Ligue 1 2025-2026: Brest vs Metz Prediction - 23 Nov 2025
Result | Under-Over 2.5
Brest
Home Team
76%
VS
Metz
Away Team
11%
Draw: 13%
Over 2.5:
52%
Under 2.5:
48%
Goal:
51%
No Goal:
49%
Current Standings
| Pos | Team | Pl | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paris SG | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 24 | 11 | 13 | 27 |
| 2 | Marseille | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 28 | 11 | 17 | 25 |
| 3 | Lens | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 21 | 11 | 10 | 25 |
| 4 | Strasbourg | 12 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 24 | 16 | 8 | 22 |
| 5 | Lille | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 23 | 15 | 8 | 20 |
| 6 | Monaco | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 24 | 21 | 3 | 20 |
| 7 | Lyon | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 18 | 15 | 3 | 20 |
| 8 | Rennes | 12 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 19 | 17 | 2 | 18 |
| 9 | Nice | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 17 | 18 | -1 | 17 |
| 10 | Toulouse | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 18 | 16 | 2 | 16 |
| 11 | Paris FC | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 18 | 21 | -3 | 14 |
| 12 | Le Havre | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 13 | 17 | -4 | 14 |
| 13 | Angers | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 13 |
| 14 | Metz | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 12 | 27 | -15 | 11 |
| 15 | Brest | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 14 | 21 | -7 | 10 |
| 16 | Nantes | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 11 | 18 | -7 | 10 |
| 17 | Lorient | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 14 | 26 | -12 | 10 |
| 18 | Auxerre | 12 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 7 | 19 | -12 | 7 |
Recent Trends
Brest
- Last Match: vs Marseille (Goals: 0 - 3)
- 2nd Last Match: vs Lyon (Goals: 0 - 0)
- 3rd Last Match: vs Le Havre (Goals: 0 - 1)
- 4th Last Match: vs Paris SG (Goals: 0 - 3)
- 5th Last Match: vs Lorient (Goals: 3 - 3)
Metz
- Last Match: vs Nice (Goals: 2 - 1)
- 2nd Last Match: vs Nantes (Goals: 2 - 0)
- 3rd Last Match: vs Lens (Goals: 2 - 0)
- 4th Last Match: vs Lille (Goals: 1 - 6)
- 5th Last Match: vs Toulouse (Goals: 0 - 4)
Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)
Brest
Average Expected Goals (xG):
1.93
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA):
1.53
# Clean Sheets:
1
Metz
Average Expected Goals (xG):
1.20
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA):
2.91
# Clean Sheets:
2
Key Prediction Insights
The upcoming match between Brest and Metz sees a strong likelihood of a home victory, with Brest holding a 76.0% probability of winning. The game is also predicted to have over 2.5 goals, with a 52.0% chance. In the league standings, Brest is currently in the 15th position, while Metz is slightly ahead in 14th. Both teams are keenly aware of the relegation threat, making this clash crucial.
Match Analysis
Brest has struggled recently, managing only a draw against Lyon and succumbing to defeats against Marseille and Le Havre, failing to score in all three encounters. Despite their recent scoreless performances, their expected goals suggest that they have been creating opportunities, with an average of 1.932 expected goals in the last five matches. Defensively, they have been relatively stable, conceding an average of 1.2 goals per game and maintaining one clean sheet.
Metz, on the other hand, is riding a wave of success with three consecutive victories against Nice, Nantes, and Lens, scoring two goals in each match. However, they have a notably porous defense, having conceded an average of 3.6 goals in their last five games, despite keeping two clean sheets. Their expected goals conceded figure of 2.912 highlights defensive vulnerabilities that Brest may look to exploit.
Final Prediction
The prediction favors Brest for a reason: their ability to create chances despite recent poor form. Metz's defensive frailties could be costly, especially against a team with Brest's attacking potential. Watch out for how Brest capitalizes on Metz's defensive lapses, which could be the key factor that swings the match in favor of the home side.
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