Ligue 1 2025-2026: Le Havre vs Strasbourg Prediction - 8 Feb 2026
Result | Under-Over 2.5
Le Havre
Home Team
31%
VS
Strasbourg
Away Team
46%
Draw: 23%
Over 2.5:
48%
Under 2.5:
52%
Goal:
52%
No Goal:
48%
Current Standings
| Pos | Team | Pl | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paris SG | 20 | 15 | 3 | 2 | 43 | 16 | 27 | 48 |
| 2 | Lens | 20 | 15 | 1 | 4 | 34 | 16 | 18 | 46 |
| 3 | Marseille | 20 | 12 | 3 | 5 | 46 | 22 | 24 | 39 |
| 4 | Lyon | 20 | 12 | 3 | 5 | 33 | 20 | 13 | 39 |
| 5 | Lille | 20 | 10 | 2 | 8 | 34 | 30 | 4 | 32 |
| 6 | Rennes | 20 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 30 | 31 | -1 | 31 |
| 7 | Strasbourg | 20 | 9 | 3 | 8 | 33 | 25 | 8 | 30 |
| 8 | Toulouse | 20 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 31 | 23 | 8 | 30 |
| 9 | Lorient | 20 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 27 | 31 | -4 | 28 |
| 10 | Monaco | 20 | 8 | 3 | 9 | 32 | 33 | -1 | 27 |
| 11 | Angers | 20 | 7 | 5 | 8 | 21 | 25 | -4 | 26 |
| 12 | Brest | 20 | 6 | 5 | 9 | 26 | 33 | -7 | 23 |
| 13 | Nice | 20 | 6 | 4 | 10 | 27 | 38 | -11 | 22 |
| 14 | Paris FC | 20 | 5 | 6 | 9 | 26 | 34 | -8 | 21 |
| 15 | Le Havre | 20 | 4 | 8 | 8 | 16 | 25 | -9 | 20 |
| 16 | Nantes | 20 | 3 | 5 | 12 | 19 | 36 | -17 | 14 |
| 17 | Auxerre | 20 | 3 | 4 | 13 | 14 | 29 | -15 | 13 |
| 18 | Metz | 20 | 3 | 3 | 14 | 21 | 46 | -25 | 12 |
Recent Trends
Le Havre
- Last Match: vs Lens (Goals: 0 - 1)
- 2nd Last Match: vs Monaco (Goals: 0 - 0)
- 3rd Last Match: vs Rennes (Goals: 1 - 1)
- 4th Last Match: vs Angers (Goals: 2 - 1)
- 5th Last Match: vs Lyon (Goals: 0 - 1)
Strasbourg
- Last Match: vs Paris SG (Goals: 1 - 2)
- 2nd Last Match: vs Lille (Goals: 4 - 1)
- 3rd Last Match: vs Metz (Goals: 2 - 1)
- 4th Last Match: vs Nice (Goals: 1 - 1)
- 5th Last Match: vs Lorient (Goals: 0 - 0)
Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)
Le Havre
Average Expected Goals (xG):
1.10
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA):
0.85
# Clean Sheets:
1
Strasbourg
Average Expected Goals (xG):
1.51
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA):
2.01
# Clean Sheets:
1
Key Prediction Insights
Strasbourg are slight favourites here, with a 46.0% chance of victory compared to Le Havre’s 31.0%, and the draw at 23.0%. The model leans towards an away win and a tight game, projecting under 2.5 goals (48.0% for over suggests a very balanced goal line). In the table, Strasbourg are pushing the European spots in 7th on 30 points, while Le Havre sit 15th on 20 points and still looking nervously over their shoulders at the relegation zone.
Match Analysis
Le Havre come into this on a three‑match winless run but have been hard to break down: a 1–0 loss at Lens, followed by a 0–0 home draw with Monaco and a 1–1 draw away at Rennes. Their last five games back that up: they score just 0.6 goals on average but also concede only 0.6, with one clean sheet. Interestingly, their expected goals numbers (1.1 xG for, 0.848 xG against) suggest they are creating and restricting chances a bit better than the raw scorelines show.
Strasbourg’s recent form is more volatile but more dangerous in attack: a narrow 2–1 home loss to Paris SG between a 4–1 win at Lille and a 2–1 home win over Metz. Over the last five, they average 1.2 goals scored but concede 1.6, and their expected figures (1.508 xG for, 2.012 xG against) point to open games at both ends. With only one clean sheet in that span, they tend to give opponents opportunities, but their attack often bails them out.
Final Prediction
Strasbourg’s stronger league position and more productive attack give them a slight edge over a defensively solid but goal‑shy Le Havre. The clash between Le Havre’s compact back line and Strasbourg’s more adventurous forward play should decide this one. A key factor to watch will be whether Le Havre can finally convert their underlying chance creation into goals against a Strasbourg defence that does allow opportunities.
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