantes 22 3 5 14 20 40 -20 14
18 Metz 22 3 4 15 22 49 -27 13

Recent Trends

Brest D W D L L

  • Last Match: D vs Lille (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Lorient (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Nice (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Toulouse (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Lyon (Goals: 1 - 2)

Marseille D L D W W

  • Last Match: D vs Strasbourg (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Paris SG (Goals: 0 - 5)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Paris FC (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Lens (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Angers (Goals: 5 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Brest

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.82
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 0.75
# Clean Sheets: 1

Marseille

Average Expected Goals (xG): 2.30
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.88
# Clean Sheets: 0

Key Prediction Insights

Marseille are clear favourites here, with a 70.0% probability of taking all three points away at Brest, who are given just a 16.0% chance of an upset and a 14.0% chance of a draw. The model leans towards a relatively open game, with an over 2.5 prediction at 53.0% probability. In the current Ligue 1 table, Marseille sit 4th on 40 points, pushing for the Champions League spots, while Brest are 12th on 27 points, closer to mid-table safety than the European race.

Match Analysis

Brest come into this match quietly consistent: unbeaten in three, with a win and two draws (2-0 vs Lorient, 1-1 at Lille, 2-2 at Nice). They’ve shown balance between defence and attack, conceding just four goals across those fixtures and keeping a clean sheet against Lorient. Their recent advanced numbers back up this solidity: over the last five games they average 1.6 goals scored and only 0.8 conceded, with xG of 1.818 for and 0.752 against, suggesting they usually create slightly more than they allow. Marseille’s recent run is more chaotic but also more explosive. They’ve drawn two of their last three (2-2 vs Strasbourg, 2-2 at Paris FC) but were heavily beaten 5-0 by Paris SG, underlining how vulnerable they can be defensively. However, they remain very dangerous going forward: over the last five matches they average 2.4 goals scored per game from 2.304 xG, but concede 2.2 goals from 1.884 xG and have not kept a single clean sheet in that stretch. That attacking firepower, combined with their stronger league position, explains why they are strong favourites despite their defensive leaks.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Brest
Goals in last 5 matches
Marseille
Goals in last 5 matches
The model goes for an over 2.5 prediction at 53.0%, edging towards a game with at least three goals. Two of Brest’s last three matches finished under 2.5 goals (2-0 vs Lorient, 1-1 vs Lille), with only the 2-2 draw at Nice going over. Marseille, by contrast, have seen all of their last three matches go over 2.5 (2-2, 0-5, 2-2), and their averages of 2.4 scored and 2.2 conceded, plus high xG at both ends, strongly support the expectation of goals rather than an under 2.5 scenario.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Brest
Corners in last 5 matches
Marseille
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The predicted corners total for this match is 9.36, pointing to a moderate corners prediction rather than an extreme. Brest’s recent corner counts have been quite varied: 1-13 at Lille, 7-7 vs Lorient, and 5-6 at Nice, showing they can be pushed back but also generate corners when they attack at home. Marseille’s last three have been tighter – 5-5, 2-5, 4-4 – reflecting a side that attacks but doesn’t rely solely on wide bombardment; this suits an expectation just under double digits in predicted corners.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Brest
Shots in last 5 matches
Marseille
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots total is 24.66, indicating a fairly active attacking game from both sides. Brest’s last three outings saw combined shot totals of 31, 24, and 27, while Marseille’s produced 22, 31, and 27, all consistent with a mid-20s to low-30s range and in line with this shots prediction. Given Marseille’s strong xG (2.304) and Brest’s decent attacking numbers (1.818 xG), the expected shots figure matches the idea of two sides capable of regularly working the goalkeeper.

Final Prediction

Marseille’s edge comes from their superior attacking output and higher league position, combined with Brest’s tendency to concede chances against stronger opponents. Brest’s recent defensive resilience and solid xG against numbers mean they won’t make it easy, but Marseille’s ability to create and convert chances should tilt the balance. A key factor to watch will be how Brest’s compact defence handles Marseille’s sustained pressure and shot volume over 90 minutes.

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