Ligue 1 2025-2026: Brest vs Rennes Prediction - 4 Apr 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Brest

Home Team
32%
VS

Rennes

Away Team
44%
Draw: 23%
Over 2.5: 58%
Under 2.5: 42%
Goal: 60%
No Goal: 40%
Expected Corners: 9.7
Expected Shots: 24.2

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Paris FC 26 19 3 4 58 22 36 60
2 Lens 27 19 2 6 54 24 30 59
3 Marseille 27 15 4 8 54 35 19 49
4 Lyon 27 14 5 8 41 29 12 47
5 Lille 27 14 5 8 42 34 8 47
6 Monaco 27 14 4 9 47 38 9 46
7 Rennes 27 12 8 7 43 37 6 44
8 Strasbourg 27 11 7 9 43 33 10 40
9 Toulouse 27 10 7 10 38 32 6 37
10 Lorient 27 9 10 8 37 41 -4 37
11 Brest 27 10 6 11 34 39 -5 36
12 Angers 27 9 5 13 24 37 -13 32
13 Paris FC 27 7 10 10 32 43 -11 31
14 Le Havre 27 6 9 12 22 35 -13 27
15 Nice 27 7 6 14 32 52 -20 27
16 Auxerre 27 5 7 15 22 36 -14 22
17 Nantes 26 4 5 17 24 45 -21 17
18 Metz 27 3 5 19 25 60 -35 14

Recent Trends

Brest L L W W W

  • Last Match: L vs Auxerre (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Monaco (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Le Havre (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Metz (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Marseille (Goals: 2 - 0)

Rennes D L W W W

  • Last Match: D vs Metz (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Lille (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Nice (Goals: 4 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Toulouse (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Auxerre (Goals: 3 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Brest

xG (avg) 1.43
xGA (avg) 0.94
Clean Sheets 3

Rennes

xG (avg) 1.25
xGA (avg) 1.55
Clean Sheets 4

Key Prediction Insights

Rennes are slight favourites here, with a 44.0% chance of victory compared to Brest’s 32.0%, and the draw at 23.0%. The model points to an away win for the 7th-placed visitors over 11th-placed Brest, in a match that leans towards goals: the over 2.5 prediction is backed by a 58.0% probability. With both sides still eyeing upward movement in Ligue 1, it sets up as a high‑stakes Brittany derby.

Match Analysis

Brest come into this on the back of a mixed run: a confident 2-0 home win over Le Havre was followed by back-to-back away defeats without scoring, 0-2 at Monaco and 0-3 at Auxerre. The pattern is clear: Brest are more comfortable at home, but their recent scorelines show volatility. Underneath the results, though, the numbers are solid – 1.6 goals scored and only 0.4 conceded on average over the last five matches, with 1.434 expected goals created and just 0.94 xG allowed, plus three clean sheets. That suggests a team usually well‑organised at the back, even if the last two trips have dented confidence. Rennes, meanwhile, are also inconsistent in results but dangerous going forward. A 4-0 dismantling of Nice away showcased their attacking potential, yet they followed it with a 1-2 home defeat to Lille and a frustrating 0-0 at home to bottom‑side Metz despite dominating with 25 shots and an 8-2 corner count. Their five‑game averages – 2.0 goals scored and 1.4 conceded – underline a more open game style. However, the xG profile (1.25 for, 1.548 against) hints that they allow more chances than they create, relying on efficiency and defensive resilience, as shown by four clean sheets in their last five.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Brest
Goals in last 5 matches
Rennes
Goals in last 5 matches
The model leans to an over 2.5 prediction with a 58.0% probability, and there’s enough evidence on both sides to support it. Only one of Brest’s last three games went over 2.5 goals (the 0-3 at Auxerre), but their recent averages of 1.6 scored and 0.4 conceded, combined with xG of 1.434 for and 0.94 against, point to a side capable of both creating and limiting chances. Rennes have seen two of their last three finish over 2.5 (4-0 vs Nice, 1-2 vs Lille), and with 2.0 goals scored and 1.4 conceded on average, plus a relatively high xG conceded of 1.548, their matches tend to open up. The blend of Brest’s home edge and Rennes’ attacking rhythm tilts this away from an under 2.5 scenario.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Brest
Corners in last 5 matches
Rennes
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The predicted corners total for this match is 9.65, suggesting a game with a steady but not extreme number of set‑piece situations. Brest’s last three have produced corner counts of 3-6, 8-3 and 1-3, showing they can both dominate (as against Monaco) and sit deeper. Rennes, by contrast, have seen 8-2 vs Metz, 5-2 vs Lille and 1-7 at Nice, underlining a generally front‑foot approach at home and a more reactive stance away. This corners prediction fits two teams who like to attack but are not relentlessly wide and crossing-focused every week.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Brest
Shots in last 5 matches
Rennes
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots total stands at 24.23, which suits the recent patterns of both sides. Brest’s last three outings have featured 9-11, 13-10 and 11-14 in shots, indicating fairly balanced contests where they neither completely dominate nor get overwhelmed. Rennes have racked up 25-7, 12-8 and 12-14, showing that at their best they can bombard opponents, as they did against Metz. With Rennes averaging 1.25 xG for and Brest 1.434, the shots prediction points to a match where both sides generate a decent volume of efforts, consistent with the over 2.5 and attacking profiles.

Final Prediction

Rennes’ edge comes from their higher league position (7th vs 11th), better recent goal output and a 44.0% win probability that reflects their ability to carve out and convert chances. Brest’s defensive metrics and home form mean this is far from straightforward, but Rennes’ attacking variety and recent scoring record give them the slight advantage. The key factor to watch will be how Brest’s usually tight defence copes with Rennes’ shot volume – if the visitors find rhythm early, Brest may struggle to keep the game under control.

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