Ligue 1 2025-2026: Le Havre vs Paris SG Prediction - 28 Feb 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Le Havre

Home Team
1%
VS

Paris SG

Away Team
98%
Draw: 1%
Over 2.5: 52%
Under 2.5: 48%
Goal: 52%
No Goal: 48%
Expected Corners: 9.2
Expected Shots: 23.1

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Paris SG 23 17 3 3 52 19 33 54
2 Lens 23 17 1 5 44 20 24 52
3 Lyon 23 14 3 6 37 23 14 45
4 Marseille 23 12 4 7 48 31 17 40
5 Lille 23 11 4 8 36 31 5 37
6 Rennes 23 10 7 6 37 35 2 37
7 Strasbourg 23 10 4 9 39 30 9 34
8 Monaco 23 10 4 9 38 36 2 34
9 Lorient 23 8 8 7 32 36 -4 32
10 Toulouse 23 8 7 8 33 27 6 31
11 Brest 23 8 6 9 31 34 -3 30
12 Angers 23 8 5 10 22 28 -6 29
13 Le Havre 23 6 8 9 20 29 -9 26
14 Nice 23 6 6 11 30 43 -13 24
15 Paris FC 23 5 8 10 27 40 -13 23
16 Auxerre 23 4 5 14 17 33 -16 17
17 Nantes 23 4 5 14 22 40 -18 17
18 Metz 23 3 4 16 22 52 -30 13

Recent Trends

Le Havre L W W L D

  • Last Match: L vs Nantes (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Toulouse (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Strasbourg (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Lens (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Monaco (Goals: 0 - 0)

Paris SG W L W W W

  • Last Match: W vs Metz (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Rennes (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Marseille (Goals: 5 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Strasbourg (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Auxerre (Goals: 1 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Le Havre

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.10
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.23
# Clean Sheets: 1

Paris SG

Average Expected Goals (xG): 2.19
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.02
# Clean Sheets: 3

Key Prediction Insights

Paris SG are overwhelming favourites here, with a 98.0% probability of an away win against Le Havre, who sit 13th in Ligue 1, while PSG top the table with 54 points from 23 matches. The model leans towards an over 2.5 prediction at 52.0%, suggesting a decent chance of a high‑scoring game despite Le Havre’s generally modest attack.

Match Analysis

Le Havre come into this one with some quiet momentum at home: back‑to‑back 2–1 wins over Toulouse and Strasbourg at their own ground, either side of a 2–0 defeat away at Nantes. Those results underline a team that can be competitive and organised, especially at home, but still lacks the firepower to dominate matches. Their recent numbers back that up: 1.2 goals scored and just 0.6 conceded on average over the last five, with expected goals at 1.098 for and 1.234 against. They are overperforming slightly at the back relative to xG conceded, which will be severely tested by the league leaders. PSG’s recent form has been more volatile in terms of scorelines, but the underlying dominance is clear. They dismantled Marseille 5–0 and brushed aside Metz 3–0, either side of a 3–1 defeat at Rennes in which they still produced 22 shots and 8 corners. Over their last five, they average 1.4 goals scored and 1.4 conceded, but the big indicator is their xG: 2.194 created and only 1.024 conceded per match, alongside three clean sheets. Those figures suggest a side consistently creating better chances than the raw goal tally shows, and generally controlling games territorially.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Le Havre
Goals in last 5 matches
Paris SG
Goals in last 5 matches
The over 2.5 prediction comes in narrowly on top at 52.0%, and the recent goal patterns support a leaning in that direction. Two of Le Havre’s last three matches have gone over 2.5 goals (both 2–1 wins), with only the 2–0 loss at Nantes staying under. For PSG, all of their last three outings have gone over 2.5, with scorelines of 3–0, 1–3 and 5–0. Combined with PSG’s strong attacking xG of 2.194 per game and Le Havre conceding 1.234 xG on average, the balance tilts slightly towards a match that produces at least three goals rather than an under 2.5 scenario.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Le Havre
Corners in last 5 matches
Paris SG
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction points to around 9.2 total corners, which fits with the recent data for both sides. Le Havre’s last three have produced 11, 11 and 12 total corners, reflecting matches where they often concede territory and rely on counter-attacks or set‑pieces. PSG’s games have seen 5, 13 and 7 corners, with their high pressing and sustained pressure typically generating chances from wide areas. With PSG expected to attack for long spells and Le Havre defending deep, a total close to the predicted corners figure of around nine looks realistic.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Le Havre
Shots in last 5 matches
Paris SG
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots total is 23.08, which aligns with the recent profiles of both teams. Le Havre’s last three games saw them register 6, 5 and 15 shots while conceding 9, 25 and 10 – numbers that show they often spend long spells without the ball. PSG, meanwhile, have fired off 17, 22 and 22 shots in their recent matches, illustrating the volume behind their strong xG of 2.194. This shots prediction matches the picture of PSG carrying the attacking burden while Le Havre try to make rare opportunities count.

Final Prediction

PSG’s edge is clear: top of the league, far superior attacking metrics, and a side that routinely outshoots and outchances its opponents. Le Havre’s compact shape and recent home wins offer some resistance, but the sheer weight of PSG’s chance creation should tell over 90 minutes. The key factor to watch will be how long Le Havre can keep PSG out; if the visitors score early, the contest could quickly tilt towards the kind of open game the numbers are pointing to.

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