Ligue 1 2025-2026: Le Havre vs Lyon Prediction - 15 Mar 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Le Havre

Home Team
12%
VS

Lyon

Away Team
77%
Draw: 11%
Over 2.5: 51%
Under 2.5: 49%
Goal: 53%
No Goal: 47%
Expected Corners: 9.3
Expected Shots: 23.3

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Paris FC 25 18 3 4 54 22 32 57
2 Lens 25 18 2 5 48 21 27 56
3 Marseille 25 14 4 7 52 33 19 46
4 Lyon 25 14 4 7 40 27 13 46
5 Rennes 25 12 7 6 42 35 7 43
6 Lille 25 12 5 8 38 32 6 41
7 Monaco 25 12 4 9 43 37 6 40
8 Strasbourg 25 10 6 9 40 31 9 36
9 Brest 25 10 6 9 34 34 0 36
10 Lorient 25 8 10 7 35 39 -4 34
11 Angers 25 9 5 11 23 30 -7 32
12 Toulouse 25 8 7 10 33 29 4 31
13 Paris FC 25 6 9 10 29 41 -12 27
14 Le Havre 25 6 8 11 20 32 -12 26
15 Nice 25 6 6 13 30 48 -18 24
16 Auxerre 25 4 7 14 19 35 -16 19
17 Nantes 25 4 5 16 22 42 -20 17
18 Metz 25 3 4 18 22 56 -34 13

Recent Trends

Le Havre L L L W W

  • Last Match: L vs Brest (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Paris SG (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Nantes (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Toulouse (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Strasbourg (Goals: 2 - 1)

Lyon D L L W W

  • Last Match: D vs Paris FC (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Marseille (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Strasbourg (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Nice (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Nantes (Goals: 1 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Le Havre

xG (avg) 0.85
xGA (avg) 1.79
Clean Sheets 0

Lyon

xG (avg) 1.70
xGA (avg) 1.36
Clean Sheets 2

Key Prediction Insights

Lyon come into this one as heavy favourites, with a 77.0% probability of taking all three points away at Le Havre, who have just a 12.0% chance of an upset and sit 14th in Ligue 1 on 26 points. Lyon are 4th with 46 points and chasing the Champions League places, and the model leans towards an open game, with an over 2.5 prediction at 51.0% and a slight edge towards both teams scoring (goal probability 53.0%).

Match Analysis

Le Havre arrive in poor immediate form: three straight defeats, all without scoring – 0-2 at Brest, 0-1 at home to Paris SG, and 0-2 at Nantes. The concern is not just the results, but the lack of cutting edge; they mustered 14 shots at Brest but only 6 at Nantes and couldn’t convert in any of them. Defensively, the pattern is also worrying: an average of 1.792 expected goals conceded over their last five outings and no clean sheets in that period suggests they are allowing good chances even when the scoreline stays tight. Lyon haven’t exactly been ruthless in their last three, but they look far more dangerous. A 1-1 home draw with Paris FC was followed by two high-intensity away defeats – 2-3 at Marseille and 1-3 at Strasbourg – showing they can both score and be exposed. Over their last five games they are averaging 2.4 goals scored and 1.8 conceded, backed by 1.702 xG for and 1.36 xG against. That attacking output, especially compared with Le Havre’s 0.848 xG for in the same span, underlines why the visitors are strongly fancied.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Le Havre
Goals in last 5 matches
Lyon
Goals in last 5 matches
The over 2.5 prediction is favoured at 51.0%, and Lyon’s profile is the main driver. Two of Lyon’s last three matches have gone over 2.5 goals (2-3 v Marseille, 1-3 v Strasbourg), while all three of Le Havre’s recent fixtures finished under 2.5, each ending with two goals or fewer. Even so, Lyon’s 2.4 goals scored and 1.8 conceded on average, plus their significantly higher xG, suggest that if the away attack clicks, this is likelier to push over rather than sit in a cagey under 2.5 zone.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Le Havre
Corners in last 5 matches
Lyon
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The predicted corners total stands at 9.34, which fits with what both sides have shown. Le Havre’s last three games have produced 4, 6 and 11 corners respectively, with them generally sharing the count fairly evenly (3-1, 3-3, 6-5). Lyon, meanwhile, have been more volatile: they dominated Paris FC 8-2 in corners, but were second best away to Marseille (1-8) and Strasbourg (2-4). With Lyon likely to press higher and spend more time in the final third, the corners prediction around the 9–10 mark looks realistic.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Le Havre
Shots in last 5 matches
Lyon
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots figure of 23.32 also fits the recent patterns. Le Havre’s last three matches saw combined shot totals of 25, 32 and 15, while Lyon’s had 28, 30 and 17, so a shots prediction in the low-20s is a reasonable midpoint given Le Havre’s tendency to be more cautious. Lyon’s stronger xG numbers and recent attacking form hint that they should generate the majority of these expected shots, particularly if they take control early.

Final Prediction

Lyon’s superior league position, higher scoring rate, and stronger underlying numbers give them a clear edge over a Le Havre side stuck in a scoreless, three-game losing run. The key factor to watch will be how quickly Lyon can turn their territorial and shooting advantage into goals; if they strike early, Le Havre may be forced into a more open game than they would like.

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