Ligue 1 2025-2026: Le Havre vs Metz Prediction - 26 Apr 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Le Havre

Home Team
59%
VS

Metz

Away Team
21%
Draw: 21%
Over 2.5: 49%
Under 2.5: 51%
Goal: 52%
No Goal: 48%
Expected Corners: 9.4
Expected Shots: 26.1
Expected Spread: +0.5

Also available in Claude. Query these predictions in plain language — our native connector lets Claude call our models on demand, no code.

Set it up

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Paris FC 29 21 3 5 65 25 40 66
2 Lens 29 20 2 7 57 29 28 62
3 Lyon 30 16 6 8 45 30 15 54
4 Lille 30 16 6 8 49 34 15 54
5 Rennes 30 15 8 7 52 41 11 53
6 Marseille 30 16 4 10 58 40 18 52
7 Monaco 30 15 5 10 52 45 7 50
8 Strasbourg 29 12 7 10 46 37 9 43
9 Lorient 30 10 11 9 40 44 -4 41
10 Paris FC 30 9 11 10 40 46 -6 38
11 Toulouse 30 10 7 13 41 42 -1 37
12 Brest 29 10 7 12 38 44 -6 37
13 Angers 30 9 7 14 26 40 -14 34
14 Le Havre 30 6 12 12 25 38 -13 30
15 Nice 30 7 8 15 34 56 -22 29
16 Auxerre 30 5 10 15 25 39 -14 25
17 Nantes 30 4 8 18 25 49 -24 20
18 Metz 30 3 6 21 27 66 -39 15

Recent Trends

Le Havre D D D L D

  • Last Match: D vs Angers (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Nice (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Auxerre (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Paris FC (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Lyon (Goals: 0 - 0)

Metz L L D D L

  • Last Match: L vs Paris FC (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Marseille (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Nantes (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Rennes (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Toulouse (Goals: 3 - 4)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Le Havre

xG (avg) 0.77
xGA (avg) 2.24
Clean Sheets 1

Metz

xG (avg) 0.31
xGA (avg) 2.20
Clean Sheets 2

Key Prediction Insights

Le Havre are favoured to take all three points at home, with a 59.0% chance of victory against bottom‑placed Metz, who are given just a 21.0% chance; the draw is also at 21.0%. With Le Havre sitting 14th on 30 points and Metz rooted to 18th on 15 points, the model leans towards a tight home win. The goals market points to an under 2.5 outcome, with that line given a 51% edge over the 49.0% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Match Analysis

Le Havre come into this one on a run of three straight 1‑1 draws, away at Angers and Nice and at home to Auxerre. That sequence underlines their solidity but also their lack of cutting edge: they find a goal, then struggle to kill games off. Over the last five matches they’ve averaged 1.0 goal scored and just 0.8 conceded, with one clean sheet, numbers that fit a side more comfortable in a controlled, low‑margin contest than in a shoot‑out. Metz’s situation is far more alarming. They have taken just one point from their last three games, losing 1‑3 at home to Paris FC and 1‑3 away at Marseille before a goalless draw against Nantes. Their last five matches tell the same story: 0.2 goals scored on average, 2.0 conceded, and a miserable 0.312 xG created per game against 2.202 xG conceded. Even with two clean sheets in that run, their overall trend is of a team that suffers defensively and offers very little threat in attack, which explains both their 18th place and the strong home win tilt in the probabilities.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Le Havre
Goals in last 5 matches
Metz
Goals in last 5 matches
The under 2.5 prediction is backed at 51%, and the recent scorelines support it. All three of Le Havre’s latest matches finished 1‑1, so 3 out of 3 went under 2.5 goals. Metz have seen two of their last three go over (both 1‑3 defeats) and one under (0‑0 v Nantes), but their five‑game averages of 0.2 scored and 2.0 conceded, along with 0.774 xG for Le Havre and just 0.312 xG for Metz, still point towards a cagey game more likely to fall just under 2.5.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Le Havre
Corners in last 5 matches
Metz
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction sits at an expected total of 9.43, in line with what both sides have produced recently. Le Havre’s last three matches saw combined corner counts of 7, 7 and 10, while Metz’s produced 11, 11 and 9, suggesting that around 9–10 corners is a reasonable band for the predicted corners. With neither team especially dominant going forward but both spending time in their opponents’ third without being clinical, a steady drip of corners rather than an avalanche looks likely.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Le Havre
Shots in last 5 matches
Metz
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots total is 26.1, which matches recent patterns. Le Havre’s last three games featured 27, 26 and 22 total efforts, while Metz’s had 28, 24 and a striking 25 against Nantes, supporting a shots prediction in the mid‑20s. Given the modest xG figures for both sides, that suggests plenty of attempts but not always from high‑quality positions, reinforcing the idea of a low‑scoring contest despite a decent shot volume.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Le Havre wins by X goals. Negative = Metz wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Le Havre vs Metz with expected spread of +0.5
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Le Havre vs Metz
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The goal spread prediction has Le Havre favoured by +0.51, reflecting a narrow expected margin rather than a rout. Over their last three, Le Havre have a goal difference of 0 (three 1‑1s), whereas Metz are at -4 across the same span, with those two 1‑3 defeats dragging them down. The expected spread aligns with the 59.0% home‑win probability and the contrast between Le Havre’s organised defence and Metz’s frail back line and toothless attack.

Final Prediction

Le Havre’s greater defensive reliability and home advantage give them the edge over a Metz side that simply does not score enough and concedes too much. The key factor to watch will be whether Metz can generate anything close to sustained attacking pressure; if they cannot lift that 0.312 xG trend, Le Havre’s patience and structure should be enough to grind out the predicted home win.

Get Daily Football Predictions

Enjoyed this analysis? Subscribe to our Telegram channel and receive daily AI-driven football predictions directly on your phone.

Join Our Telegram Channel